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Old 02-05-2018, 05:59 PM
 
16,317 posts, read 6,088,087 times
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1,175 DJ loss over 2.9% annual wage growth, 4.1% annualized rate last 3 months, 200k new jobs..really?

On a 75k salary, 2.9% is $42 per week. 4.1% is $59 per week.

For the McJob holder at $10 an hour, 2.9% is a 29 cent an hour raise, 4.1% is 41 cents.

That was the startling fact today. The Wal Mart or Amazon affect of being conditioned to expect flat costs and reacting to 2.9% as if it was the Carteresque double digit inflation rate.
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Old 02-05-2018, 06:01 PM
 
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What raise? like to know where they get these fake facts from? My cousin who just turn 16 works at a mCJOB and only makes min and she been their for over a year now. Workers permit allow her to work at 15 doing dishes. Now she is 16 can work register and taking order but not allow to cook. Thank god, because she cant boil water.
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Old 02-05-2018, 06:08 PM
 
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Point being with our average US rate of 2.9%, Wall St went postal.
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Old 02-05-2018, 06:52 PM
 
2,360 posts, read 1,027,668 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
Point being with our average US rate of 2.9%, Wall St went postal.
So people get this raise and the stocks wants to crash over it? wow talking about having your cake and eating ice cream. Its a wet dream for the consumer if thats the case, because things will and hopefully become cheaper.. then they will stop giving increases and market will rise again.. start the cycle over.
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Old 02-06-2018, 06:26 AM
 
4,718 posts, read 2,255,657 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hitpausebutton2 View Post
What raise? like to know where they get these fake facts from? My cousin who just turn 16 works at a mCJOB and only makes min and she been their for over a year now. Workers permit allow her to work at 15 doing dishes. Now she is 16 can work register and taking order but not allow to cook. Thank god, because she cant boil water.
Yep, the wage conditions of your teenage cousin over the last year is surely a more appropriate macroeconomic barometer that all those fake facts compiled by the statisticians at BLS and CB.
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Old 02-06-2018, 10:03 AM
 
2,360 posts, read 1,027,668 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
Yep, the wage conditions of your teenage cousin over the last year is surely a more appropriate macroeconomic barometer that all those fake facts compiled by the statisticians at BLS and CB.
Any job in the fast food market, retail should be used for real stats. Because i am not sure were they are basing these stats from? Major cities with blue collar jobs? because you know some poor soil in middle of a corn field gas station didn't get a raise.
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Old 02-06-2018, 04:54 PM
 
2,138 posts, read 1,150,540 times
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Folks, you need to understand numbers, averages and how they apply to different things.

Let me give you an example.

If I tell you that you can have a job at a company where the average salary is 100k a year, all things equal that the job itself would be desirable, 36 hours a week and not unsafe, most people would say "Hell yeah!"

Now If I tell you the company employs 10 people, does that change anything? Probably not.

How about if I tell you that 1 person out of the 10 makes 1m a year? Well if you understand math and average this right here should be a huge warning sign.

Numbers can be very misleading.

Now lets look really quick at wage growth.

https://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_204.htm

Most of it is in a very narrow set of sectors. Healthcare is by far the biggest factor and probably one of the biggest bubbles this country has ever seen. Good jobs, high paying jobs, and hardly representative of the entire economy. Government is another.

Most of the increases are well below inflation. There are many sectors that are negative. Add up the population of anything below 2.3% growth and compare to above. Huge difference. Consider this, inflation measurements are artificially kept low because they do not include the biggest ticket items.

Let me ask you something. Profits are at super all time highs. Productivity is at all time highs. There has never been a time where companies made more with less. Yet wages have mostly been stagnant since the 70's when you factor in inflation and for most of America they are even lower because most inflation measures don't include things like housing.

This has been going on a long time. This isn't a Trump problem or an Obama problem. This is a fundamental problem resulting from easy substitution of workers due to most of the economy providing low quality, unskilled jobs.

So unless you have some letters after your name, in a very few select fields (some of which enjoying massive bubble like pricing on services and abnormal increase in demand due to population dynamics) you are doing worse off than your parent and grand parent. Making due on less and paying far more of what you do make for essentials.

That is why a significant percentage of the country, most actually, laugh at the idea of these wage growth numbers. People at the top experience significant growth while people at the the bottom get virtually nothing or even negative. The way percents work the growth at the top is a far bigger number because wealth is incredibly top heavy and once you get out of the upper middle class there is no such thing as trickle down.

So like many things, you have to look a little deeper than face value of the numbers. Inflation has not been low. The **** metric core inflation has been low, but that in no way reflects actual costs incurred by actual people. Essentially, we are bull****ting ourselves by cherry picking what we want to include.

Last edited by aridon; 02-06-2018 at 05:14 PM..
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Old 02-06-2018, 05:49 PM
 
Location: California
601 posts, read 438,356 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hitpausebutton2 View Post
So people get this raise and the stocks wants to crash over it? wow talking about having your cake and eating ice cream. Its a wet dream for the consumer if thats the case, because things will and hopefully become cheaper.. then they will stop giving increases and market will rise again.. start the cycle over.
I've seen disappointing losses on wall street after jobs reports showing lackluster wage growth.

At this point I just assume its a combination of computer trading and gross overvaluation that caused the stop market to go into freefall yesterday.

I did hear my SO's brother was laid off from his job in finance though, so that sucks.
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Old 02-06-2018, 07:19 PM
 
4,718 posts, read 2,255,657 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hitpausebutton2 View Post
Any job in the fast food market, retail should be used for real stats.
It was used.

Quote:

Because i am not sure were they are basing these stats from? Major cities with blue collar jobs? because you know some poor soil in middle of a corn field gas station didn't get a raise.
Methodology is available on BLS website.
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Old 02-06-2018, 10:04 PM
 
Location: Ruidoso, NM
5,170 posts, read 4,731,643 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aridon View Post
Most of the increases are well below inflation.
Precisely.

We haven't gotten addicted to low inflation. Rather we've gotten accustomed to ~zero *real* wage growth. 40 years and counting. It wasn't always like this.
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