U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
View Poll Results: When do you think the next recession will occur?
There will never be another recession 1 1.08%
Probably within the next 3 years 72 77.42%
Probably in the next 4-6 years 15 16.13%
Probably in 7+ years from now 5 5.38%
Voters: 93. You may not vote on this poll

Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 05-28-2018, 09:50 PM
 
2,272 posts, read 1,409,762 times
Reputation: 4943

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ranredd View Post
For the people claiming 12-18 months, I just hope they're still active on City-Data so that we can hear their explanation on why they were wrong. No one is ever accountable enough to step up and just say, "I was wrong because of x". Instead they double down like a cult leader.
I hope Iím wrong because Iíll lose money in the market and my house. Thereís nothing wrong with making an innocent prediction.

Itís only embarrassing when you predict over the top end of days crap like peter Schiff and get it wrong again and again.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 05-29-2018, 02:33 PM
 
Location: Ohio
18,097 posts, read 13,294,380 times
Reputation: 13929
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
I hope Iím wrong because Iíll lose money in the market and my house.
Stock market crashes don't normally coincide with recessions. The market typically crashes after the recession ends and recovery starts, as investors reallocate Capital to those sectors of the economy where expansion is likely to yield the highest profits.

Stock market crashes don't affect all stocks equally. If you lose money, then it's because you bought the wrong stocks.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
We have had screaming hyperinflation for years now.
There's been no hyper-Inflation. Since 2000, the rate of Inflation has averaged only 2.4% annually, which is the best in the world, even better than the UK and Switzerland.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
Everything but consumer goods has doubled and tripled in price in a very short time. Real estate. Medical care. Stocks. Education. They just don't call it inflation, because they don't want to increase SS payments.
Real estate has not doubled or tripled. The median home price in Cincinnati is still $129,000 and it has only increased 6.3%.

Medical care has not doubled or tripled, either. The most recent data shows only a 4.3% increase in 2016. Prescription drugs decreased from 8.9% in 2015 to 1.3% in 2016. Both Medicare and Medicaid increased less than 4% in 2016. Hospital expenditures at 4.7% were 1% less than 2015 and private health insurance increased 5.1%.

While those figures are higher than the annual average Inflation rate, they're not indicative of hyper-Inflation.

The elderly do not buy real estate, and if they do, they are down-sizing to smaller less costly homes. They liquidate stocks for income instead of buying stocks, and they have no interest in higher education.

The average COLA increase since 2000 is 2.2% annually, which is only 0.2% less than the rate of Inflation, so it's not like the elderly are getting screwed.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-29-2018, 02:34 PM
 
Location: Ohio
18,097 posts, read 13,294,380 times
Reputation: 13929
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ranredd View Post
For the people claiming 12-18 months, I just hope they're still active on City-Data so that we can hear their explanation on why they were wrong.
12-18 months is a reasonable educated guess.

In 3 days, this economic expansion will become the 2nd longest economic expansion in history at 107 months.

The three planned rate increases by the Federal Reserve this year could put the brakes on expansion, since the cost of expansion via borrowing will increase. If it doesn't halt expansion, it will certainly slow down expansion.

The current economic expansion would tie the longest in history in July of 2019 and set a new record in August 2019, which is within the 12-18 month time-frame.

While it's certainly within the realm of possibility for the economy to continue for another 12 months unabated after that, it's not within the realm of probability.

There could be political implications.

A recession in 2020 would almost certainly guarantee a Democrat becomes President.

Even though the economy had set a record, and recession is a natural function of the business-cycle, the Media would down-play that, even ignore it, as though it never happened and lay blame on the current Administration's policies for the recession.

Politically speaking, it might be preferable to have a recession sooner, rather than later.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-29-2018, 03:09 PM
Status: "Career Changer" (set 15 days ago)
 
1,038 posts, read 297,701 times
Reputation: 1403
As soon as employees in general are able to command raises, that's when the next recession will occur.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-29-2018, 03:11 PM
 
24,779 posts, read 26,889,616 times
Reputation: 22828
Quote:
Originally Posted by hifijohn View Post
I give it 5 years and Im being very generous with that number,and it will make the last one seem like tea party.
^^This is what I fear and I really hope I'm wrong.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-29-2018, 03:13 PM
 
24,779 posts, read 26,889,616 times
Reputation: 22828
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
There's been no hyper-Inflation. Since 2000, the rate of Inflation has averaged only 2.4% annually, which is the best in the world, even better than the UK and Switzerland.
I agree we haven't had hyperinflation, but the real inflation rate is higher than the official one, IMO.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-29-2018, 07:46 PM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
11,109 posts, read 11,518,073 times
Reputation: 17289
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
I hope Iím wrong because Iíll lose money in the market and my house. Thereís nothing wrong with making an innocent prediction.

Itís only embarrassing when you predict over the top end of days crap like peter Schiff and get it wrong again and again.
Why would you lose money in the market and your house? Do you not have a contingency fund? If not, now is the time to sell enough stocks to carry you through a downturn. The only people who lose money are those who are forced to sell at a loss.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-29-2018, 07:57 PM
 
2,272 posts, read 1,409,762 times
Reputation: 4943
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
Why would you lose money in the market and your house? Do you not have a contingency fund? If not, now is the time to sell enough stocks to carry you through a downturn. The only people who lose money are those who are forced to sell at a loss.
Just because I wouldn’t sell and lock in my losses doesn’t mean I wouldn’t feel the pain of it. And perhaps my words weren’t clear. I mean lose house value not outright lose my house like a foreclosure . If my house value dropped, it could hurt my ability to move to a different metro. All I’m saying is I think there will be a recession but I’m not sitting around hoping for it so I can say “I told you so”.

Also, I don’t own stocks that I can readily sell because they’re all 401k contributions and employer matches. In a really bad situation where I still had my job, I could do a 401k loan, before taking the tax hit of an outright withdrawal. Theoretically I have cash reserves and levers I could pull to drag along under financial stress for a looong time and I wouldn’t have to ever actually recognize those losses....but that assumes I have a job. I’m quite confident that I could find another job, but it may be hard if I had to relocate, and my house was underwater.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-29-2018, 08:03 PM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
11,109 posts, read 11,518,073 times
Reputation: 17289
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
There's been no hyper-Inflation. Since 2000, the rate of Inflation has averaged only 2.4% annually, which is the best in the world, even better than the UK and Switzerland.

Real estate has not doubled or tripled. The median home price in Cincinnati is still $129,000 and it has only increased 6.3%.

Medical care has not doubled or tripled, either. The most recent data shows only a 4.3% increase in 2016. Prescription drugs decreased from 8.9% in 2015 to 1.3% in 2016. Both Medicare and Medicaid increased less than 4% in 2016. Hospital expenditures at 4.7% were 1% less than 2015 and private health insurance increased 5.1%.

While those figures are higher than the annual average Inflation rate, they're not indicative of hyper-Inflation.

The elderly do not buy real estate, and if they do, they are down-sizing to smaller less costly homes. They liquidate stocks for income instead of buying stocks, and they have no interest in higher education.

The average COLA increase since 2000 is 2.2% annually, which is only 0.2% less than the rate of Inflation, so it's not like the elderly are getting screwed.
Cincinnati is not a good example. The ongoing decay of Cincinnati has made national news. I'm surprised that real estate prices have gone up at all. In more desirable areas the picture is quite different. In Eugene, Oregon the *average* home price is now over $300,000, and Eugene is not known as a high dollar area. Rent has been going up at 5% a year, at a time when the feds were insisting there was no consumer inflation. Health insurance rates are projected to go up 50% this year. Nationwide, public in-state tuition has doubled since 2007, AFTER adjusting for CPI inflation.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-29-2018, 08:32 PM
 
4,828 posts, read 2,296,245 times
Reputation: 8974
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
Cincinnati is not a good example. The ongoing decay of Cincinnati has made national news. I'm surprised that real estate prices have gone up at all. In more desirable areas the picture is quite different. In Eugene, Oregon the *average* home price is now over $300,000, and Eugene is not known as a high dollar area
So an actual US city that does have people in it who earn/spend money as consumers isn't a good example because it doesn't fit your "US having hyperinflation" narrative, while you instead offer up a different location with unusually high real estate prices as a better example? That's just retarded dude.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
Rent has been going up at 5% a year, at a time when the feds were insisting there was no consumer inflation
Actually they show the rent component of CPI in western region to be 4.7% from March 2017 -> March 2018, hardly the "no inflation" environment you are implying they published and actually pretty close to the 5% you've thrown out. https://www.bls.gov/regions/west/new...index_west.htm

We can also note it is entirely possible to have an inflation rate much lower than 5% because other components in the basket of goods had much lower increases, or even had decreases.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
Similar Threads
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2018, Advameg, Inc.

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top