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View Poll Results: When do you think the next recession will occur?
There will never be another recession 1 1.08%
Probably within the next 3 years 72 77.42%
Probably in the next 4-6 years 15 16.13%
Probably in 7+ years from now 5 5.38%
Voters: 93. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-05-2018, 04:04 PM
 
Location: Jacksonville, FL
11,024 posts, read 13,362,649 times
Reputation: 6744

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Under the surface, the American economy is in even worse shape today than it was before the 2008 recession. Corporations are more leveraged than ever. Housing bubbles have formed in major metropolitan areas throughout the country and wages have not kept up. The national debt is now up to $21 trillion and growing. The U.S. dollar had it's worst year ever in 2017. The stock market is now showing signs of volatility, which is indicative of a problem. Home lending standards are relaxing a bit, with some now offering "nonprime" mortgages and many lending with small down payments. Income inequality is at an all time high since the gilded age, with one in three Americans now unable to afford basic living necessities. Interest rates are now increasing. And the national debt to GDP ratio is higher than ever.

I predict that the bubble will burst within the next few years and the stock market will crash. Most experts such as Peter Schiff, Bill Gates, Robert Kyosaki, etc., say that the economy will crash much harder than it did in 2008, within the next couple of years...possibly even this year.

I just don't see how home values and stocks can just keep going up and up forever. That has never been the case.

What are your thoughts?

Last edited by nep321; 05-05-2018 at 04:17 PM..
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Old 05-05-2018, 07:08 PM
 
2,240 posts, read 1,385,700 times
Reputation: 4894
I think there will be a recession in the Fall of 2019. Fed is tightening. It won’t be a financial crisis like 2008.

And peter Schiff? Lol...
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Old 05-05-2018, 08:33 PM
 
Location: Jacksonville, FL
11,024 posts, read 13,362,649 times
Reputation: 6744
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
I think there will be a recession in the Fall of 2019. Fed is tightening. It wont be a financial crisis like 2008.

And peter Schiff? Lol...
Peter Schiff correctly predicted the 2008 crisis, so he has excellent credibility. Him, and others are saying that the next crisis will be much worse than 2008...possibly on the scale of the USSR collapse, especially if the US dollar becomes worthless.
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Old 05-05-2018, 09:06 PM
 
2,240 posts, read 1,385,700 times
Reputation: 4894
Quote:
Originally Posted by nep321 View Post
Peter Schiff correctly predicted the 2008 crisis, so he has excellent credibility. Him, and others are saying that the next crisis will be much worse than 2008...possibly on the scale of the USSR collapse, especially if the US dollar becomes worthless.
If by predicted 2008, you mean he predicts collapses into infinity, sure. His clients got slaughtered. He bet the usd would fall. He bet on international markets (he thought they would decouple from the U.s equity collapse) and commodities (usd inflation). The usd surged, international markets got hammered as investors fled to quality, and commodities got crushed. He predicted hyperinflation....we got the worst deflation in 80 years.


He also predicted gold would be $5,000 usd per ounce.
He bet on the Euro over taking the dollar.
He’s been wrong on interest rates foreign and domestic.

He’s been wrong at every turn. A good media personality? Sure. An investment guru? Hardly.
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Old 05-05-2018, 09:25 PM
 
Location: Jacksonville, FL
11,024 posts, read 13,362,649 times
Reputation: 6744
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
If by predicted 2008, you mean he predicts collapses into infinity, sure. His clients got slaughtered. He bet the usd would fall. He bet on international markets (he thought they would decouple from the U.s equity collapse) and commodities (usd inflation). The usd surged, international markets got hammered as investors fled to quality, and commodities got crushed. He predicted hyperinflation....we got the worst deflation in 80 years.


He also predicted gold would be $5,000 usd per ounce.
He bet on the Euro over taking the dollar.
Hes been wrong on interest rates foreign and domestic.

Hes been wrong at every turn. A good media personality? Sure. An investment guru? Hardly.
But it's not just him who's predicting this upcoming crash. Others are as well. I have a feeling he's right about this. The facts and economic conditions speak for themselves.
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Old 05-05-2018, 11:33 PM
 
Location: Future Expat of California
588 posts, read 259,883 times
Reputation: 515
In the past six months or more, I've watching Bloomberg TV on a consistent basis. All of the analysts they have had in recent months have thought the same thoughts but they can't really figure out where the trigger for the recession will come from. Only one this week, pointed to corporate debt and that maybe the crack in the glass but only time will tell.
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Old 05-06-2018, 11:47 AM
 
2,621 posts, read 2,023,746 times
Reputation: 4761
One thing I have learned is markets are really good at kicking the can down the road and delaying the inevitable. It always takes longer than anyone thinks.

Companies are still not in any hurry to expand or hire. This cycle is going to keep dragging forward for many years.
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Old 05-06-2018, 01:49 PM
 
Location: Texas
5,774 posts, read 6,653,219 times
Reputation: 2856
Quote:
Originally Posted by nep321 View Post
Under the surface, the American economy is in even worse shape today than it was before the 2008 recession. Corporations are more leveraged than ever. Housing bubbles have formed in major metropolitan areas throughout the country and wages have not kept up. The national debt is now up to $21 trillion and growing. The U.S. dollar had it's worst year ever in 2017. The stock market is now showing signs of volatility, which is indicative of a problem. Home lending standards are relaxing a bit, with some now offering "nonprime" mortgages and many lending with small down payments. Income inequality is at an all time high since the gilded age, with one in three Americans now unable to afford basic living necessities. Interest rates are now increasing. And the national debt to GDP ratio is higher than ever.

I predict that the bubble will burst within the next few years and the stock market will crash. Most experts such as Peter Schiff, Bill Gates, Robert Kyosaki, etc., say that the economy will crash much harder than it did in 2008, within the next couple of years...possibly even this year.

I just don't see how home values and stocks can just keep going up and up forever. That has never been the case.

What are your thoughts?
I'll take the within the next 3 years, but think it will be within the next 18-24 months. Defaults have been on the rise (both revolving and installment) since late 2017, lending standards have been lax since 2016 and there is no sign of corporate investment/expansion vs. the rate of earnings/share buy backs. Credit is beginning to over-extend, and leverage is pervasive. I however don't think it will be as long lasting as 2008. A sharp V correction (lasting months (more than 6) not years).

Question is...are you prepared for it.
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Old 05-06-2018, 01:55 PM
 
Location: Connecticut
3,534 posts, read 2,690,962 times
Reputation: 2305
June 16th, 2021
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Old 05-06-2018, 02:01 PM
 
11,889 posts, read 14,355,740 times
Reputation: 7526
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
If by predicted 2008, you mean he predicts collapses into infinity, sure. His clients got slaughtered. He bet the usd would fall. He bet on international markets (he thought they would decouple from the U.s equity collapse) and commodities (usd inflation). The usd surged, international markets got hammered as investors fled to quality, and commodities got crushed. He predicted hyperinflation....we got the worst deflation in 80 years.


He also predicted gold would be $5,000 usd per ounce.
He bet on the Euro over taking the dollar.
Hes been wrong on interest rates foreign and domestic.

Hes been wrong at every turn. A good media personality? Sure. An investment guru? Hardly.
He's made so many wrong predictions he's due for a correct one!
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