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Old 03-13-2018, 06:21 AM
 
4,745 posts, read 2,266,022 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
The only time I ever hit the absolute bottom of the market it was pure dumb luck. I have never in my life hit a market peak "perfectly." However, I certainly didn't sell equities in 2012
Well there you go, your "it's simple, it's math, it's basic" has quickly devolved to luck and not actually having sold after the market had a runup like your investment strategy called for.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
You don't have to "time the market."
You just said your strategy is to sell when you believe the market is high, and buy when you think it is low. Please go look up the definition of market timing and get back to us.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
I figure there's a better than 80% chance
You said your simple plan was based on arithmetic. A layman figuring there is whatever chance of something happening is not arithmetic, it's called guesswork.
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Old 03-13-2018, 02:04 PM
 
2,772 posts, read 1,502,855 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ServoMiff View Post
I feel like the economy is more fragile than we believe it to be, with credit card charge-offs and delinquencies, along with total personal debt either above or nearing record high levels. Yes, some of this is due to the nature of a low-rate environment, but the funky thing I believe is that credit is what has been fueling the economy, when the majority of people have seen a rise in prices since the last recession, but very little gain in income, unless you're in the upper echelon and had money to put away.

This is especially the case for renters, who have seen rents climb in many markets with housing shortages - I've heard many stories of people in places like Atlanta and even Pittsburgh where people are spending nearly 40-50% of their income on housing, which is a really unsustainable figure. Heck, it's still nearly 35-40% in a market like the Chicago suburbs, which has seen a significant population outflow. They laughed at me when I said that I was sitting around 15% and didn't really want to increase that significantly if I had to take a job in the Chicagoland area.

We've started to see the huge RE market boon start to wane here in Louisville, but uncertain if it's just a slow buildup to the summer, or if people are truly exiting the market because they're aware of the higher-than-they-should-be home prices and waiting it out, or if there's an economic factor in their personal situations. For me, the last 2 years saw about a 30% increase in home values in the Louisville market. That is claimed to be a correction that they never saw in the prior 20 years, but since it's echoed in other markets as well, I think it was something to do with the housing shortage in the area with life expectancy on the rise coupled with a new construction shortage in the desired price window, primarily attributed to the lack of available talent due to the opioid crisis which caused build costs to rise significantly, and a lack of cheap labor, possibly due to deportations from the Obama era through now.

A builder here told me that he can't profitably build a $250k home these days. He can do $350k+ though, but magically there aren't enough buyers once you get over the $400k mark in this area, so it's a bit of a catch-22.

I believe the next 2-3 years will be the bottom.
Much of this seems somewhat conservative and/or anecdotal, or perhaps situational.

Of course rents/percentage spent on housing will be more in a major metropolitan area like Chicago. Things cost more here(!)

Another technical correction you need to understand. There has only been a significant population outflow in *some* of Chicago’s suburbs, primarily focused on the southern suburbs.

Could you post any stats or peer reviewed articles to back up claims that either the opioid crisis or deportations impacted labor in a significant manner?
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Old 04-16-2018, 09:16 PM
 
Location: Olympus Mons, Mars
5,000 posts, read 8,040,047 times
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we are overdue for a recession but I think this time around we are going to be super screwed. Due to the already crazy debt we are not going to be able to do any QE so it's going to be really interesting. Is the Fed going to do QE anyway and create a debt and currency crisis?
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