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Old 02-10-2018, 02:29 PM
 
Location: Tampa, FL
365 posts, read 363,394 times
Reputation: 1113

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Quote:
Originally Posted by engineman View Post
Recession will follow the election of a Dimm president or a Dimm majority in congress.
We already have a dim (witted) president. So...
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Old 02-10-2018, 02:33 PM
 
9,082 posts, read 3,697,658 times
Reputation: 13383
Quote:
Originally Posted by TampaBull13 View Post
We already have a dim (witted) president. So...
if you think that, then what about all those "smart" ivy grads who aren't president?
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Old 02-10-2018, 02:43 PM
 
961 posts, read 921,475 times
Reputation: 1194
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDCB View Post
I know it is very hard to time the macro-economics, but what a confusing time!

Markets are currently getting pummeled after a crazy run up, tax cuts have passed, corporations are showing great profits, wage growth is on the up and up
Crypto profits are high - many new millionaires
But interest rates are expected to go up this year to fend off inflation

This has been on of the longest times of economic growth...

When is the Trump Recession going to hit? (bolded as not to make the convo political)

Will it be staved off by a infrastructure stimulus bill?

Do we see continued growth?

What are your predictions?
I don't see it happening in the next 12 months. It feels like we are peak-employment and so the only way to go is down from here. Corporations are showing great profits and will likely attempt to raise their margins by reducing their input costs; if that means downsizing their workforce, then a recession will likely follow if too many companies follow suit. I do not see continued growth because the projected policies promoted by the current administration seem to be more focused on free market theory and focused less on stability. An infrastructure bill would be nice, but I can't see how it will be paid for and the tax law that just went through kind of sucked up all the oxygen. I felt like the infrastructure bill should have happened first and a "lite version" of tax reform after would have been safer.

This market correction so far seems healthy, it looked like the market got way ahead of itself (partly because of all of Trump's stock market cheering and "investor" FOMO), but a multiples contraction would give me ease.
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Old 02-10-2018, 03:48 PM
 
Location: Tampa, FL
365 posts, read 363,394 times
Reputation: 1113
Quote:
Originally Posted by MLSFan View Post
if you think that, then what about all those "smart" ivy grads who aren't president?
What about them? Not all Ivy grads are smart.
I try not to generalize.

I was referring only to the current president, not anyone else.
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Old 02-10-2018, 06:44 PM
 
29,462 posts, read 33,699,747 times
Reputation: 11093
Quote:
Originally Posted by MLSFan View Post
sounds like a good thing... cheaper stocks and better economy? more people will buy into stock market and it will go back up

with all the auto enroll plans at work, money is being pumped into stock market, good times for everyone still working
Problem is with the just passed budget the debt is going up and the resulting need to borrow more. Higher interest rates make that borrowing cost higher and thus the debt higher. Eventually there will be a reckoning when the inevitable recession comes. Pay attention to what the recent correction does to consumer and business confidence it anything.
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Old 02-11-2018, 05:45 AM
 
Location: Boston
5,097 posts, read 1,453,831 times
Reputation: 3734
the economy is strong it just got overheated as predicted. We need no more than 2 interest rate rises this year to keep it humming along. It's newcomers to the market that get scared, and buy and sell, they're the ones that get burned. the fundamentals are good.
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Old 02-11-2018, 09:54 AM
 
723 posts, read 398,145 times
Reputation: 1079
We are still in Recession. We didn't avoid Recession and DEFLATION CYCLE - this natural cycle was interrupted by FED INTERVENTION, which successfully pushed it in to the future. The FED "tricked Nature" by stealing trillions from the future to spend today, to 'avoid reality". This will come back to bite us surely.

U.S. economy, real economy, has been dead since 2001. The Fed used debt, used our children and grandchildren money to trick the nature, to fool all of you and simulate economic growth. In reality the Fed just created asset bubbles, devaluated our currency and nothing has been fixed. We haven't avoided recession, deflation and depression........we just postponed it.

The FED has borrowed or stolen trillions of dollars from future taxpayers to SHIELD YOU ALL FROM REALITY. Now the FED is raising rates, the inverse of PROTECTION. Is that what is causing the meltdown?
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Old 02-11-2018, 11:46 AM
 
Location: City of the Angels
2,223 posts, read 1,522,135 times
Reputation: 5363
Since the definition of a recession is:
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

Pay attention to the leading indicators as you will know when it hits as it takes a half of a year to formulate.

Quote:
Recession Indicators
Aside from two consecutive quarters of GDP decline, economists assess several metrics to determine whether a recession is imminent or already taking place. These indicators are divided into two categories: leading indicators and lagging indicators. Leading indicators materialize before a recession is officially declared. Perhaps the most common leading indicator is contraction in the stock market. Declines in broad stock indices, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 index, often appear several months before a recession takes shape. This was the case in 2007, when the market began declining in August, four months ahead of the official recession in December 2007.
Lagging indicators of a recession include the unemployment rate. Though the Great Recession began in December 2007, the unemployment rate still indicated full employment -- a rate of 5% or lower -- four months later. The unemployment rate began declining in May 2008 and did not recover until several months after the recession ended in June 2009.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recession.asp
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Old 02-11-2018, 11:47 AM
 
Location: USA
13,295 posts, read 7,290,471 times
Reputation: 9645
We just got out of a nine year, effective Recession with a so called jobless "recovery". You want another one?
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Old 02-12-2018, 12:06 AM
 
Location: Future Expat of California
588 posts, read 259,883 times
Reputation: 515
With the current administration, it will happen sooner than later.
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