Quote:
Originally Posted by eliza61nyc
Maybe, I don't know. I'm a pretty happy content gal so I can't say it's a bad thing.
So let me ask, what is your end game? do you not get paid in money? are you stockpiling weapons for that day when the US dollar and oil is worthless?
if I'm understanding correctly 2018 Japan and Europe will withdrew from the equities market (does that mean no more international stocks??after this year). and in 10 years there will be no oil except in Russia and no basic income.
So excuse me for a stupid question, is everyone who is employed now not going to get paid in 2028?
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I am non-violent. God cursed me with amazing hands and feet, but unfortunately, a big heart.
I don't own any weapons.
I never said oil will be worthless. An oil shock implies that the price moves drastically in one direction or the other. In this case, the price of crude will be very expensive.
No, it has nothing to do with international stocks.
Look, this is how it works. So you have machines trading against one another and often walking prices up, spoofing, etc, using all sorts of tactics to draw in "dumb money."
It works great in the cyrpto market because there isn't a protection team, so you can see what happens when markets climb up on no volume. But its own nature, it increases volatility.
Why?
Well because low volume walk ups imply that there is limited liquidity at those prices. Right? Meaning that there is no money that is willing to buy at those prices. It also means that the price is subject to rapid drops which can also lead to violent sell offs.
Okay?
So in the broader market this doesn't happen. Why? Because Japan or Switzerland comes in and buys up TRILLIONS of dollars of stocks when there is no additional capital available.
What does this due to the market? Well, it artificially lowers volatility and it keeps prices high.
So what happens when you PULL this money out of the market. Volatility increases substantially and since there is no more demand, the market prices plunge. What commences next is a sell off because there was no true price discovery and there is no excess liquidity to keep the market at those prices.
Does that make sense?
So what will have to happen is these banks will need to continue to engage in QE, perhaps even the FED, or there will be a dramatic market sell off.
As far as your other questions are concerned, clearly you don't know much about automation. While I have no idea how accurate this prediction is, the mean date for technological singularity is 2040. Before singularity occurs, there will be a dramatic re-adjustment in our labor force, as technology will continue to replace human labor capital.
This will eventually leave hundreds of millions and even billions of unemployable people because machines will be more productive and more efficient.
Judging by your comments and others that share your mentality, there will be no universal basic income. Americans are not altruistic. We are individuals. We only care about ourselves.
So what will happen to all those unemployable people?
And yes, Russia and Central Asia have the majority of the world's light sweet crude oil.
Do you not understand what is going on Syria?
Jesus.
Do you not know what the petro-dollar is?
Okay...I don't have time for this.
Brief summary:
Qatar and Iran share the largest gas field in the world in their waters. Qatar planned on building a gas pipeline through Saudi, through Syria, and eventually into Turkey where the crude would be offloaded and sold in USD.
The Qatari's approached Assad with their proposal who rejected it.
Instead, Assad opted for the Iranian deal in which the Iranian's would run a pipeline through Kurdistan and then through Syria, where it would be offloaded into the Mediterranean and sold in non-USD currency.
Well, the US didn't like this, so Assad and his family had to die.
Unfortunately, the Russians have a forward operating base in that location that gives them access to the Mediterranean and also gives them a point of operation in the middle east.
In 2014, Kerry met with the Saudi's to negotiate a production deal. The goal was to produce so much oil that the Russian economy would bleed out.
You guys don't like math, so I did it for you.
You see, the ruble is highly correlated with the broad price of crude. In contrast the USD is highly INVERSELY correlated with the broad price of crude?
Do you understand why?
Well because the VAST majority of international purchases of crude AND other commodities is in USD. Why is this important?
Well, several reasons. One reason is the demand for USD allows the US to fund its programs and spend beyond it's means. It's why nobody cares about the debt ceiling. It doesn't matter as long as the USD is the de-facto petrodollar and reserve currency.
Another reason, which is very important to this discussion, is that again, OIL IS SOLD IN USD. So what does this mean for Russian oil producers?
Well it means they pay their operations in the depreciated ruble, but they sell their oil in the appreciated USD. This is one of the reasons why the Russians are producing so much oil.
They can do math. They understand that the shale revolution is a lie and a ticking time bomb.
But anyway, the US was unsuccessful in removing Russia from Syria. It was important for the US to remove the Russians not only because of the gas deal, but also because it gives the US complete hegemony in the region, which allows them to pursue interests in Iran.
Why is the US interested in Iran?
Well because it allows the US to have access to the 5 central Asian States which, in addition to eastern Russia, have the most light sweet crude in the world.
The US will fail.
There is another option, I suppose. The US will likely try to influence the Balochistan region of Pakistan, but the Chinese are keen on this and are building up a military presence.
Why Is China Building a Military Base in Pakistan, America
I didn't read that article, but just showing what's going on in the world.
Anyway, ultimately, the US will fail.
I wonder if anyone pays attention to anything. How do you guys invest in the market and not know how the market works?
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