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Old 11-20-2017, 07:23 PM
 
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According to Heritage. I believe it; Q4 is pacing around 4% and this is before anything is done on the tax side. There are no obvious bubbles like we had in 08. This would put major upward pressure on wages. Lets hope it gets done.


How the GOP Tax Bill Will Affect the Economy | The Heritage Foundation
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Old 11-20-2017, 07:24 PM
 
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if*
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Old 11-20-2017, 07:26 PM
 
Location: AZ
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Lol...let's not pretend that Heritage isn't an ultra-biased think-tank....
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Old 11-20-2017, 07:36 PM
 
1,760 posts, read 580,610 times
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Originally Posted by subaru5555 View Post
Lol...let's not pretend that Heritage isn't an ultra-biased think-tank....
There's nothing that would lead me to believe it can not be done. We have a dynamic economy that's being crushed by the weight of government just waiting to be unleashed. Hopefully it gets done.
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Old 11-20-2017, 07:47 PM
 
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Originally Posted by cttransplant85 View Post
There's nothing that would lead me to believe it can not be done. We have a dynamic economy that's being crushed by the weight of government just waiting to be unleashed. Hopefully it gets done.
It's amazing how people can convince themselves the economy is struggling when practically every metric says otherwise.
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Old 11-20-2017, 08:28 PM
 
Location: la la land
27,138 posts, read 11,338,839 times
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Originally Posted by cttransplant85 View Post
According to Heritage. I believe it; Q4 is pacing around 4% and this is before anything is done on the tax side. There are no obvious bubbles like we had in 08. This would put major upward pressure on wages. Lets hope it gets done.
How the GOP Tax Bill Will Affect the Economy | The Heritage Foundation
How would it create upward pressure on wages?

But to your point, 3% sustained is an optimistic estimate, and probably the most we can hope for because we have a mature economy.

"That last bout of sustained high growth was largely due to the stock market bubble. And at present many economists question whether continuous growth at such rates will be achievable in the foreseeable future. For one thing, apart from immigration, there aren't as many ways to rapidly increase the size of the U.S. workforce. The boomer wave is long past. And while women are still underrepresented in the labor pool, such a large share have already joined that upping their numbers won't have the same impact as it did from the 1960s to 2000."
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...he-u-s-economy
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Old 11-20-2017, 08:32 PM
 
Location: AZ
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Originally Posted by cttransplant85 View Post
There's nothing that would lead me to believe it can not be done. We have a dynamic economy that's being crushed by the weight of government just waiting to be unleashed. Hopefully it gets done.
That kind of growth is unrealistic, if not impossible.
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Old 11-20-2017, 09:16 PM
 
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Originally Posted by cttransplant85 View Post
There's nothing that would lead me to believe it can not be done. We have a dynamic economy that's being crushed by the weight of government just waiting to be unleashed. Hopefully it gets done.
With the drag itíll create on the well performing blue states will it magically bring back the textile mills and factories in the rust belt?
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Old 11-20-2017, 11:48 PM
 
2,767 posts, read 1,494,078 times
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Originally Posted by cttransplant85 View Post
There's nothing that would lead me to believe it can not be done. We have a dynamic economy that's being crushed by the weight of government just waiting to be unleashed. Hopefully it gets done.
ROTFL

You either have:

1) Been hitting the crack pipe frequently
or
2) Very little command of economics
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Old 11-21-2017, 12:46 AM
 
Location: Los Angeles
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Passing a large unpaid for tax cut 7 or 8 years into a recovery is just plain reckless. Real tax reform that is basically revenue neutral would be another story.

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth comes from two main sources: 1) growth in the labor force and 2) growth in productivity.

LABOR FORCE GROWTH
The economy is already running at or near full employment. It’s true that the labor participation rate is at a relatively low at 63%, down from 66.4% in January 2007. However, the aging of the U.S. population leaves little hope of reversing the trend line.

The most recent increases in the workforce occurred in the 1970s through the 1990s, with the entry of baby boomers and women. But the baby boomers of both sexes are retiring now. Unless immigration is drastically INCREASED the U.S. workforce will continue to shrink at least for the next 15 to 20 years.

PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
That places the onus on productivity growth. The biggest driver of productivity growth is technological change. However, as an advanced economy all the "low hanging fruit" of technological innovation for the U.S. is BEHIND us. Read Robert Gordon (Northwestern Univ.) who has written extensively on this matter.

https://press.princeton.edu/titles/10544.html

The last time we grew above 4% was during the 90's when the gains from Info. Technology were being felt. Smart phones, Uber and Driverless cars are simply not as impactful innovations as say running water, the internal combustion engine or the initial wave of computer technology were during earlier decades in our history.

The U.S. is a really large and complex economy, and taxes are a relatively small part of the picture. They are certainly not unimportant. But even an absolutely perfectly crafted tax reform package would only add a miniscule amount to GDP growth.
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