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Old 04-06-2018, 07:51 AM
 
5,742 posts, read 1,286,552 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oceangaia View Post
That's laughable. China cannot match tariff for tariff because they export over $500 billion to us and import $130 billion. So they can match tariffs on $130 billion and then they are out of ammo.

And what China imports are essentials like food, fuel, raw materials that they cannot simply do without and cannot easily be sourced elsewhere. Meanwhile, we import mostly junk, cheap versions of products available elsewhere. Our consumers will pay higher prices for discretionary goods and whine about it. Their consumers will starve.

And if China really crosses the line, we void the debt they hold.
None of this will be necessary.

The Chinese want the status quo and Trump wants to fulfill a campaign promise and score a victory against the Chinese for his base. So the Chinese will lower tariffs on couple of items that will allow Trump to brag about winning against the Chinese while overall trade remains virtually unchanged. And the recently enacted tariffs on both sides be removed. Right after all of this the stock market will once again move towards record territory which gives Trump the opportunity to take credit for the market rise.

Everyone wins.
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Old 04-06-2018, 07:59 AM
 
7,042 posts, read 3,698,941 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
If China turns away from US agricultural who picks it up from the US? You can worry about Chinese starving but that’s really not our issue.
Of course it's our issue. There are two sides to every dispute and how much the other side stands to lose is a major factor in how much leverage you have in your position. Those of you that only look at it in terms of how it will hurt us cannot determine if we will be successful or not.

The fact remains that we have a massive trade deficit with China. We have 5x as much activity to apply tariffs on as they do. They cannot win a tit-for-tat because there is no tit-for tat. More like a tit-for-tat-tat-tat-tat-tat with them being the tit.

China has much more to less and while they may be able to sustain those losses better in the short-term due to cash reserves, in the long-term they would be devastated. We export $130 billion to China. In a trade block, we stand to lose $130 billion in revenues. Sounds bad except it is a small fraction of our $20 Trillion GDP. Our military budget alone is more than 5x that. But the loss of $130B exports would not happen in a vacuum but also accompanied with a $500B reduction in outflows. China could never replace anywhere near that amount by exporting elsewhere. There simply aren't any other $500Billion markets for them.
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Old 04-06-2018, 08:13 AM
 
17,612 posts, read 12,197,156 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oceangaia View Post
Of course it's our issue. There are two sides to every dispute and how much the other side stands to lose is a major factor in how much leverage you have in your position. Those of you that only look at it in terms of how it will hurt us cannot determine if we will be successful or not.

The fact remains that we have a massive trade deficit with China. We have 5x as much activity to apply tariffs on as they do. They cannot win a tit-for-tat because there is no tit-for tat. More like a tit-for-tat-tat-tat-tat-tat with them being the tit.

China has much more to less and while they may be able to sustain those losses better in the short-term due to cash reserves, in the long-term they would be devastated. We export $130 billion to China. In a trade block, we stand to lose $130 billion in revenues. Sounds bad except it is a small fraction of our $20 Trillion GDP. Our military budget alone is more than 5x that. But the loss of $130B exports would not happen in a vacuum but also accompanied with a $500B reduction in outflows. China could never replace anywhere near that amount by exporting elsewhere. There simply aren't any other $500Billion markets for them.
If China stops buying even a fraction of our soybeans and instead buys from South America it will hurt not the US but it will hurt US soybean farmers. China starving is a gross exaggeration
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Old 04-06-2018, 08:19 AM
 
7,042 posts, read 3,698,941 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
If China stops buying even a fraction of our soybeans and instead buys from South America it will hurt not the US but it will hurt US soybean farmers. China starving is a gross exaggeration
Can South America produce that much? You continue to look at it only in terms of how it hurts us. I imagine you would have declared we could not win WW2 because we would suffer 200k casualties. Well we won it by inflicting 2 million casualties on the other side. We can pay off the soybean farmers with the tariff revenue on $500B.
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Old 04-06-2018, 08:31 AM
 
17,612 posts, read 12,197,156 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oceangaia View Post
Can South America produce that much? You continue to look at it only in terms of how it hurts us. I imagine you would have declared we could not win WW2 because we would suffer 200k casualties. Well we won it by inflicting 2 million casualties on the other side. We can pay off the soybean farmers with the tariff revenue on $500B.
Yes South America can pick up a fraction of what the US sells to China. Your ww2 example is also irrelevant. These issue might not hurt the US but they will hurt a lot of people in the US
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Old 04-06-2018, 09:01 AM
 
7,042 posts, read 3,698,941 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
Yes South America can pick up a fraction of what the US sells to China. Your ww2 example is also irrelevant. These issue might not hurt the US but they will hurt a lot of people in the US
Not quickly, not like they have tons of soybeans sitting in silos waiting for a buyer. And the example is not irrelevant because you declare it irrelevant. It was an analogy that illustrates how you cannot determine the outcome of a "war" by looking at the losses incurred by one side. You have to look at the relative losses by both sides.
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Old 04-06-2018, 09:17 AM
 
17,612 posts, read 12,197,156 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oceangaia View Post
Not quickly, not like they have tons of soybeans sitting in silos waiting for a buyer. And the example is not irrelevant because you declare it irrelevant. It was an analogy that illustrates how you cannot determine the outcome of a "war" by looking at the losses incurred by one side. You have to look at the relative losses by both sides.
I wasn’t attempting to determine the outcome of a war. I was also not trying to determine if the US or China would win the trade war. I am concerned for the impact on folks here in American and not really concerned about those living in China. South America will certainly fill the void especially when the Chinese are willing to pay and to be clear I’m not talking 100% replacement, 10% movement will hurt a lot of Americans
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Old 04-06-2018, 09:35 AM
 
6,815 posts, read 4,408,035 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jackwinkelman View Post
None of this will be necessary.

The Chinese want the status quo and Trump wants to fulfill a campaign promise and score a victory against the Chinese for his base. So the Chinese will lower tariffs on couple of items that will allow Trump to brag about winning against the Chinese while overall trade remains virtually unchanged. And the recently enacted tariffs on both sides be removed. Right after all of this the stock market will once again move towards record territory which gives Trump the opportunity to take credit for the market rise.

Everyone wins.
I hope that you're right, that recent events are mere posturing and unfurling of peacock feathers; that after rhetorical points are scored, normalcy returns. But I worry that in some quarters there is too much fascination with really shaking things up, with really wholesale and invasive changes - so much so, that "broken glass" is deemed to be acceptable.
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Old 04-06-2018, 09:50 AM
 
94 posts, read 38,133 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oceangaia View Post
Can South America produce that much? You continue to look at it only in terms of how it hurts us. I imagine you would have declared we could not win WW2 because we would suffer 200k casualties. Well we won it by inflicting 2 million casualties on the other side. We can pay off the soybean farmers with the tariff revenue on $500B.
You need to study history. The US DID NOT win WWII (at least not alone). In fact, by the time the US joined WWII (Russia had defeated most of Hitler's army already) it was just about over. You can look it up.

"Unfairly or not, the current tensions obscure the scale of what's being commemorated: Starting in 1941, the Soviet Union bore the brunt of the Nazi war machine and played perhaps the most important role in the Allies' defeat of Hitler. By one calculation, for every single American soldier killed fighting the Germans, 80 Soviet soldiers died doing the same."
Read the rest of the article here.
If you do your research you can find plenty of information.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
I wasn’t attempting to determine the outcome of a war. I was also not trying to determine if the US or China would win the trade war. I am concerned for the impact on folks here in American and not really concerned about those living in China. South America will certainly fill the void especially when the Chinese are willing to pay and to be clear I’m not talking 100% replacement, 10% movement will hurt a lot of Americans
You are absolutely correct! These are a couple of comments I read recently about the situation:

"China will grow soybeans somewhere and become as independent as possible, maybe in Africa or elsewhere, they will grow them. Something tells me that their, China's, “silk roads” will soon supply them with all they need.

Growing soybeans is a "low" tech problem. Would take a year to fix, and China has plenty of land and manpower to get it done. Where are American farmers going to sell their beans if China bails on them? We are talking massive disruption in the farming world. If China cuts their rare earth element exports, there is no way the US can fix that fast enough to avoid major disruptions in our way of life."

It appears that eventually China could find a replacement but where will US sell all their soybeans?
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Old 04-06-2018, 11:07 AM
 
4,036 posts, read 1,834,378 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
If China stops buying even a fraction of our soybeans and instead buys from South America it will hurt not the US but it will hurt US soybean farmers. China starving is a gross exaggeration
this tends to dispute that.............

Chapter 9. China and the Soybean Challenge | | Earth Policy Institute
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