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Old 02-21-2018, 12:00 PM
 
105,744 posts, read 107,736,740 times
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you really won't know the answer until you get to that point .

it is like trying to project after tax returns in to the equation too.


when you get there you will not only see what your balance is but how inflation effects you . the cpi matches no ones personal cost of living .

you may not even live where you do so i look at this projecting stuff as i do politics . wasted time .

Last edited by mathjak107; 02-21-2018 at 12:09 PM..
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Old 02-21-2018, 12:02 PM
 
10,336 posts, read 5,506,441 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rruff View Post
When you are projecting how much wealth someone can expect to accrue in 30 or 40 years, the purchasing power of that wealth (real value) is all anyone *should* care about.

Still waiting for that analysis...
Post #126, posted two days ago.

RIF
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Old 02-21-2018, 12:04 PM
 
10,336 posts, read 5,506,441 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rruff View Post
Good lord man, is your PhD in obfuscation?!

Do the damn analysis with your superior knowledge of TVM, and if you get a result that differs from mine, I'll be happy to show you what you did wrong.
Post #126.

I await your "grade" of my work.

This won't go the way you are expecting it to. . .
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Old 02-21-2018, 12:10 PM
 
Location: Ruidoso, NM
5,667 posts, read 6,548,753 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
you really won't the answer until you get to that point .
Well of course not! That's why it is a projection based on best guesses.

Quote:
i look at this projecting stuff as i do politics . wasted time .
You already stated that you only look at real returns. Here is your post #134.

" i only go by real returns in any projections , never just nominal . nominal can be far to mis-leading .

nominal returns make recoveries look very very short . we have had many time frames where even 10 years out real returns have not equaled out .

these are the only meaningful numbers in my book ."
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Old 02-21-2018, 12:11 PM
 
105,744 posts, read 107,736,740 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rruff View Post
When you are projecting how much wealth someone can expect to accrue in 30 or 40 years, the purchasing power of that wealth (real value) is all anyone *should* care about.

Still waiting for that analysis...
i wish them luck projecting that far out . i would have said 2x what i do . we had 17 years of almost 14% gains from 1987 to 2003 when i started . then we had near nothing from 2000-2015
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Old 02-21-2018, 12:12 PM
 
Location: Ruidoso, NM
5,667 posts, read 6,548,753 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TaxPhd View Post
Post #126.
More obfuscation. Well, exactly what I'd expect from someone with zero cogent argument.
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Old 02-21-2018, 12:15 PM
 
10,336 posts, read 5,506,441 times
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Originally Posted by rruff View Post
More obfuscation. Well, exactly what I'd expect from someone with zero cogent argument.
Obfuscation? What are you talking about? It is a very precise answer to the question. And it is 100% correct.

But please, tell us all how it is wrong.
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Old 02-21-2018, 12:25 PM
 
105,744 posts, read 107,736,740 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rruff View Post
Well of course not! That's why it is a projection based on best guesses.



You already stated that you only look at real returns. Here is your post #134.

" i only go by real returns in any projections , never just nominal . nominal can be far to mis-leading .

nominal returns make recoveries look very very short . we have had many time frames where even 10 years out real returns have not equaled out .

these are the only meaningful numbers in my book ."
yes i do go by real returns in my projections .

i am spending down . each year my balance reflects inflation the year before because all spending reflects inflation so it is a real return that is left and the following years budget is set off it.

real returns are what counts when looking at the known too . as i said we have had 10 year periods where we have not recovered in dollars so thinking a recovery will take 2-1/2 years in nominal returns may not mean much if it takes a decade to get back to where you were . .

but that has nothing to do with running numbers 30-40 years out trying to guess what you will have . i would not waste my time , certainly not nominal returns and certainly , certainly not trying to project real returns .

i think you have a vision of doing something in your head that in the end when you get there you will find really was not practical to even waste time trying to do
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Old 02-21-2018, 01:32 PM
 
Location: Paranoid State
13,044 posts, read 13,787,723 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathguy View Post
I'm planning on retiring in 7-8 years at most around age 55.
Working for a living is over-rated.

Last edited by SportyandMisty; 02-21-2018 at 01:40 PM..
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Old 02-21-2018, 01:33 PM
 
Location: Paranoid State
13,044 posts, read 13,787,723 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post
No one is above reproach, or entirely free of error.
You obviously haven't met my wife.
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