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Old 02-12-2018, 03:06 PM
 
3,454 posts, read 1,694,791 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler View Post
NaCl to you.

As far the recession, I don't see one in the near future unless there's an unforeseen jolt to the economy. The tax cuts and infrastructure stimulus will have the opposite effect of causing recession. What it will cause in overheating of the economy and higher deficits. Eventually this will lead to a recession as part of the natural business cycle.
I disagree. We are at full employment. Big deficit spending (the tax cut and the newly-passed budget) is likely to put upward pressure on inflation (wage & non-wage), and the Fed is likely to respond with interest rate bumps. Higher interest rates will hit the credit markets, which have been fragile since the 2007 crash. Inflation will hit corporate profits, and companies will respond with price increases or cost cutting. Especially with uncertainty (and negativity) about global trade, I think we are at risk for the start of a recession this year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kwong7 View Post
I don't see it happening in the next 12 months. It feels like we are peak-employment and so the only way to go is down from here. Corporations are showing great profits and will likely attempt to raise their margins by reducing their input costs; if that means downsizing their workforce, then a recession will likely follow if too many companies follow suit. I do not see continued growth because the projected policies promoted by the current administration seem to be more focused on free market theory and focused less on stability. An infrastructure bill would be nice, but I can't see how it will be paid for and the tax law that just went through kind of sucked up all the oxygen. I felt like the infrastructure bill should have happened first and a "lite version" of tax reform after would have been safer.

This market correction so far seems healthy, it looked like the market got way ahead of itself (partly because of all of Trump's stock market cheering and "investor" FOMO), but a multiples contraction would give me ease.
I think an infrastructure bill is unlikely. I think Congress will struggle to get a budget in place for the next fiscal year, and we will spend the remainder of this year with a series of debt ceiling and budget-related deadlines sucking up all of the air in Congress.

Quote:
Originally Posted by skeddy View Post
the economy is strong it just got overheated as predicted. We need no more than 2 interest rate rises this year to keep it humming along. It's newcomers to the market that get scared, and buy and sell, they're the ones that get burned. the fundamentals are good.
You mean the stock market got overheated? The economy has gotten used to 0% & near 0% interest rates. We've never seen rates held this low for this long. There will be responses as the fed rate rises. Things could get weird.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pilot1 View Post
We just got out of a nine year, effective Recession with a so called jobless "recovery". You want another one?
While you are wrong, the recovery from the Recession has been slow and gradual. I fear that the recovery has not been robust enough and that the Yellen-less Fed (and the Trump-run White House) will not be ready to deal with the rough waters.
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Old 02-13-2018, 10:27 AM
 
Location: North Idaho
20,998 posts, read 25,737,156 times
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If I knew with no doubt when the next recession was going to hit, I sure wouldn't tell anyone. I'd be arranging my finances to take advantage. If I knew the numbers for the next lottery, I sure wouldn't be broadcasting that on an open forum, either.

Other than looking at history, it is probably a safe guess that the market that goes up at one point will go down at another point. So, probably there will be another recession at some point.

That's my answer to "when is the next recession?". My answer is "probably sometime".
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Old 02-13-2018, 12:23 PM
 
2,135 posts, read 1,149,266 times
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Fed is unwinding tons of debt

Current administration is spending like drunken sailors, which is a massive issue most folks are ignorant about.

General bias towards rising rates.

The combination is not conducive for the status quo and in fact act as an accelerant for interest rates to rise even if inflation remains tame which is unlikely.

Odds of a soft landing are very very low.

The combination of these items and the current fairly high valuations in real estate and the market in general make me believe we are approaching a lost decade.

I'd bet we'll start hearing about credit downgrade as well soon enough with all the extra debt spending being pushed.

What is happening right now is completely crazy. We are setting ourselves up for some serious self inflicted pain.

Last edited by aridon; 02-13-2018 at 12:33 PM..
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Old 02-17-2018, 04:21 PM
 
Location: Boston
5,097 posts, read 1,453,831 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MDCB View Post
I know it is very hard to time the macro-economics, but what a confusing time!

Markets are currently getting pummeled after a crazy run up, tax cuts have passed, corporations are showing great profits, wage growth is on the up and up
Crypto profits are high - many new millionaires
But interest rates are expected to go up this year to fend off inflation

This has been on of the longest times of economic growth...

When is the Trump Recession going to hit? (bolded as not to make the convo political)

Will it be staved off by a infrastructure stimulus bill?

Do we see continued growth?

What are your predictions?
June 12th, 2022
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Old 02-17-2018, 06:19 PM
 
Location: Ohio
17,986 posts, read 13,233,625 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MDCB View Post
This has been on of the longest times of economic growth...

When is the Trump Recession going to hit? (bolded as not to make the convo political)
The longest economic expansions in the US were 120 months from 1991 to 2001, and 106 months from 1961 to 1969.

The current expansion is at 103 months.

In May, the current expansion will tie the 2nd record at 106 months. It will tie the longest expansion of 120 months in September 2019.

Many economists, and most of the MSM, believe expansion will last another 2 years, and that's certainly believable, since the JFK tax cuts spurred the 1960's expansion and the Reagan tax cuts led to the 1990s expansion.

Statistically -- if you play the odds -- it's likely a recession will occur within the next 36 months.

Quote:
Originally Posted by C2BP View Post
We are still in Recession. We didn't avoid Recession and DEFLATION CYCLE -
Since deflation is not a natural consequence of recessions, there is no "recession-deflation cycle."

Quote:
Originally Posted by C2BP View Post
this natural cycle was interrupted by FED INTERVENTION, which successfully pushed it in to the future.
Um, the mission of the Federal Reserve is price stability, so intervention by the Federal Reserve is both expected and welcome.
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Old 02-18-2018, 03:28 AM
 
64,527 posts, read 66,075,955 times
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Mircea ,you will find there is no arguing with our fed bashers .they have the attitude they can predict all the outcomes and everyone else is wrong .

I don't waste my time anymore replying . They do their Monday Morning quarter backing and see nothing but their own outcomes happening ,even when what they spew is false.
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Old 02-18-2018, 05:23 AM
 
Location: the Old Dominion
212 posts, read 102,335 times
Reputation: 917
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
Mircea ,you will find there is no arguing with our fed bashers .they have the attitude they can predict all the outcomes and everyone else is wrong .

I don't waste my time anymore replying . They do their Monday Morning quarter backing and see nothing but their own outcomes happening ,even when what they spew is false.
I have a friend who is like that.
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Old 02-18-2018, 12:33 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
5,242 posts, read 3,393,710 times
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I agree with Mircea that, according to past performance and probability, a recession should occur in the next 2-3.5 years.

My guess is it will be spurred by something outside the U.S. this time, probably China.
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Old 02-18-2018, 12:35 PM
 
Location: Vallejo
13,437 posts, read 15,036,253 times
Reputation: 11924
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pilot1 View Post
We just got out of a nine year, effective Recession with a so called jobless "recovery". You want another one?
We're years out, which is pretty long for just out. I wouldn't be surprised to see another recession just because business cycle is cyclical. Eventually we'll have another one. Eight years out that wouldn't be abnormal and certainly wouldn't qualify for a double dip recession. One thing that might make it less likely is employment was slow to recovery, only been around a normal unemployment rate for 2-3 years. With higher unemployment, economy was less likely to overheat.
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Old 02-18-2018, 01:00 PM
 
Location: Paranoid State
12,671 posts, read 9,420,097 times
Reputation: 14919
Q: When is the recession going to hit?


A: "If I knew when the next recession would hit, I'd be a wealthy man." -- Bill Gates
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