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Old 03-22-2018, 10:30 AM
 
Location: Silicon Valley
2,746 posts, read 1,207,954 times
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So it looks like Trump is going to step in an put tariffs on Chinese tech goods and possibly limit capital inflows from China. China hits back by stopping the import of farm goods, of which, America's are largely commodities. I'm surprisingly an optimist in this tiff.

Farm prices are falling overall anyway as productivity goes higher, but manufacturing tech in a country that could not export to the US would be a disaster for that country.

What are your thoughts?
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Old 03-22-2018, 10:56 AM
 
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It depends on how much Trump insists on escalating and retaliating to other countries' retaliation. It could go anywhere from "minor drag on the economy" to "bookmark http://www.city-data.com/forum/self-sufficiency-preparedness/".
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Old 03-22-2018, 11:16 AM
 
2,240 posts, read 1,385,700 times
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Honestly?

Trump is doing an excellent job of showing the world why the dollar system is broken and his idiotic actions will only serve to highlight the urgency of transitioning the world away from the dollar.

Not to mention, I get pretty worried when the representatives of the people, the congress, continue to give shoved aside. Yet another step towards an imperial presidency. With the U.s military and an attitude that seems to be hell bent on economic ware fare, that’s a bad scenario for the world.

Last edited by Thatsright19; 03-22-2018 at 11:25 AM..
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Old 03-22-2018, 11:29 AM
 
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Also sell your Boeing stock. I would think the recent $37B contract is a concern. China is likely to switch to Airbus.
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Old 03-22-2018, 11:38 AM
 
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It is a war we cannot win because of the differences in general economic/money theory.

China can bury any of their costs or losses due to our tariffs very easily through their central command, central bank money policies.

The essence IMO is an insult and a distraction.
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Old 03-22-2018, 03:27 PM
 
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It should have been done years ago before China had any real leverage.

Still not too late, China is heavily dependent on the outside world for manufacturing (as in it is the outside world setting up shop in China or through Chinese companies) and innovation.

If the US declared no US business can conduct business there, nor can any company sell to the US if they operate in China, China would collapse.
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Old 03-22-2018, 03:40 PM
 
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Petro yuan vs petro dollar heating up.
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Old 03-22-2018, 03:54 PM
 
2,136 posts, read 1,149,266 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
Honestly?

Trump is doing an excellent job of showing the world why the dollar system is broken and his idiotic actions will only serve to highlight the urgency of transitioning the world away from the dollar.

Not to mention, I get pretty worried when the representatives of the people, the congress, continue to give shoved aside. Yet another step towards an imperial presidency. With the U.s military and an attitude that seems to be hell bent on economic ware fare, that’s a bad scenario for the world.


First we are direct benefactors of the dollar being a world reserve currency. Everything is priced in dollars and it limits our impacts from a form of inflation as our currency swings from the ups and downs. It gives us a huge advantage and something we don't want to go away. Especially given our enormous debt load and more importantly the speed which that debt is growing with the Republican congress and President spending money like they are. Since after all, if the rest of the world starts dumping dollars or even just doesn't prefer dollars, I don't have to tell you where our currency is going to head.

Second, trade wars end up with no winners. However this is a bit different than in the past. We have become dependent on cheap imports to keep inflation low and wages low. We are now mostly a service based economy as well which hasn't really seen much wage growth, in fact negative growth for most of America over the last 30 years or so outside of a few industries which are likely well in bubble territory. Health care being a big one. One dimensional economies do not fair well when times get rough. The rest of the world is rapidly catching up to us. In the not distant future our 300m people are going to have a lot more competition for resources from the other 6 billion people on the planet.

Third, even if you tariff the crap out of China, Europe and whoever, the jobs aren't coming back. They will move to some third world **** hole that doesn't have tariffs and the process will start over again. The difference is in the short to medium term we are going to lose tons of jobs and our entire economy is going to be disrupted because a bunch of idiots without the slightest understanding of Macro Economics think that "herp derp we can tariff dem jobs back, yup, hick up!" So long as we don't have millions of virtual slaves to exploit and land to rape and dump waste as we see fit the jobs aren't coming back to the USA.

Fourth, prices rising, interest rates rising to combat that and growth slowing (due to rising interest rates and our incredible desire to remain in debt as a nation) is almost inevitable under any sort of trade war scenario. That is called stagflation and pretty much the worse case scenario. Especially when self inflicted. There is almost no room for stimulus with the current Washington spending spree in full effect.

We are literally watching a massive train wreck in slow motion. Most people have no idea how ****ed we are going to be. The rest of the world is going to move on without us while we crumble from within hugging our phallus shaped bullets and bombs. Oh and our debt. We love our debt. Gotta have it, but put it on a payment plan please.

Last edited by aridon; 03-22-2018 at 04:21 PM..
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Old 03-22-2018, 04:18 PM
 
2,240 posts, read 1,385,700 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aridon View Post
First we are direct benefactors of the dollar being a world reserve currency. Everything is priced in dollars and it limits our impacts from a form of inflation as our currency swings from the ups and downs. It gives us a huge advantage and something we don't want to go away. Especially given our enormous debt load and more importantly the speed which that debt is growing with the Republican congress and President spending money like they are. Since after all, if the rest of the world starts dumping dollars or even just doesn't prefer dollars, I don't have to tell you where our currency is going to head.

Second, trade wars end up with no winners. However this is a bit different than in the past. We have become dependent on cheap imports to keep inflation low and wages low. We are now mostly a service based economy as well which hasn't really seen much wage growth, in fact negative growth for most of America over the last 30 years or so outside of a few industries which are likely well in bubble territory. Health care being a big one. One dimensional economies do not fair well when times get rough.

Third, even if you tariff the crap out of China, Europe and whoever, the jobs aren't coming back. They will move to some third world **** hole that doesn't have tariffs and the process will start over again. The difference is in the short to medium term we are going to lose tons of jobs and our entire economy is going to be disrupted because a bunch of idiots without the slightest understanding of Macro Economics think that "herp derp we can tariff dem jobs back, yup, hick up!" So long as we don't have millions of virtual slaves to exploit and land to rape and dump waste as we see fit the jobs aren't coming back to the USA.

Fourth, prices rising, interest rates rising to combat that and growth slowing (due to rising interest rates and our incredible desire to remain in debt as a nation) is almost inevitable under any sort of trade war scenario. That is called stagflation and pretty much the worse case scenario. Especially when self inflicted. There is almost no room for stimulus with the current Washington spending spree in full effect.

We are literally watching a massive train wreck in slow motion. Most people have no idea how ****ed we are going to be. The rest of the world is going to move on without us while we crumble from within hugging our phallus shaped bullets and bombs. Oh and our debt. We love our debt. Gotta have it, but put it on a payment plan please.
Iím not sure why thatís posted in response to my post.
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Old 03-22-2018, 04:28 PM
 
8,279 posts, read 3,452,461 times
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I don't think it is.

Over the long time frame we will see the emergence of the Yuan as a world reserve. And then China, as we did, will have to figure out how to produce and then present and ship massive amounts of their new fiat or debt overseas.
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