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Old 02-09-2018, 11:05 AM
 
Location: Cleveland, OH
452 posts, read 705,299 times
Reputation: 204

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I know it is very hard to time the macro-economics, but what a confusing time!

Markets are currently getting pummeled after a crazy run up, tax cuts have passed, corporations are showing great profits, wage growth is on the up and up
Crypto profits are high - many new millionaires
But interest rates are expected to go up this year to fend off inflation

This has been on of the longest times of economic growth...

When is the Trump Recession going to hit? (bolded as not to make the convo political)

Will it be staved off by a infrastructure stimulus bill?

Do we see continued growth?

What are your predictions?
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Old 02-09-2018, 11:17 AM
 
Location: Philadelphia/South Jersey area
2,280 posts, read 1,036,462 times
Reputation: 7554
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDCB View Post
I know it is very hard to time the macro-economics, but what a confusing time!

Markets are currently getting pummeled after a crazy run up, tax cuts have passed, corporations are showing great profits, wage growth is on the up and up
Crypto profits are high - many new millionaires
But interest rates are expected to go up this year to fend off inflation

This has been on of the longest times of economic growth...

When is the Trump Recession going to hit? (bolded as not to make the convo political)

Will it be staved off by a infrastructure stimulus bill?

Do we see continued growth?

What are your predictions?
lol my prediction?? If I knew anything about what will happened I would be sharing that 500 million dollar jackpot with that youngster in Florida.

I do think we will continue to see economic growth but I think it will be very modest. I haven't paid attention to the going on in Congress so I can't comment on an infrastructure stimulus bill.

Do I think the US dollar will become worthless? Not at all.
Could we be entering into a bear market? maybe. Would I pull out of the market because of it? absolutely not.


I'm a chemist not an economist so treat my comments with a grain of salt.
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Old 02-09-2018, 11:57 AM
 
Location: Brawndo-Thirst-Mutilator-Nation
15,148 posts, read 15,204,207 times
Reputation: 10874
Maybe never.......financial "emergency measures" can be deployed.

Negative interest rates, another bond-buying mega-session and some other "fresh" ideas to keep things humming-along "normally"!
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Old 02-09-2018, 12:49 PM
 
64,577 posts, read 66,100,109 times
Reputation: 43003
the problem now is the economy is clocking in stronger than expected and now the markets fear the tax cuts will take more interest rate hikes to keep inflation in check .
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Old 02-09-2018, 07:54 PM
 
9,086 posts, read 3,701,709 times
Reputation: 13384
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
the problem now is the economy is clocking in stronger than expected and now the markets fear the tax cuts will take more interest rate hikes to keep inflation in check .
sounds like a good thing... cheaper stocks and better economy? more people will buy into stock market and it will go back up

with all the auto enroll plans at work, money is being pumped into stock market, good times for everyone still working
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Old 02-09-2018, 07:56 PM
 
2,187 posts, read 1,533,535 times
Reputation: 2052
Just live day by day, and prepare for the worst.
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Old 02-09-2018, 08:41 PM
 
Location: Washington State
15,358 posts, read 8,025,596 times
Reputation: 13165
Quote:
Originally Posted by eliza61nyc View Post
lol my prediction?? If I knew anything about what will happened I would be sharing that 500 million dollar jackpot with that youngster in Florida.

I do think we will continue to see economic growth but I think it will be very modest. I haven't paid attention to the going on in Congress so I can't comment on an infrastructure stimulus bill.

Do I think the US dollar will become worthless? Not at all.
Could we be entering into a bear market? maybe. Would I pull out of the market because of it? absolutely not.


I'm a chemist not an economist so treat my comments with a grain of salt.
NaCl to you.

As far the recession, I don't see one in the near future unless there's an unforeseen jolt to the economy. The tax cuts and infrastructure stimulus will have the opposite effect of causing recession. What it will cause in overheating of the economy and higher deficits. Eventually this will lead to a recession as part of the natural business cycle.
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Old 02-10-2018, 06:10 AM
 
11,896 posts, read 14,359,727 times
Reputation: 7526
Hopefully, after I retire. OK, seriously? This year should be good. Stock market goes into bear market late 2019, recession follows next year. Will make reelection, should Trump choose to run, much harder.
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Old 02-10-2018, 08:48 AM
 
Location: City of the Angels
2,223 posts, read 1,522,135 times
Reputation: 5363
The economic fundamentals are strong and will keep this business cycle going for a while.

The problem with these long bull markets is that the 1% have too much money to gamble with so they play with derivatives to juice up their returns because they're not happy with the regular market. These cause what are called Minsky moments which are like Black Swan events which I think will cause our next recession.
The regular investor will never see it coming as the covering of shorts will lead the computer programming to drive down the market. We've seen (2) 1,000 point drops in one week and I'm thinking that it's possible that that point drop may get higher and the frequency closer as the Plunge Protection Team can only absorb so much.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment

I saw an article on T.V. last night where the person stated that one of the dynamic forces to the future market is the reemergence of the "Bond Vigilantes" because of increasing government debt which will force interest rates of bonds up which make people abandon the stock market in search of stable returns.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_vigilante

Last edited by NickofDiamonds; 02-10-2018 at 09:09 AM..
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Old 02-10-2018, 02:05 PM
 
Location: Florida
4,379 posts, read 2,426,594 times
Reputation: 7736
Recession will follow the election of a Dimm president or a Dimm majority in congress.
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