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Old 02-26-2018, 09:04 AM
 
2,768 posts, read 1,494,078 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
the recession wild card is that while gdp is projected to be 2.50% which is pretty far from a recession . it you subtract the fall in savings rate and the existing credit card debt it really knocks that number down to about 1.25% .

that can be pretty close to recession territory if increased rates slow us to much .
Isn't that really only looking at certain metrics though?
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Old 02-26-2018, 09:07 AM
 
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it sure is , and it could be the correct one to boot . time will tell
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Old 02-26-2018, 09:28 PM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
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It's possible the next recession will not start in the US. China's takeover of Anbang on Friday sent shockwaves through the investment community around the world. By the time Anbang sheds $300 billion in assets, the expectation is that net Chinese foreign investment will drop to zero. Other high flying Chinese investors will be severely curtailed. That will probably not be enough to trigger a recession, but it shoves us closer to the line, since many investors are highly leveraged and asset prices will drop.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/26/b...-takeover.html
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Old 02-28-2018, 09:33 AM
 
850 posts, read 260,992 times
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If rates go up, which makes stocks tank; shouldn't Bonds be going UP?
Assuming people sell stocks for bonds i suppose..
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Old 02-28-2018, 07:49 PM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
11,042 posts, read 11,450,778 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jman0war View Post
If rates go up, which makes stocks tank; shouldn't Bonds be going UP?
Assuming people sell stocks for bonds i suppose..
Just the opposite. If you are holding 2% bonds and the rate goes up to 3%, you have to discount your bonds to unload them. If you are buying a bond fund, the return will trail rising interest rate. Typical average turnover is around 6 years for an investment grade bond fund. Right now they are probably buying shorter term instruments anticipating interest rate rises, which shortens the amount of time they have to hold to maturity. A diversified fund may sell poor performing stocks to buy higher yielding bonds. Money will always go for the promised best return, though sometimes the managers guess wrong.
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Old 03-01-2018, 02:02 AM
 
721 posts, read 398,145 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aridon View Post
Fed is unwinding tons of debt

Current administration is spending like drunken sailors, which is a massive issue most folks are ignorant about.

What is happening right now is completely crazy. We are setting ourselves up for some serious self inflicted pain.
Nothing comes for free Aridon. That's why politicians hate economics. There's no way to cheat economics long term. Sadly they engage in short term manipulation which is usually simulation at the cost of the long term. Thus we have QE, zirp, and massive government spending with massive deficits. QE is in effect a tax on those having money because it dilutes it by making liquidity without any goods or services to go along with it. It is a socialist tool much more than a tool of capitalism. Likewise, zirp is also a form of artificially manipulating interest rates to the extreme to deny those with capital higher returns on investment in hopes of encouraging more people to go in debt to stimulate the economy. Sadly, it inflates property more than the benefit people get from going in debt or getting a break on interest rates (no surprise) making it that much more impossible for the poor and middle class to buy a house. Zirp can be snuffed out by politicians, especially the President by picking a true fundamental capitalists to run the Federal Reserve.

The next big downturn may be worse then the last one and is why the Federal Reserve is doing anything it can to keep this zombie cycle going which is making their position worse not better.
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Old 03-01-2018, 05:11 AM
 
4,123 posts, read 4,540,526 times
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I found this article to help give insight into our next recession.

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers suggests "in the next few years a recession will come."

That suggests that in the next few years a recession will come and we will in a sense have already shot the monetary and fiscal policy cannons, and that suggests the next recession might be more protracted,” he said during a panel with Bloomberg Television’s Erik Schatzker on Wednesday.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/marke...one/ar-BBJH7yM
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Old 03-01-2018, 10:20 AM
 
5,600 posts, read 4,204,310 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KayAnn246 View Post
......

That suggests that in the next few years a recession will come and we will in a sense have already shot the monetary and fiscal policy cannons, and that suggests the next recession might be more protracted, ......
In case you have not noticed, the Fed is well along in raising interest rates and taking other steps to reload the cannons.
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Old 03-01-2018, 11:59 AM
 
4,123 posts, read 4,540,526 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jrkliny View Post
In case you have not noticed, the Fed is well along in raising interest rates and taking other steps to reload the cannons.

Yes, in case you haven't noticed, in the past, they have implemented retraction and expansion based on the health and progress of the economy.
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Old 03-01-2018, 01:21 PM
 
2,136 posts, read 1,149,266 times
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Trade war about to heat up. Going to be a perfect orange storm.
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