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Old 03-22-2018, 04:29 PM
 
2,135 posts, read 1,148,031 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
Iím not sure why thatís posted in response to my post.
Yeah it wasn't directed at you but the thought you had posted about nations getting off the dollar is why I quoted it. Probably shouldn't of.
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Old 03-22-2018, 04:34 PM
 
8,021 posts, read 6,220,904 times
Reputation: 12004
Quote:
Originally Posted by boxus View Post
It should have been done years ago before China had any real leverage.

Still not too late, China is heavily dependent on the outside world for manufacturing (as in it is the outside world setting up shop in China or through Chinese companies) and innovation.

If the US declared no US business can conduct business there, nor can any company sell to the US if they operate in China, China would collapse.
This is still forgetting the law of supply and demand.

1.The businesses that operated in China shut down shop there. They lose access to that market. Hell GM is selling more cars in China than in the U.S.

2. The price of goods will increase. Yes whenever a minimum wage hike or increasing corporate taxes are brought up we are told time and time again that those hikes will be passed to the consumers. What makes people think that this will be different? If these companies move their entire manufacturing base here yes they hire American workers but unlike Chinese or Mexican or other workers in developing countries, Americans don't work for cheap not just in terms of wages but in terms of benefits, labor laws and safety regulations. Even our low-skilled workers are more expensive than those in China, Mexico and Korea.

3. As prices increase demand may decrease defeating the purpose to bringing manufacturing plants back here in mass. Some plants are already either laying off workers or are idling due to weak demand for their products.

What people don't know about China is that there is an emerging consumer market over there. Companies haven't just gone over there to exploit cheap labor and export products back to the U.S. but they want to sell to that market.

Last edited by Ro2113; 03-22-2018 at 05:01 PM..
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Old 03-22-2018, 04:38 PM
 
2,135 posts, read 1,148,031 times
Reputation: 4368
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoonose View Post
I don't think it is.

Over the long time frame we will see the emergence of the Yuan as a world reserve. And then China, as we did, will have to figure out how to produce and then present and ship massive amounts of their new fiat or debt overseas.
More likely it will be a basket. Likely the start of a world currency.

The thing about that is it will be a hard sell in our conspiracy theory rich nation.

Then it goes one of two ways.

Either it is a huge bust, staying away would be beneficial but this is unlikely if all the other big players get on board.

The other side of the coin is if you don't jump on board first, you're likely to be the red headed step child trying to come back on and with far less influence and likely a much worse exchange rate.

Regardless, there is going to be a need to reset the system. Easiest way, assuming we don't nuke each other, is to create a new fiat with new rules on debt and control, artificially set the value well over current fiat and go from there. Demand booms because we just basically reset the debt counters and everyone wants the new "credit". Just like devaluing but without the consequences if most get on board.
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Old 03-22-2018, 05:04 PM
 
8,272 posts, read 3,452,461 times
Reputation: 1584
Quote:
Originally Posted by aridon View Post
More likely it will be a basket. Likely the start of a world currency.

The thing about that is it will be a hard sell in our conspiracy theory rich nation.

Then it goes one of two ways.

Either it is a huge bust, staying away would be beneficial but this is unlikely if all the other big players get on board.

The other side of the coin is if you don't jump on board first, you're likely to be the red headed step child trying to come back on and with far less influence and likely a much worse exchange rate.

Regardless, there is going to be a need to reset the system. Easiest way, assuming we don't nuke each other, is to create a new fiat with new rules on debt and control, artificially set the value well over current fiat and go from there. Demand booms because we just basically reset the debt counters and everyone wants the new "credit". Just like devaluing but without the consequences if most get on board.
IMO we will simply have more reserve choices moving forward. Demand for USD and USD based debt and investment will stay high 'in the free world' since the world will be a larger economic place in the future.
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Old 03-22-2018, 05:07 PM
 
8,272 posts, read 3,452,461 times
Reputation: 1584
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ro2113 View Post
This is still forgetting the law of supply and demand.

1.The businesses that operated in China shut down shop there. They lose access to that market. Hell GM is selling more cars in China than in the U.S.

2. The price of goods will increase. Yes whenever a minimum wage hike or increasing corporate taxes are brought up we are told time and time again that those hikes will be passed to the consumers. What makes people think that this will be different? If these companies move their entire manufacturing base here yes they hire American workers but unlike Chinese or Mexican or other workers in developing countries, Americans don't work for cheap not just in terms of wages but in terms of benefits, labor laws and safety regulations. Even our low-skilled workers are more expensive than those in China, Mexico and Korea.

3. As prices increase demand may decrease defeating the purpose to bringing manufacturing plants back here in mass. Some plants are already either laying off workers or are idling due to weak demand for their products.

What people don't know about China is that there is an emerging consumer market over there. Companies haven't just gone over there to exploit cheap labor and export products back to the U.S. but they want to sell to that market.
And China is already turning their economy from massive industrial export towards consumer oriented. They will have to do this as they advance toward the first world. They already have the world's largest middle class. We should try and participate, not isolate ourselves from that market.
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Old 03-22-2018, 05:23 PM
 
12,623 posts, read 12,065,272 times
Reputation: 17261
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ro2113 View Post
This is still forgetting the law of supply and demand.

1.The businesses that operated in China shut down shop there. They lose access to that market. Hell GM is selling more cars in China than in the U.S.

2. The price of goods will increase. Yes whenever a minimum wage hike or increasing corporate taxes are brought up we are told time and time again that those hikes will be passed to the consumers. What makes people think that this will be different? If these companies move their entire manufacturing base here yes they hire American workers but unlike Chinese or Mexican or other workers in developing countries, Americans don't work for cheap not just in terms of wages but in terms of benefits, labor laws and safety regulations. Even our low-skilled workers are more expensive than those in China, Mexico and Korea.

3. As prices increase demand may decrease defeating the purpose to bringing manufacturing plants back here in mass. Some plants are already either laying off workers or are idling due to weak demand for their products.

What people don't know about China is that there is an emerging consumer market over there. Companies haven't just gone over there to exploit cheap labor and export products back to the U.S. but they want to sell to that market.
I do not disagree, that is why I said this should have done years ago.

We are financing China's military, yet spending billions of dollars to counter that military, it makes zero sense.
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Old 03-22-2018, 05:26 PM
 
8,021 posts, read 6,220,904 times
Reputation: 12004
Quote:
Originally Posted by boxus View Post
I do not disagree, that is why I said this should have done years ago.

We are financing China's military, yet spending billions of dollars to counter that military, it makes zero sense.
We've essentially always financed the militaries of our allies. That's what China was, an ally up until this administration.
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Old 03-22-2018, 05:26 PM
 
Location: Honolulu, HI
4,548 posts, read 1,136,052 times
Reputation: 6517
Quote:
Originally Posted by boxus View Post
It should have been done years ago before China had any real leverage.

Still not too late, China is heavily dependent on the outside world for manufacturing (as in it is the outside world setting up shop in China or through Chinese companies) and innovation.

If the US declared no US business can conduct business there, nor can any company sell to the US if they operate in China, China would collapse.
China owns a lot of American debt though, so they do have some leverage in that regard. Obliviously China still needs a successful American economy in order for they themselves to thrive, but one never really knows what will happen under our current administration or if Trump even cares that China owns a large portion of American debt.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ro2113 View Post
We've essentially always financed the militaries of our allies. That's what China was, an ally up until this administration.
China was an ally up until the Korean war where their intervention led to a present day North Korea.

From then on, China was simply a business partner. If they were our ally they would not be disputing or trying to influence land/island/and territories against our real allies of Japan/South Korea/Taiwan etc.
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Old 03-22-2018, 05:46 PM
 
2,240 posts, read 1,385,700 times
Reputation: 4894
https://www.theatlantic.com/internat...inance/254779/
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Old 03-22-2018, 05:49 PM
 
8,272 posts, read 3,452,461 times
Reputation: 1584
Quote:
Originally Posted by boxus View Post
I do not disagree, that is why I said this should have done years ago.

We are financing China's military, yet spending billions of dollars to counter that military, it makes zero sense.
Only to the extent that they use USD's for their military needs. It's the same 'zero sense' that they have USD's in the first place.

Meaning they sell us all our cheap sht. We pay with fiat.

They build their military with their own fiat. For the most part.
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