U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 06-18-2018, 05:09 PM
DKM
 
Location: Thousand Oaks, CA
2,060 posts, read 671,463 times
Reputation: 2215

Advertisements

So if it never grew at all, then the last 17 years of GDP has been 170 trillion instead of the actual 250 trillion. How was that extra 80 trillion of of GDP only because of debt?

If you're only measuring that our economy is no better based on housing costs, you're still wrong. Maybe in some markets, but not in total in the nation.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 06-18-2018, 08:55 PM
 
Location: Ohio
18,012 posts, read 13,238,246 times
Reputation: 13786
Quote:
Originally Posted by C2BP View Post
Yes, our economy has been dead since 2001 and we used debt or money stolen from the future to simulate economic growth. Our economy couldn't grow organicaly since 2001 so we faked economic growth with debt spending and now we are the most indebted country that ever existed in the world.
Actually, that honor belongs to the Ottoman Empire.

Quote:
Originally Posted by C2BP View Post
We need much higher interest rates and then you will see house prices and rents cut in half or more, healthcare and education cut in half and more, gas prices and everything else cut in half or more.
It won't happen. An increase in interest rates does not result in a reduction in prices.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-18-2018, 09:03 PM
 
4,725 posts, read 2,255,657 times
Reputation: 8739
Quote:
Originally Posted by C2BP View Post
Three basic things in life = shelter, education and healthcare became unaffordable for most Americans. Our housing market turned into a casino game, American homes are investments now used for trading and rent scheme. We have real estate offices open in Hong Kong and other Chinese cities advertising our homes, American homes to foreign nationals. Our fellow citizens are priced out from buying a house and forming a family and competing with various world wide speculators and shysters.
You're typing things that are absolutely false, how can you expect to be taken seriously? Do you know what the word "unaffordable" means? If shelter was unaffordable the average American would be homeless. More Americans than ever have college degrees. Most Americans do have health insurance and receive healthcare, if it was unaffordable hospitals would be empty.

You might as well type in 2+2=5.

Quote:
Originally Posted by C2BP View Post
Wake up people, you all have been played since 2001!!!!
Doing great, thanks for asking!
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-18-2018, 11:34 PM
 
Location: Silicon Valley
2,751 posts, read 1,209,866 times
Reputation: 5052
Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post


Doing great, thanks for asking!
I do like that aspect of the question. Since 2001...Man, I was freaking poor then....but maybe OP has a point.

When I think about it from the debt only perspective, I suppose I am up a ridiculous coefficient. Then it was unsecured crap, now it's low rate mortgages, but the absolute number is certainly up.

Tougher to measure assets. They grew more. I don't think I had many then.

But, if real estate prices and stocks (that existed) were to suddenly reset to their 2001 price points....

Nevermind, still killing it...but that would suck.

One man's debt is another man's asset. If that man happens to be Uncle Sam, payment is guaranteed. Inflation will trump deflation.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-18-2018, 11:42 PM
 
727 posts, read 399,195 times
Reputation: 1081
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
It won't happen. An increase in interest rates does not result in a reduction in prices.
Mircea, my view is that we need to be aware that there is a SPENDING CYCLE (1983-2001, for instance) and a SAVING CYCLE (2001-PRESENT). During the SAVING CYCLE, we raise rates to reward SAVERS and to support the local currency, and to wring out debt from the system.
Implicit in this understanding is that PERPETUAL GROWTH IS A LIE. The economy grows; and then rests. THAT IS A LAW. It is a law in the sense that if we live according to this law, we prosper and survive and become stronger as a civilization. And If we resist this law, we become lawless, without values, and without any concern for anything but our own pleasure - get what I can now for me and mine, to hell with the future. (we have few posters on this forum like this, one is so obvious that I would not mention his name)

The FEEL-GOOD GENERATION is an example of this LAWLESS SOCIETY. And we are now surrounded by the effects of living this way: BUILDING MORE PRISONS, MORE INSANE ASYLUMS, MORE DRUG CLINICS, ALCOHOL REHAB CENTERS, STRIP JOINTS, ENTERTAINMENT CENTERS; PORNOGRAPHY AND PROSTITUTION AND OPIUM ADDICTION BECOMING CENTERPIECES OF ACCEPTED MODERN LIFE, WHERE FUN, ENTERTAINMENT, AND OBLIVION is our true desire.

I think all of this is connected to the unwillingness to discipline ourselves in any way. Discipline is an ugly word today. Discipline is the "end of fun" - a return to a sober and somber lifestyle of limitations, so much a part of the mistakes of the past . Ok. But maybe we need fun to end. The self-indulgent life-style cannot say NO to itself. We need to start saying NO to ourselves. Where and how do we start?
We've painted ourselves into a corner. It seems like the only way we can get out of this corner is by spending MORE money that, in truth, drives us deeper into the corner. The whole world - most of the world - is in this same corner. They must spend more money to avoid the social chaos of revolution. But spending more money is just a delaying tactic, to keep the wolves quiet.

Living believing in the law that ONE CAN HAVE IT ALL is the opposite of living believing that everything that expands also contracts. FOR EVERY INFLATION THERE IS AN EQUAL AND OPPOSITE DEFLATION - and this is a good thing, because to be a compete and a deep society we must develop both our extroverted nature and our introverted nature - that being a part of the law I just defined or outlined.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-19-2018, 01:30 AM
 
64,577 posts, read 66,100,109 times
Reputation: 43002
once you subtract out the low savings rate and consumer debt from gdp , we really do not have a whole lot of gdp growth potential .

we may be looking at 1.50% when all is said and done. that really makes a case for interest rates on bonds already being to high .

many like kessler are forecasting a pretty big drop in bond rates on the near horizon as rates should not even be at this level .

trillions of dollars later and all the qe's and this is the best we can do and even inflation is rather tame from all that .

so don't be surprised if the 30 year bond ends up soaring .and yields fall as much as 30% again .
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-19-2018, 07:26 AM
 
Location: Cebu, Philippines
2,170 posts, read 797,279 times
Reputation: 4348
Quote:
Originally Posted by C2BP View Post

Three basic things in life = shelter, education and healthcare became unaffordable for most Americans.
Not really.

What has changed is that our expectations of those things has outstripped our ability to pay for them. A family can still afford to live in the kind of a house that I grew up in. In the mid-to-late 1900s, most jobs could be learned on the job, without the "need" for a college or even trade school education. When people got sick then, doctors could eyeball the diagnosis, and patients toughed it out until they got well.

We now have the expectation that our masters degree in hospitality services will afford us a full three-car-garage, and live to be 100 without an ache or a pain. Not to mention a family entertainment and information budget that exceeds the food budget, which in the USA is ridiculously low compared to nearly every other country.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-19-2018, 10:33 AM
 
4,725 posts, read 2,255,657 times
Reputation: 8739
Quote:
Originally Posted by cebuan View Post
Not really.

What has changed is that our expectations of those things has outstripped our ability to pay for them.
100% true on expectations.

These days a Honda Civic or Toyota Corolla comes with luxury/safety features that were unheard of a few decades ago except in high end cars. They get close to 40 mpg highway, they are almost maintenance free for years at a time, etc. yet you see people trying to compare apples to oranges by looking at average price of a basic car from 30-40 years ago that needed regular tuneups, had an AM radio, lap belts, no power anything, etc.

Houses from back in the day had way less space, were far less energy efficient, and had fewer features that people take for granted as something expected of a new house today. I forget exact number but average square footage went from something like 1600 sqft to 2400 sqft at peak, I think it's gone down slightly since but not by much.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-19-2018, 10:44 AM
 
1,914 posts, read 1,086,417 times
Reputation: 2042
Quote:
Originally Posted by cebuan View Post
Not really.

What has changed is that our expectations of those things has outstripped our ability to pay for them. A family can still afford to live in the kind of a house that I grew up in. In the mid-to-late 1900s, most jobs could be learned on the job, without the "need" for a college or even trade school education. When people got sick then, doctors could eyeball the diagnosis, and patients toughed it out until they got well.

We now have the expectation that our masters degree in hospitality services will afford us a full three-car-garage, and live to be 100 without an ache or a pain. Not to mention a family entertainment and information budget that exceeds the food budget, which in the USA is ridiculously low compared to nearly every other country.
I reject this common argument. Small houses and even townhouses and condos have become borderline unaffordable in many parts of the country. The house i grew up in, a small 3 br ranch, was purchased for 10k by my Dad in the early 70s. Todays price? Close to 1 million dollars (nice neighborhood, good schools).
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-19-2018, 11:41 AM
 
120 posts, read 89,237 times
Reputation: 293
Quote:
Originally Posted by C2BP View Post

The FEEL-GOOD GENERATION is an example of this LAWLESS SOCIETY. And we are now surrounded by the effects of living this way: BUILDING MORE PRISONS, MORE INSANE ASYLUMS, MORE DRUG CLINICS, ALCOHOL REHAB CENTERS, STRIP JOINTS, ENTERTAINMENT CENTERS; PORNOGRAPHY AND PROSTITUTION AND OPIUM ADDICTION BECOMING CENTERPIECES OF ACCEPTED MODERN LIFE, WHERE FUN, ENTERTAINMENT, AND OBLIVION is our true desire.

I would argue just the opposite. More prisons, clinics, rehab centers, etc are caused by having too many laws. Otr the wrong kinds of laws. We shouldn't be putting people in prison for non violent crimes. But when prison are run by the same corporations that run the government that's what you get.

As for your rantings about porn and prostitution, who the **** cares. It's not your business, or my business, or the governments business what other people do with their bodies.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

2005-2018, Advameg, Inc.

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top