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Old 01-26-2018, 09:31 AM
Status: "delete" (set 21 days ago)
 
3,189 posts, read 1,274,360 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigCityDreamer View Post
The bottom line is: If you don't want to live in a capitalist country, then move out of America.

There are quite a few non-capitalist countries out there to choose from.
I don't think Americans have any idea what's around the corner.

Not only do Japanese and European central banks plan on liquiditating their US equity holdings in 2018, which by the way amounted to over $2T in FY17 as reported by Bank of America, but you have several other upcoming problems that will additional stress unlike you've ever had to deal with before.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...e-record-highs

Now, most people just throw money into index funds or individual stocks or whatever and don't really pay attention to order book, so they don't really understand what's going on. They don't see the algorithms and the spoofing and they don't understand what a "walk up" is.

That's because they've been protected by over $15T of liquidity injections by central banks.

This means NO PRICE DISCOVERY.

Right?

That's only one problem. I assume the FED will take the place of these banks, but that doesn't really resolve any problems, does it?

I also doubt it will work, as there will likely be a capital outflow out of the US.

Furthermore, China is working hard to take the place of the Petro-Dollar by using gold backed futures and will begin large scale purchases of crude in March.

Also, your tight oil industry is in SHAMBLES.

https://www.economist.com/news/busin...spree-americas

"Shale’s second coming is testament to Texan grit. But the industry’s never-say-die spirit may explain why it has done next to nothing about its dire finances. The business has burned up cash for 34 of the last 40 quarters, according to figures on the top 60 listed E&P firms collected by Bloomberg, a data provider. With the exception of airlines, Chinese state enterprises and Silicon Valley unicorns—private firms valued at more than $1bn—shale firms are on an unparalleled money-losing streak. About $11bn was torched in the latest quarter, as capital expenditures exceeded cashflows. The cash-burn rate may well rise again this year."

[b]ut the fact that the industry makes huge accounting losses has not changed. It has burned up cash whether the oil price was at $100, as in 2014, or at about $50, as it was during the past three months. The biggest 60 firms in aggregate have used up $9bn per quarter on average for the past five years. As a result the industry has barely improved its finances despite raising $70bn of equity since 2014. Much of the new money got swallowed up by losses, so total debt remains high, at just over $200bn."

I've done the math previously. I've showed the math.

You are due for an oil shock. It will be devastating to your economy. Real estate prices will crash. The stock market will crash. There will be no relief because the dollar will not be desirable.

The only good that will do is that it will temporarily allow you to sell exports for cheaper.

I'm not sure what else I need to say. Do the math.

This is not a six sigma event. Not for me.
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Old 01-26-2018, 10:04 AM
 
Location: Beautiful Rhode Island
6,296 posts, read 10,463,432 times
Reputation: 6060
Quote:
Originally Posted by eliza61nyc View Post
So Author is a has some points but seems to have stretched them to a forgone conclusion.

1) Opiod abuse. first America at various periods have always had substance abuse problems. I guess no one remembered Crack cocaine that devastated entire cities. LSD in the 60's had people jumping off bridges. Now truthfully I'm a little surprised that we are even trying to fix this crisis. when crack was a problem no one gave a hoot because it was mainly black folks. so the fact that we are paying attention to the epidemic is progress. but the real fact is that We have always had substance abuse issues.

2) Elderly. obviously this guy does not know history. Once again America has always treated it's elderly poorly. How does he think Social security came about? That started in the 30's to ensure that when people got old they would have a minimum level of care. What do you think happened to old folks prior to that? if they did not have family then they pretty much where up a creek without a paddle.

3) social/familiar fabric. It is not "breaking" it's changing. back in the 60's most families lived with 40 miles of each other. that provided a lot of support. Now it is not the case, I had 3 siblings, one is deceased. I live in the south Jersey area, my brother lives in DC, my other brother lives in Vegas and my elders are in Charleston SC and most cousins are in NYC where we grew up. WE are extremely close but jobs, spouses and other issues have moved us to various places.

Also we are living longer, living with Grandma and Grandpa back in the day may have meant having an elder for 70 years , the average life span in the 60's was 67 years old, now it's up to 80's

4) Sheer number of people. In 1860 America had about 31 million people living in rural farm type situations. In 2017 America had 310 million. lol, you've got 10X's the number of people and you still think life is going to be like 1955??


About the only thing author said IMO that Might be remotely true is the rash of school shootings. every thing else he pretty much has extrapolated into some sort of Armageddon scenario
I tend to agree with your estimation of his essay. He doesn't seem to know much American history- don't know whether he's American born or not, but he also doesn't seem to get the American culture of individualism. The Marlboro man don't want your stinking help, all he wants is his gun and to be left alone and unregulated.

One issue that is big and relatively new is this age of instant information- even Marshall McLuhan's head would be spinning. Copycats multiply so fast and school shootings are nothing but kids acting out as copycats given neglectful parents and too much opportunity.
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Old 01-26-2018, 10:07 AM
 
Location: Shawnee-on-Delaware, PA
3,673 posts, read 3,253,057 times
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So do we buy gold now?
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Old 01-26-2018, 10:10 AM
Status: "delete" (set 21 days ago)
 
3,189 posts, read 1,274,360 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jtab4994 View Post
So do we buy gold now?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102

Lol.

Sure.

"On March 6, taking advantage of a wartime statute that had not been repealed, he (FDR) issued Presidential Proclamation 2039 that forbade the hoarding 'of gold or silver coin or bullion or currency', under penalty of $10,000 and/or up to five to ten years imprisonment."

On top of this, that market is paper contract manipulation bull****.

Long term traders that I know with a lot of experience are saying to buy gold now based on technicals as well as fundamentals, but I don't know.

Even the "Oil God," got shut down by attempting to trade on fundamentals.

As dumb as it sounds, even with diminished utility, I suspect that people will buy silver because it's "cheaper."

The ratio of silver to gold is around 70/1. I believe its historical ratio is 20/1, but like I said, the utility has diminished.
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Old 01-26-2018, 10:15 AM
 
Location: Philadelphia/South Jersey area
2,280 posts, read 1,036,462 times
Reputation: 7554
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jobster View Post
I don't think Americans have any idea what's around the corner.

Not only do Japanese and European central banks plan on liquiditating their US equity holdings in 2018, which by the way amounted to over $2T in FY17 as reported by Bank of America, but you have several other upcoming problems that will additional stress unlike you've ever had to deal with before.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...e-record-highs

Now, most people just throw money into index funds or individual stocks or whatever and don't really pay attention to order book, so they don't really understand what's going on. They don't see the algorithms and the spoofing and they don't understand what a "walk up" is.

That's because they've been protected by over $15T of liquidity injections by central banks.

This means NO PRICE DISCOVERY.

Right?

That's only one problem. I assume the FED will take the place of these banks, but that doesn't really resolve any problems, does it?

I also doubt it will work, as there will likely be a capital outflow out of the US.

Furthermore, China is working hard to take the place of the Petro-Dollar by using gold backed futures and will begin large scale purchases of crude in March.

Also, your tight oil industry is in SHAMBLES.

https://www.economist.com/news/busin...spree-americas

"Shale’s second coming is testament to Texan grit. But the industry’s never-say-die spirit may explain why it has done next to nothing about its dire finances. The business has burned up cash for 34 of the last 40 quarters, according to figures on the top 60 listed E&P firms collected by Bloomberg, a data provider. With the exception of airlines, Chinese state enterprises and Silicon Valley unicorns—private firms valued at more than $1bn—shale firms are on an unparalleled money-losing streak. About $11bn was torched in the latest quarter, as capital expenditures exceeded cashflows. The cash-burn rate may well rise again this year."

[b]ut the fact that the industry makes huge accounting losses has not changed. It has burned up cash whether the oil price was at $100, as in 2014, or at about $50, as it was during the past three months. The biggest 60 firms in aggregate have used up $9bn per quarter on average for the past five years. As a result the industry has barely improved its finances despite raising $70bn of equity since 2014. Much of the new money got swallowed up by losses, so total debt remains high, at just over $200bn."

I've done the math previously. I've showed the math.

You are due for an oil shock. It will be devastating to your economy. Real estate prices will crash. The stock market will crash. There will be no relief because the dollar will not be desirable.

The only good that will do is that it will temporarily allow you to sell exports for cheaper.

I'm not sure what else I need to say. Do the math.

This is not a six sigma event. Not for me.
lol, so what's around the corner?? seriously? I'm trying to figure out exactly what your 'math" is supposedly saying.

you do realize you've been posting this downfall since 2015.
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Old 01-26-2018, 10:26 AM
Status: "delete" (set 21 days ago)
 
3,189 posts, read 1,274,360 times
Reputation: 2351
Quote:
Originally Posted by eliza61nyc View Post
lol, so what's around the corner?? seriously? I'm trying to figure out exactly what your 'math" is supposedly saying.

you do realize you've been posting this downfall since 2015.
How long have central banks been injecting liquidity into equity markets?

I don't think people understand the implications of this. We are not talking about millions of dollars. We are not talking about billions of dollars. We are talking about trillions of dollars!

That means the market is artificial. There is no true price discovery.

How can there be price discovery if Central banks are purchasing trillions of dollars worth of equity?

Basically Japan and Europe imported inflation to the US markets. They are set to withdraw from equity markets in 2018, so where is this money going to come from?

Don't you think it will result in capital outflows? And the money isn't going to go into US bonds. Not with Chinese 10 years paying 4%.

I don't think so.

So that will force the Fed to raise rates faster than it wants to right? Well, what happens then? Your commercial real estate industry and retail are hanging on by a thread. Your real estate markets are higher than ever. Almost every single asset is inflated and almost every single asset, including crypto is correlated.

When I referred to math, I used YOUR GOVERNMENT'S numbers to quantify how much oil we have left in the US if we were completely restricted to using US oil at present consumption rates, which are RISING, despite the "so-called" green revolution.

And then your tight oil providers, do you think they can handle interest rate hikes when they are unprofitable at even $100 a barrel?

Look at the decline rates in your Permean basin and Bakken fields.

Additionally, as I already mentioned, there is an attack on the USD. Look at what's happening to the USD today.

Do you think I enjoy wasting my time talking about all this?

So, yes, I have been talking about this for a while. Maybe you have the answers.

Where is the money going to come from???

Again, this is NOT a black swan. This is NOT a six sigma event.

We SEE this coming.
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Old 01-26-2018, 10:40 AM
 
2,240 posts, read 1,386,969 times
Reputation: 4894
“A nation can only be one or the other, democracy or an imperialist, but it cannot be both. If it chooses imperialism, like the old republic, which so much of our current system is build on, it will lose its democracy.

We’re walking on thin ice. We’ve taken the same path taken by the first democratic regime ever created in the western world, namely the Roman republic. The Roman republic inadvertently acquired an empire around the world then discovered to maintain, expand, and protect this empire, they required standing armies. Standing armies is what George Washington warned us against in his fairwell address. That they will DESTROY the structure of government that we tried to create with our constitution.

In my lifetime, I have seen the collapse of the Nazi, imperial Japanese, British, French, Dutch, and Russian empires. They go down pretty easy. What I want Americans to understand today is that the price of liberty is eternal vigilance and we have not been vigilant since Dwight Eisenhower gave his speech about the dangers of unauthorized power in the form of the military industrial complex.

Once a nation is started down that path, the dynamics that effect all empires come into play. isolation, overstretch, the uniting of forces opposed to imperialism, and bankruptcy.


Chalmers Johnson.
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Old 01-26-2018, 10:40 AM
Status: "delete" (set 21 days ago)
 
3,189 posts, read 1,274,360 times
Reputation: 2351
Does anyone really pay attention?

Lol.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...n-time-in-2018

Even if they continue, it doesn't matter.

We will bleed out a slow death then as China takes over the petro-dollar status.

Why?

Because all the oil is in Central Asia and Eastern Russia and all the future growth is in developing nations.

What is the US and its European counterparts going to do?

Cry???

Go to war?

Already tried. Syria was a failure. You will have to take Iran. That will be a failure too.

There is nothing. You have 10 years at best. Enjoy it.
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Old 01-26-2018, 10:47 AM
Status: "delete" (set 21 days ago)
 
3,189 posts, read 1,274,360 times
Reputation: 2351
What will likely happen is that populism will be blamed and idiot, complacent, stupid moron, Americans will buy off on the propaganda as our politicians give our country away to the bankers.

That's right. This next collapse will bring up calls for consolidation. There will be calls by your capitalist brethren to create one global bank to handle all the world's finances.

The problem is that Russia and China will never capitulate. Either way, the future for Americans is bleak. Expect a police/debtor state.

Look at the responses to this thread. The people who assume they are rich would rather die than commit to any form of altruism.

There will be no universal basic income. How can people not see this?

And then what? War? Maybe.

Use critical thinking. Think strategically. What would YOU do?
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Old 01-26-2018, 10:53 AM
 
Location: Philadelphia/South Jersey area
2,280 posts, read 1,036,462 times
Reputation: 7554
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jobster View Post
What will likely happen is that populism will be blamed and idiot, complacent, stupid moron, Americans will buy off on the propaganda as our politicians give our country away to the bankers.

That's right. This next collapse will bring up calls for consolidation. There will be calls by your capitalist brethren to create one global bank to handle all the world's finances.

The problem is that Russia and China will never capitulate. Either way, the future for Americans is bleak. Expect a police/debtor state.

Look at the responses to this thread. The people who assume they are rich would rather die than commit to any form of altruism.

There will be no universal basic income. How can people not see this?

And then what? War? Maybe.

Use critical thinking. Think strategically. What would YOU do?
hummm maybe because people have been predicting the "future" of Americans is bleak for oh about 200 years of our existence.

you yourself have been at it for 3 years and batting zero. Just me but I totally admit to not being an financial genius you seem to be.
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