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View Poll Results: When do you think the next recession will occur?
There will never be another recession 1 1.08%
Probably within the next 3 years 72 77.42%
Probably in the next 4-6 years 15 16.13%
Probably in 7+ years from now 5 5.38%
Voters: 93. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-13-2018, 08:26 PM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
11,075 posts, read 11,487,748 times
Reputation: 17253

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Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
Okay, let's take Ron Paul.

For as long as I can remember he's been screaming about impending hyperinflation, dollar collapse, gold, economy collapse etc. just like Peter Schiff, when someone is so clearly wrong about what will happen with the economy why are you pointing at him as some beacon of wisdom? Have you ever seen where they profile investments of politicians, Ronny has been absolutely greased with his stupid investments in bear market and precious metal funds. He's absolutely clueless about the economy, yet you just ignore that and try to ride his reputation as a politician as if that means being wrong all the time means he was right.
We have had screaming hyperinflation for years now. Everything but consumer goods has doubled and tripled in price in a very short time. Real estate. Medical care. Stocks. Education. They just don't call it inflation, because they don't want to increase SS payments.
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Old 05-13-2018, 09:56 PM
 
Location: IL/IN/FL/CA/KY/FL
1,126 posts, read 802,496 times
Reputation: 1265
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea
Lending practices were not the cause of the last recession and the requirement for a 20% down-payment went the way of the buggy-whip in the early 1990s.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
Lending practices may not have started the recession, but they caused immense damage. Ask anyone who owned WaMu or Lehman stocks or bonds. Locking up credit brought down Chrysler. Bear Stearns stockholders got back less than 8 cents on the dollar, and of course bond holders got nothing. Mortgage backed securities were the heart of the problem, and the problem was caused by lending practices.
Disagree with you Larry. Mortgage backed securities were the problem because of the people creating the securities, knowing they were junk and selling them anyway.

Lending practices were loosened, but the real problem lies in Americans terrible financial literacy and unwillingness to learn. We had a middle class in the industrial revolution age who were propped up by rising wages from unions and lesser competition from overseas. That middle class spent poorly and didn't educate down the bloodline properly about finances. Today's "middle class" still thinks like a poor person, and even some truly rich people do as well, with very limited regard for their future spending needs, and are instead more focused on tangible items that don't make them look poor on the surface, despite their poor person mindset.

Where lending practices were loosened was in credit criteria - people with 620 credit and below were qualifying for mortgages. The low down payment options just aided those deals along. There may have been income requirements being thinned as well, but my overall point is the same.

Banks/investment firms went out of business or were severely harmed mainly by the securities, not the delinquencies themselves.
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Old 05-13-2018, 10:22 PM
 
4,772 posts, read 2,273,078 times
Reputation: 8864
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
We have had screaming hyperinflation for years now.
No, we haven't.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
Everything but consumer goods has doubled and tripled in price in a very short time. Real estate. Medical care. Stocks. Education. They just don't call it inflation, because they don't want to increase SS payments.
Absolutely false. Real estate, medical care, education, etc. are taken into account in CPI calculations in the proportion of household expenses they reflect. There is no conspiracy spanning multiple administrations among disparate government entities to lie in order to withhold your SS adjustment.
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Old 05-14-2018, 05:21 AM
 
2,253 posts, read 1,398,389 times
Reputation: 4906
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
We have had screaming hyperinflation for years now. Everything but consumer goods has doubled and tripled in price in a very short time. Real estate. Medical care. Stocks. Education. They just don't call it inflation, because they don't want to increase SS payments.
If you want the see Hyperinflation, look at Egypt and Venezuela. Their is not hyperinflation in the United States...
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Old 05-22-2018, 04:56 PM
 
17,750 posts, read 15,043,922 times
Reputation: 6377
Quote:
Originally Posted by nep321 View Post
Peter Schiff correctly predicted the 2008 crisis, so he has excellent credibility. Him, and others are saying that the next crisis will be much worse than 2008...possibly on the scale of the USSR collapse, especially if the US dollar becomes worthless.
He is the classic stopped watch. He was babbling about hyperinflation back in 2008 too. Meanwhile Post Keynesians not only predicted the crash but also predicted stagflation afterwords. You like Schiff because he was the only one they put on American Pravda that talked about the crash . Anyone can say it will happen some day. Prove the rapture will not happen with Jesus en stuff. Every year one can say the rapture is coming an never be proven wrong.

Yeah buy his gold. That's the solution .
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Old 05-22-2018, 07:55 PM
 
1,662 posts, read 1,068,813 times
Reputation: 2161
I give it 5 years and Im being very generous with that number,and it will make the last one seem like tea party.
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Old 05-22-2018, 08:15 PM
 
1,662 posts, read 1,068,813 times
Reputation: 2161
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrGompers View Post
June 16th, 2021
..at 5:30 pm
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Old 05-22-2018, 08:53 PM
 
315 posts, read 202,963 times
Reputation: 261
For the people claiming 12-18 months, I just hope they're still active on City-Data so that we can hear their explanation on why they were wrong. No one is ever accountable enough to step up and just say, "I was wrong because of x". Instead they double down like a cult leader.
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Old 05-22-2018, 08:57 PM
 
Location: Boston
5,097 posts, read 1,465,728 times
Reputation: 3735
internet financial wizards, they're everywhere!
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Old 05-28-2018, 09:04 PM
 
4,772 posts, read 2,273,078 times
Reputation: 8864
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ranredd View Post
For the people claiming 12-18 months, I just hope they're still active on City-Data so that we can hear their explanation on why they were wrong. No one is ever accountable enough to step up and just say, "I was wrong because of x". Instead they double down like a cult leader.
What is funny is how sometimes "x" is framed as something that doesn't count, so they weren't really wrong.

I remember a classic from awhile back when someone was predicting how we'd have economic collapse by end of year, and when that came and went the official reason was that they were actually right except that the government stepped in and artificially propped up the economy. How does that reasoning work... you would have been right, except events you didn't foresee happened that made you wrong, so you weren't wrong? I would have won in Vegas but they didn't deal the cards I expected, so I didn't really lose.
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