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Old 06-19-2018, 11:43 AM
 
64,674 posts, read 66,183,819 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chops00 View Post
My guess is your angry old white man who doesn't like the way the world is changing. We'll all be better of when the baby boomers die off. They are the ones who have ruined the world.
and this is why these threads are so unproductive
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Old 06-19-2018, 12:14 PM
 
3,546 posts, read 1,995,111 times
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The leverage ratio for the net of this country is off the dangerous precipice... The remaining equity is in the hands of a few wealthy while everyone else is maintaining alone off of debt. Watch when the debt markets contract how the masses will "behave".
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Old 06-19-2018, 12:27 PM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
11,061 posts, read 11,469,953 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
once you subtract out the low savings rate and consumer debt from gdp , we really do not have a whole lot of gdp growth potential .

we may be looking at 1.50% when all is said and done. that really makes a case for interest rates on bonds already being to high .

many like kessler are forecasting a pretty big drop in bond rates on the near horizon as rates should not even be at this level .

trillions of dollars later and all the qe's and this is the best we can do and even inflation is rather tame from all that .

so don't be surprised if the 30 year bond ends up soaring .and yields fall as much as 30% again .
From your lips to Jerome Powell's ear. That would be a very nice bonus for me.
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Old 06-19-2018, 01:32 PM
 
4,543 posts, read 11,551,865 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoonose View Post
How are you doing financially this century?
good.
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Old 06-19-2018, 07:46 PM
 
Location: Ohio
18,030 posts, read 13,251,134 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dysgenic View Post
I reject this common argument. Small houses and even townhouses and condos have become borderline unaffordable in many parts of the country. The house i grew up in, a small 3 br ranch, was purchased for 10k by my Dad in the early 70s. Todays price? Close to 1 million dollars (nice neighborhood, good schools).
That's only in a very few places in the country, less than 10%.

I also grew up in a 3-bedroom ranch, which my family purchased for $15,000 in 1965. It sold in 2005 for $120,000, even though it's only appraised at $98,600.

The average home price in this Metropolitan Statistical Area is only $129,000.

One over-looked reason for high home prices is the fact that the minimum square-footage is now more than 3 times greater than in the past at 4,000+ sq ft versus 1,250 sq ft.

That amount of space is exorbitant and unnecessary, and results in higher prices, since construction costs are higher.
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Old 06-19-2018, 07:49 PM
 
4,735 posts, read 2,263,083 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dysgenic View Post
I reject this common argument. Small houses and even townhouses and condos have become borderline unaffordable in many parts of the country. The house i grew up in, a small 3 br ranch, was purchased for 10k by my Dad in the early 70s. Todays price? Close to 1 million dollars (nice neighborhood, good schools).
Congrats, you've got an outlier and are using it to represent the country.

Go find some data on inflation adjusted median price of a 1600 sq foot house in the early 70s versus a 1600 sq foot house today with comparable features.
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Old 06-19-2018, 08:17 PM
 
8,295 posts, read 3,458,668 times
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Where we live in AZ folks from Cali move here because they sell their house in Cali and get twice the house here for half the price. Literally. All the way back to the mid 1980's. Housing realities and expectations are major lifestyle considerations.
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Old 06-19-2018, 10:34 PM
 
737 posts, read 402,204 times
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Thank you for many positive ratings that I received since yesterday. Yes, America needs higher and higher interest rates. We should have begun raising rates in 2001, slowly and steadily. Since there can be no real economic growth during Night-Cycle -Savings Cycle or Non Growth Cycle there is no point in forcing down interest rates. Well, there is a point. The point is to avoid revolutionary change. To protect the status quo. To keep things from changing.

Lower rates do not spur growth during Night-Cycles (2001- present), lower rates are essentially welfare for the rich, allowing them to extend and pretend before having to face the truth that their company has failed, that their borrowing has become a threat to their survival. Who gets loans; people with collateral. People who own property, and companies, and corporations. Lower and lower interest rates are designed to help them stay alive during the fallow Night-Cycle season; but delaying insolvency does not negate it. We still have a huge Default Season coming, that could have been spread over many years; instead, we have made the problem much worse; and we have condensed the period of desolation, pushing it slightly ahead into the future when someone else will have to assume such responsibility.

The underlying truth is, we are living on borrowed time. We have way too much debt as a global entity - so much debt that we MUST keep interest rates at or close to zero or the whole world will implode. Higher interest rates will bring tsunami of defaults and bankruptcies. We did not do anything since 2001 EXCEPT lie and delay and protect a growing insolvency, to encourage MORE debt instead of less debt. We did almost everything wrong. Why? Because it was politically easy (and rewarding) to do the wrong thing.

The Global Economy died or stopped expanding in 2001- culminated; reached its apex. Began to deflate.

The FED and the central banks tried to 'extend the expansion' and 'pretend' everything was fine for the next 17 years. QE was a disaster. Instead of leading us through this Forest of Deflation, the FED has taken its role to be the protection of financial markets, or 'the wealth effect'. But protecting bad debt is the opposite of regeneration. It becomes the inhibitor of regeneration.

We need regeneration. This comes from facing reality; and from gearing down, tightening our collective belt, and becoming psychologically tough again. We are heading toward a fight. This is the way the world works; it's not always what we would like. Sometimes life is difficult. Sometimes we don't get what we want.
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Old 06-19-2018, 10:50 PM
 
8,295 posts, read 3,458,668 times
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What rate would you suggest for a typical middle class Home mortgage?
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Old 06-19-2018, 11:43 PM
 
737 posts, read 402,204 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoonose View Post
What rate would you suggest for a typical middle class Home mortgage?
What is more important Hoonose, the house price or interest rate? An advantage to buying at a lower home price compared to having a lower interest rate is that your home can be refinanced or modified in the future. It's better to buy when interest rates are higher and house price is lower. Higher interest rates = lower house price. Imagine what would 8%+ interest rates do to the current housing prices......it would cut it in half.
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