It's Phil Town's bear report again (buying, money, investment, prediction)

[k374]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrJH8SOOR6k

What do you guys think? Fear mongering or any valid points? I'm fully expecting a pullback of 15-30% but that isn't crazy in the scheme of things. Even if we pullback 30% (which is an IF) i'm expecting a good buying opportunity and I also expect the market to swiftly start rising up again after the consolidation just like it did in 08-09 so what's the big deal here?

Now watching these videos he seems to suggest a crash which I think is more like 50-60% which would be crazy.

[Peasy973]

There are some valid points he made. I've been watching Bloomberg constantly since the beginning of the year and there are a number of people who've appeared and talked about the upcoming bear market. My only question about is where do you put your money at now. There's still some steam to this bull market and it maybe on its last legs. Who knows. Is it smart and logical just to wait 18-24 months for it to get bearish? You tell me.

There are a number of indicators people can use to probably time the market but when will those indicators show is the question.

[MrRational]

Originally Posted by Peasy973

My only question about is where do you put your money at now.

First is to distinguish between money that is already INSIDE the equity market vs NEW MONEY
that hasn't been added to those accounts and which is harder and harder to justify just for dividends.

Is it smart and logical just to wait ... for it to get bearish?

There is no immediate day to day need or reason to withdraw what is already INSIDE.

But putting new/additional cash into what is basically a flat equity market?
That is tougher to advise.

There are a number of indicators people can use to probably time the market ...

Nope. Stick to numbers. Figure out what losses YOU can absorb from your gains.

For most current investors their 'value' represents the bull growth of the last few years
and they can afford to absorb some drop in value up to some point. That point varies for all of us.

[ohio_peasant]

My initial impression of Phil Town, upon reading his book, was lukewarm positive. He had thought-provoking ideas, worthy of deeper attention. But the more that I delved into his methods, the more I found them to be wanting. Why? Because, in short, past performance is no guarantee of future returns. It's a captivating story, but not a useful investment-guide. So too, with his various predictions.