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Old 03-01-2018, 08:19 AM
 
Location: Paranoid State
12,672 posts, read 9,420,097 times
Reputation: 14922

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Now is the time to get entitlement spending under control.

I find these charts compelling, and fit within the category of "any trend that cannot go on forever, won't."

The first chart shows entitlement spending per year divided by the number of US Citizens. It is the entitlement cost per person. It now stands at $7500 per citizen.



The second chart shows entitlement spending as a percent of GDP. We're now up to 13%.



Our economy is doing well: unemployment numbers are way down, employment numbers are way up, GDP numbers are up, tax receipts are up, business optimism is up, consumer optimism is up... By most economic measures, things are going well.

Except that at the federal level, there appears to be no check on total expenditures.

We have known for decades that the fundamental US problem is promised entitlement spending far beyond what our current tax system can fund. Markets have presumed that the US would fix this problem sooner or later. It's not that hard as a matter of economics. In the interim, investors buy short-term US bonds, with the anticipation that one year hence someone else will lend the federal government money to roll over the debt so that at some time in the future the US will fix the expenditure problem. This strategy works - until it doesn't.

But what's our excuse now? At 4% unemployment, after 8+ years of uninterrupted growth, if we can't sit down now and solve the problem, when will we? Markets have a right to think perhaps the US federal government is so fractured we won't be able to fix this problem in time.

Or, more accurately, markets have a right to worry that next year's markets will have that worry, and get out now.

 
Old 03-01-2018, 08:30 AM
 
17,612 posts, read 12,197,156 times
Reputation: 12826
A lot of people are for cutting spending up until the point it impacts them. It shouldn’t be a stunning revelation but that’s how it works.

CUT! CUT! CUT!

What you can’t close the Army Base near me!
 
Old 03-01-2018, 09:35 AM
 
Location: The Triad (NC)
26,837 posts, read 57,830,396 times
Reputation: 29220
Quote:
Originally Posted by SportyandMisty View Post
Now is the time to get entitlement spending under control..
Now is the time to align public policies with the realities of the weak earned income opportunities
for the no & low skilled populations most commonly depending on entitlement spending.

had we done that 30 years ago or more...
 
Old 03-01-2018, 09:58 AM
 
Location: Philadelphia/South Jersey area
2,280 posts, read 1,033,859 times
Reputation: 7543
Lol. Timing isn't the problem with any budget. Lol as LE mentioned it's what to cut. I'll admit as a senior I get ornery when they even hint at social security or Medicare cuts
 
Old 03-01-2018, 10:04 AM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
2,978 posts, read 1,012,279 times
Reputation: 3796
Quote:
Originally Posted by eliza61nyc View Post
Lol. Timing isn't the problem with any budget. Lol as LE mentioned it's what to cut. I'll admit as a senior I get ornery when they even hint at social security or Medicare cuts
Right, because you earned those while all other entitlements are wasted money thrown at the unworthy.

The problem with factionalism is that only one faction wins. And it may not be yours.
 
Old 03-01-2018, 10:08 AM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
8,959 posts, read 3,114,068 times
Reputation: 7046
Quote:
Originally Posted by SportyandMisty View Post
Now is the time to get entitlement spending under control.

I find these charts compelling, and fit within the category of "any trend that cannot go on forever, won't."

The first chart shows entitlement spending per year divided by the number of US Citizens. It is the entitlement cost per person. It now stands at $7500 per citizen.



The second chart shows entitlement spending as a percent of GDP. We're now up to 13%.



Our economy is doing well: unemployment numbers are way down, employment numbers are way up, GDP numbers are up, tax receipts are up, business optimism is up, consumer optimism is up... By most economic measures, things are going well.

Except that at the federal level, there appears to be no check on total expenditures.

We have known for decades that the fundamental US problem is promised entitlement spending far beyond what our current tax system can fund. Markets have presumed that the US would fix this problem sooner or later. It's not that hard as a matter of economics. In the interim, investors buy short-term US bonds, with the anticipation that one year hence someone else will lend the federal government money to roll over the debt so that at some time in the future the US will fix the expenditure problem. This strategy works - until it doesn't.

But what's our excuse now? At 4% unemployment, after 8+ years of uninterrupted growth, if we can't sit down now and solve the problem, when will we? Markets have a right to think perhaps the US federal government is so fractured we won't be able to fix this problem in time.

Or, more accurately, markets have a right to worry that next year's markets will have that worry, and get out now.

Our excuse is that the entire political establishment is gutless, and wont' do anything about it.
The problem eventually will be solved by one of these means:
1. Inflation
2. Interest rate hikes
3. Automatic cuts to benefits
 
Old 03-01-2018, 10:20 AM
 
Location: Philadelphia/South Jersey area
2,280 posts, read 1,033,859 times
Reputation: 7543
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
Right, because you earned those while all other entitlements are wasted money thrown at the unworthy.

The problem with factionalism is that only one faction wins. And it may not be yours.
Oh totally and what's interesting at least in my case, my "fractions" have changed. Lol when I was a young mom and hubby and i were broke, medicaid and healthcare were priority number one.
 
Old 03-01-2018, 10:30 AM
 
Location: SC
8,382 posts, read 5,021,700 times
Reputation: 12029
In your charts, what is the definition of "entitlements?" Of what programs does it consist?
 
Old 03-01-2018, 11:18 AM
 
Location: The Triad (NC)
26,837 posts, read 57,830,396 times
Reputation: 29220
Quote:
Originally Posted by blktoptrvl View Post
In your charts, what is the definition of "entitlements?"
It's always about what someone else gets.
 
Old 03-01-2018, 11:27 AM
 
3,325 posts, read 3,259,105 times
Reputation: 8423
I hate Medicaid! I hate SSI! I hate SNAP! I hate subsidized housing!

oops, I just got laid off. I don't have enough money to stay afloat. Quietly, I'll apply for Medicaid, SNAP, maybe I can go on SSI, since I don't think I"m gonna get another job. I just won't tell anyone.

But publicly, I'll continue to shout that I hate all those social welfare programs!

It's sort of like the person who is anti-abortion, until they or their close relative/girlfriend, whatever, needs one. THEN they're okay with it.

The only justified social welfare program is the one that I need, and only when I need it.
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