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Old 04-05-2018, 07:34 PM
 
2,797 posts, read 2,511,845 times
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Some speculation rooted in past theory (IMF Bancor)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bancor
with a twist on new technology. The hording and purchase of hard assets by China and other foreign countries will lead to a push toward a digital crypto "Bancor" world currency that recalibrates based upon each respective countries asset/ commodity holdings (combination of precious metal alloys, agri and fuel resources).


SDRs will migrate to Digital Bancor under the BIS
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_f...al_Settlements

It would probably look to average USA citizen like a 'bank holiday' of the 1930s and after the banks reopen with the new 'system' your account that held, say, $500,000 in USD will now - based on USA commodity basket of distribution across the global spectrum - results in your account being worth, say $100,000 crypto 'Bancor'. I think this is what the central banks will try to do in their search for a digital crypto system based on something other countries can agree upon and maintain some level of stability.


I don't think China will necessarily dump US debt so much as continue to acquire hard asset commodity real value, so when the debt is 'factored' into the new system, they come out with biggest weight of value and in turn have larger controlling interest to 'steer' the global financial ship to their benefit much as the USA has under the current Petro dollar.


There is also a Crypto Petrodollar recently introduced.
https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/03/13/p...ryptocurrency/
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Old 04-05-2018, 07:49 PM
 
7,045 posts, read 3,698,941 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aridon View Post
Fact of the matter is, the United States will lose, bigly, in a trade war with China. The Chinese will simply match tariff for tariff in a calm, calculating way and ultimately we consumers are going to buy the goods anyway and pay for it.
That's laughable. China cannot match tariff for tariff because they export over $500 billion to us and import $130 billion. So they can match tariffs on $130 billion and then they are out of ammo.

And what China imports are essentials like food, fuel, raw materials that they cannot simply do without and cannot easily be sourced elsewhere. Meanwhile, we import mostly junk, cheap versions of products available elsewhere. Our consumers will pay higher prices for discretionary goods and whine about it. Their consumers will starve.

And if China really crosses the line, we void the debt they hold.
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Old 04-05-2018, 08:10 PM
 
17,613 posts, read 12,197,156 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oceangaia View Post
That's laughable. China cannot match tariff for tariff because they export over $500 billion to us and import $130 billion. So they can match tariffs on $130 billion and then they are out of ammo.

And what China imports are essentials like food, fuel, raw materials that they cannot simply do without and cannot easily be sourced elsewhere. Meanwhile, we import mostly junk, cheap versions of products available elsewhere. Our consumers will pay higher prices for discretionary goods and whine about it. Their consumers will starve.
If China turns away from US agricultural who picks it up from the US? You can worry about Chinese starving but that’s really not our issue.

Moderator cut: personal attack
Quote:
"China can't cut out completely from their import program [for soybeans]," said Ted Seifried, chief market strategist at Zaner Group, a Chicago-based futures brokerage. "But even if they were to drop 10 percent of what we're sending to them — and favor South America as much as they can — it would still have a huge impact on our balance."

Last edited by harry chickpea; 04-06-2018 at 08:54 AM..
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Old 04-05-2018, 08:19 PM
 
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I thought Ron Paul had left the building, yet we're still getting "China dumps debt" threads?

Can I get a hyperinflation and gold standard for the trifecta?
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Old 04-05-2018, 08:57 PM
 
2,136 posts, read 1,149,266 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oceangaia View Post
That's laughable. China cannot match tariff for tariff because they export over $500 billion to us and import $130 billion. So they can match tariffs on $130 billion and then they are out of ammo.

And what China imports are essentials like food, fuel, raw materials that they cannot simply do without and cannot easily be sourced elsewhere. Meanwhile, we import mostly junk, cheap versions of products available elsewhere. Our consumers will pay higher prices for discretionary goods and whine about it. Their consumers will starve.

And if China really crosses the line, we void the debt they hold.
Voiding debt is retarded. Only and idiot would even suggest it.

We pay on both ends so no, it isn't laughable. Our exports will be substituted, like Airbus over Boeing or South America for our Soybeans. China has tons of pork so that is laughable and our cars / motorcycles will rot on the docks and GM will be in bankruptcy again.

Our consumer demand will drop with inflation, our interest rates will go up as a result of inflation and we will see growth go negative. Especially with interest rates up and consumer debt at record levels. Stagflation.

None of the jobs are going to leave Asia. They have 4.5b people and that is the world's economic future because that is where the growth will be. They are going to drive demand for goods and they are going to be the consumers of choice.

The United States isn't going to fall off a cliff no more than Britain or France fell off a cliff as they lost world dominance. The world's attention will shift because population and economic says that is where the $$$ will be made.

We've peaked baby. We're buried under a mountain of debt, the "fiscal conservatives" are running 1.4T deficits and still cruising the world like we own the place. We are going to end up like the old Soviets and it will be our own doing.
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Old 04-05-2018, 09:05 PM
 
Location: Florida
19,649 posts, read 8,216,795 times
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These speculations and resulting scenarios are all very interesting.

Not being facetious, but I am just curious if any of those putting forth responses of 'what will happen' also predicted the credit default swap disaster, business and bank failures and the crash of 2007?
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Old 04-05-2018, 09:23 PM
 
2,136 posts, read 1,149,266 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enigma777 View Post
These speculations and resulting scenarios are all very interesting.

Not being facetious, but I am just curious if any of those putting forth responses of 'what will happen' also predicted the credit default swap disaster, business and bank failures and the crash of 2007?
Totally different things.

Credit swaps were fine until defaults rose to the point that the market makers didn't want to make a market anymore. That is a bubble and predicting a bubble bursting on time is difficult. Seeing one, like say Bitcoin, can be easy but that doesn't mean the market can't have wild fluctuations in the meantime before it deflates.

Trade wars are a little different. The math and economics are very well known. Tariffs will be paid by consumers, tariffs will raise prices there by increasing inflation and inflation is bad for a nation whose consumer credit balances (non home) are at record levels because inflation causes interest rates to rise. That is pretty much the worse case scenario as the inflation is caused by something we have total control over.

What is happening right now is going to spin us right into a recession and likely worse.

The idea that factories are suddenly going to spring up over night and we are going to have manufacturing jobs return to the United States because stuff now costs 25% more is completely retarded. Even with the demand drop from rising prices there is going to be no incentive to move jobs back here. There is far more in play than a measly 25% of which most consumer will still buy, just less.

We get nothing out of this but pain, which is why it is nothing but stupid.

Asia has 4.5 billion people there. Everything is on the upswing there and that is where the world's economic growth is going to occur. That is where stuff will get made, shipped from / to etc because that is where the consumers are going to be.

Europe used to be the power house. They literally ran the world. Then they faded to what they are today. Well now it is our turn.

We can either enjoy a mature service based economy with cheap goods or we can **** in the punch bowl and have a service based economy with goods that are 25% more expensive because our President is a moron. Either way, nothing is going to change but I promise you we will all pay more and American's can't afford another payment plan.
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Old 04-05-2018, 10:08 PM
 
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I have read about China buying things like real estate even at a loss just to get rid of worthless U.S. Debt. This was going on years ago.
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Old 04-06-2018, 12:25 AM
 
94 posts, read 38,133 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aridon View Post
Voiding debt is retarded. Only and idiot would even suggest it.

We pay on both ends so no, it isn't laughable. Our exports will be substituted, like Airbus over Boeing or South America for our Soybeans. China has tons of pork so that is laughable and our cars / motorcycles will rot on the docks and GM will be in bankruptcy again.

Our consumer demand will drop with inflation, our interest rates will go up as a result of inflation and we will see growth go negative. Especially with interest rates up and consumer debt at record levels. Stagflation.

None of the jobs are going to leave Asia. They have 4.5b people and that is the world's economic future because that is where the growth will be. They are going to drive demand for goods and they are going to be the consumers of choice.

The United States isn't going to fall off a cliff no more than Britain or France fell off a cliff as they lost world dominance. The world's attention will shift because population and economic says that is where the $$$ will be made.

We've peaked baby. We're buried under a mountain of debt, the "fiscal conservatives" are running 1.4T deficits and still cruising the world like we own the place. We are going to end up like the old Soviets and it will be our own doing.
You Nailed It.....!!!!!!!!!!! Unfortunately, many people don't see the "writing on the wall." Prosperity is shifting eastward. The west has reached its peak. Now with the introduction of the PetroYuan countries can purchase oil in the Yuan and the US $ as a reserve currency is slowly losing status. US is already in a recession. I wouldn't be surprised if a depression is not on the horizon as the country adjust to its new status and all those worthless dollars return to US shores.
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Old 04-06-2018, 07:49 AM
 
27,447 posts, read 44,947,050 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
China holds $1.168 TRILLION as of January 2018.

It's unlikely China will dump its holding of US securities.

China, Japan and South Korea have been studying the feasibility of a unified Asian currency for some years now, and will continue to do computer simulations and modeling for some time. China's use of the Yuan for oil and other commodities is just the first step to move the currency to some stability.
But all China has to do is reduce its purchase of NEW US debt and we will feel the effect...
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