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Old 11-21-2017, 11:33 PM
 
Location: la la land
27,167 posts, read 11,349,748 times
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The University of Chicago surveyed 42 leading economists and found exactly one who believes the Republican claim that their tax bill will grow the economy. In the second question, they were asked If the US enacts a tax bill similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate — and assuming no other changes in tax or spending policy — the US debt-to-GDP ratio will be substantially higher a decade from now than under the status quo, none disagreed.
http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/tax-reform-2
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Old 11-22-2017, 12:02 AM
 
24,714 posts, read 26,785,278 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cttransplant85 View Post
According to Heritage. I believe it; Q4 is pacing around 4% and this is before anything is done on the tax side. There are no obvious bubbles like we had in 08. This would put major upward pressure on wages. Lets hope it gets done.


How the GOP Tax Bill Will Affect the Economy | The Heritage Foundation
Somehow I doubt it. We didn't even have sustained 4% growth in the late 1990s. But hey, if it happens, I welcome it, assuming it's actually sustainable.
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Old 11-22-2017, 05:02 AM
 
Location: Los Angeles
2,422 posts, read 1,326,154 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elliott_CA View Post
Tax reform has a 20% corporate tax rate on domestic operations but only 12.5% on overseas operations. This is an incentive for corporations to relocate operations overseas, and could very well lead to increased unemployment and layoffs in the U.S. You won't get 5% GDP growth in that scenario.
You are confusing statutory corporate tax rates and effective corporate tax rates....

While it is true that U.S. statutory rates are higher than those of other countries, the effective rates faced by U.S. corporations (i.e., the taxes they actually pay) are roughly equivalent to the effective tax rates of our large industrial peers: the difference between U.S. average effective corporate tax rate and the weighted average of rates in other advanced economies is less than a single percentage point.

‘Competitive’ distractions: Cutting corporate tax rates will not create jobs or boost incomes for the vast majority of American families | Economic Policy Institute

U.S. corporate profits are at all time highs....you are living in a fantasyland.

Last edited by Astral_Weeks; 11-22-2017 at 05:14 AM..
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Old 11-22-2017, 05:34 AM
 
11,313 posts, read 5,839,816 times
Reputation: 20965
Quote:
Originally Posted by Astral_Weeks View Post
You are confusing statutory corporate tax rates and effective corporate tax rates....

While it is true that U.S. statutory rates are higher than those of other countries, the effective rates faced by U.S. corporations (i.e., the taxes they actually pay) are roughly equivalent to the effective tax rates of our large industrial peers: the difference between U.S. average effective corporate tax rate and the weighted average of rates in other advanced economies is less than a single percentage point.

‘Competitive’ distractions: Cutting corporate tax rates will not create jobs or boost incomes for the vast majority of American families | Economic Policy Institute

U.S. corporate profits are at all time highs....you are living in a fantasyland.
The problem is that the playing field for effective corporate Federal income taxes isn't level. Some large corporations have bought and paid for politicians who have given them enormous loopholes so they avoid most or all of the tax. Companies with mostly US-centric business who can't hide profits offshore and who don't have the big writeoffs get slaughtered. Walmart. Verizon. Home Depot. United Technologies. They're paying big taxes. It would be much better to stop distorting the market and lower the rate while closing the loopholes. Keep it revenue-neutral. If you do that, there will be big losers. Energy companies. GE. They'll have to start paying their fair share instead of manipulating politicians to escape paying Federal corporate income taxes.
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Old 11-22-2017, 05:44 AM
 
11,313 posts, read 5,839,816 times
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Originally Posted by DKM View Post
Factually incorrect. Stick with the facts please.
It's sort-a correct. Dubya juiced the economy prior to his 2nd election to avoid a mild cyclical recession. The collapse four years later probably could have been avoided if we'd had a mild recession in 2003 and if the sub-prime mortgage nonsense had been stopped.

If the Trump tax give-away actually happens and we continue to juice the economy with yet another $1.5 trillion in deficit spending, we're risking a collapse that makes the Great Recession look tame. The traditional fiscal and monetary tools can't be used. We already have historically low interest rates. We already are running enormous deficits. We're risking a currency collapse as the debt to GDP ratio grows to Japan levels. Personally, I'd rather not go through a Weimar Republic.
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Old 11-22-2017, 07:15 AM
 
Location: USA
7,456 posts, read 5,444,530 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
It's sort-a correct. Dubya juiced the economy prior to his 2nd election to avoid a mild cyclical recession. The collapse four years later probably could have been avoided if we'd had a mild recession in 2003 and if the sub-prime mortgage nonsense had been stopped.

If the Trump tax give-away actually happens and we continue to juice the economy with yet another $1.5 trillion in deficit spending, we're risking a collapse that makes the Great Recession look tame. The traditional fiscal and monetary tools can't be used. We already have historically low interest rates. We already are running enormous deficits. We're risking a currency collapse as the debt to GDP ratio grows to Japan levels. Personally, I'd rather not go through a Weimar Republic.
Yep - and if happens, rest assured that all the out of work yokels in red states will blame "Obama" for it. Partisan lunacy like that is killing our nation, along with astounding ignorance, such as considering taxes the same as "stealing" while expecting magical free money to fund our nation, infrastructure, etc. This right-wing lunacy really needs to be stopped. It didn't work under that idiot Dubya, and it won't work under that idiot Trump.
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Old 11-22-2017, 07:16 AM
 
3,529 posts, read 2,173,136 times
Reputation: 2636
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
It's sort-a correct. Dubya juiced the economy prior to his 2nd election to avoid a mild cyclical recession. The collapse four years later probably could have been avoided if we'd had a mild recession in 2003 and if the sub-prime mortgage nonsense had been stopped.

If the Trump tax give-away actually happens and we continue to juice the economy with yet another $1.5 trillion in deficit spending, we're risking a collapse that makes the Great Recession look tame. The traditional fiscal and monetary tools can't be used. We already have historically low interest rates. We already are running enormous deficits. We're risking a currency collapse as the debt to GDP ratio grows to Japan levels. Personally, I'd rather not go through a Weimar Republic.
I think it's worth remembering that the Weimar Republic was overthrown by the Nazis due to the deflation occurring in Germany in the 30s.
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Old 11-22-2017, 09:36 AM
 
11,313 posts, read 5,839,816 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankMiller View Post
I think it's worth remembering that the Weimar Republic was overthrown by the Nazis due to the deflation occurring in Germany in the 30s.
The Weimar Republic was overthrown by the Nazis because people were starving. A complete currency collapse. Massive unemployment. No safety net. Needing a wheelbarrow of cash to buy a loaf of bread is inflation, not deflation. In that kind of environment, you'll vote for or support anybody who promises to make America great again.
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Old 11-22-2017, 09:40 AM
 
4,202 posts, read 1,537,227 times
Reputation: 5265
Quote:
Originally Posted by Astral_Weeks View Post
You are confusing statutory corporate tax rates and effective corporate tax rates....

While it is true that U.S. statutory rates are higher than those of other countries, the effective rates faced by U.S. corporations (i.e., the taxes they actually pay) are roughly equivalent to the effective tax rates of our large industrial peers: the difference between U.S. average effective corporate tax rate and the weighted average of rates in other advanced economies is less than a single percentage point.

‘Competitive’ distractions: Cutting corporate tax rates will not create jobs or boost incomes for the vast majority of American families | Economic Policy Institute

U.S. corporate profits are at all time highs....you are living in a fantasyland.
Woooosh.... that's the sound of my point flying over your head. I am not arguing that tax rates for US corporations are too high, too low or will or will not create jobs.

The only point I am making is that if the domestic and foreign corporate tax rates are different -- regardless of what they are -- the very existence of a differential can create an incentive for corporations to change their mix of domestic vs. overseas operations. That is all.
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Old 11-22-2017, 10:36 AM
 
3,529 posts, read 2,173,136 times
Reputation: 2636
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
The Weimar Republic was overthrown by the Nazis because people were starving. A complete currency collapse. Massive unemployment. No safety net. Needing a wheelbarrow of cash to buy a loaf of bread is inflation, not deflation. In that kind of environment, you'll vote for or support anybody who promises to make America great again.
That is incorrect. Although hyperinflation was a problem for Germany after WWI, the introduction of the Rentenmark in 1923 and subsequent policy essentially solved the inflation issue. It was the deflationary economy of 1929-1932 that the Nazis rode into power.
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