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Old 02-08-2018, 05:27 PM
 
Location: Texas
2,693 posts, read 1,311,120 times
Reputation: 2466

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https://www.nationofchange.org/2018/...-rinse-repeat/

Goes into the details of the current debt bubble. Seems like the larger the bubble gets, the bigger the economic downfall is.

Amazing, how large the debt bubble is and how many sectors it involves.

For example, the price to sales ratio is currently 2.1 but the average over time has been 1.4

S&P 500 Price to Sales Ratio

Market cap is 137% of GDP

Fair Value is from 75 to 90% GDP

https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php

Public debt has gone from 9.2 trillion to 20.4 trillion since 2008

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/de...dDay=&endYear=
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Old 02-09-2018, 06:30 PM
 
4,739 posts, read 2,266,022 times
Reputation: 8811
That author seems to have a long history of calling bubbles about to pop, with very poor results from his analysis.

From 2013:

Quote:
If I must, I will go out on a limb and say 2015 or 2016, and that the bubbles in the U.S., U.K. and Canada will burst at the same time. And, of course, everybody in the mainstream media will be shocked that there was a bubble, and they will assure you that nobody could have seen the crash coming.
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Old 02-11-2018, 01:04 PM
 
Location: Staten Island, NY
2,978 posts, read 782,444 times
Reputation: 2168
Quote:
Originally Posted by lovecrowds View Post
https://www.nationofchange.org/2018/...-rinse-repeat/

Goes into the details of the current debt bubble. Seems like the larger the bubble gets, the bigger the economic downfall is.

Amazing, how large the debt bubble is and how many sectors it involves.

For example, the price to sales ratio is currently 2.1 but the average over time has been 1.4

S&P 500 Price to Sales Ratio

Market cap is 137% of GDP

Fair Value is from 75 to 90% GDP

https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php

Public debt has gone from 9.2 trillion to 20.4 trillion since 2008

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/de...dDay=&endYear=
To think we had a surplus when Clinton left office. 3 wars will erode at a surplus and cause debt in the best of circumstances. More disturbing is that despite Obama raising taxes, Blue states raising taxes as well the National debt doubled in 8 years and not much to show for it. Shivel ready jobs " weren't as shovel-ready as we thought, LOL." We never got the big new, new deal infrastructure plan that Obama promised. Roads are crumbling, bridges are falling down. Logistically we are in dire straights. Yes, more people have health insurance but, the people who had it before are paying much more. In my case, my policy went from $4500 a year that my employer covered to $21,000 a year at my last renewal in January for 2 people and I pay over $6000 a year now when I used to pay $0. The tax and spend mentality doesn't reduce debt and you can not tax your way to prosperity.
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Old 02-11-2018, 03:39 PM
 
3,792 posts, read 1,771,147 times
Reputation: 765
The difference between an asset bubble and inflation is this. Assets go up but wages don't that is a bubble. Assets go up and wages do to it is inflation. Sales will come up as prices go up.


So let us turn the asset bubble into inflation with the only lever we have. Up the minimum wage to $30hr. Inflation is easier to deal with than bubble pop.
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Old 02-11-2018, 03:45 PM
 
3,792 posts, read 1,771,147 times
Reputation: 765
Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
That author seems to have a long history of calling bubbles about to pop, with very poor results from his analysis.

From 2013:
Ya but...


The FED just said over valued assets. That is bubble. And what you get with low rates forever.


My bet is on DOW 40k before DOW 20k.


But it is the trigger you don't see coming that gets you. Not the one you do see coming.
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Old 02-12-2018, 05:33 PM
 
4,739 posts, read 2,266,022 times
Reputation: 8811
Quote:
Originally Posted by ContrarianEcon View Post
The FED just said over valued assets. That is bubble.
Assets being overvalued doesn't by itself define a bubble.
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Old 02-12-2018, 10:40 PM
 
10 posts, read 3,743 times
Reputation: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by ContrarianEcon View Post
So let us turn the asset bubble into inflation with the only lever we have. Up the minimum wage to $30hr. Inflation is easier to deal with than bubble pop.
USD will worth nothing and the assets are devaluating.
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Old 02-13-2018, 05:19 AM
 
4,739 posts, read 2,266,022 times
Reputation: 8811
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulCCC View Post
USD will worth nothing and the assets are devaluating.
I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that you've been saying this for at least a decade and still have some Ron Paul Revolution t-shirts balled up that you use as rags in the garage.
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Old 02-13-2018, 07:22 AM
Status: "delete" (set 24 days ago)
 
3,189 posts, read 1,277,547 times
Reputation: 2351
lieqiang will learn the hard way how this works. He drank the kool-aid.
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Old 02-13-2018, 12:31 PM
 
4,739 posts, read 2,266,022 times
Reputation: 8811
How exactly will I "learn the hard way" how this works? I've been through recessions as an investor before, understand the stock market is goes up and down, and realize that the stock market is currently overvalued.

What endless doom-and-gloom types like you can't figure out is that there is a lot of area between these apocalyptic scenarios you constantly rant about and economic cycles that a properly allocated investment portfolio is designed around. It is a trait fairly common among you doom-and-gloomers, where you believe everyone who doesn't agree that we'll soon have cannibalism in the streets must believe the polar opposite that stock market will never go down and the economy will never have a recessions. It's an incredibly narrow minded attitude to have, and you've got it in spades.

Either way you're the tool who was in this forum telling everyone to get out of equities and into treasuries back in 2015 right before a 34% run, so your cred as armchair economist is about zilch.
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