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Old 06-22-2018, 06:46 AM
 
6,817 posts, read 4,408,035 times
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The stock market is indeed not the economy, in the sense that movements of the two are not so strongly correlated. But for people who have been saving and investing for decades, whose salary has plateaued (or who have semi-retired), the stock market very much IS their personal economy. A market drop of 30% would be much more devastating than losing one's job and never being employed again. Or having the value of one's house suddenly go to zero.

Oscillations are not to be conflated with sustained trends. Maybe this tariff-thing really is just a temporary spasm. But if the international order of trade, so painstakingly crafted in the mid-20th century, is going to unravel in the 21st, well, I don't know... sounds like a problem, does it not?

If enough people come to convince themselves that the modern world isn't prosperous after all, that instead, it is somehow malignantly perverse and in desperate need of radical revision - well, we're going to have a self-fulfilling prophesy, are we not?
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Old 06-22-2018, 06:50 AM
 
64,532 posts, read 66,100,109 times
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the biggest gains are always before the economy turns the corner and there is any visible change .
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Old 06-22-2018, 08:50 AM
 
13,008 posts, read 12,434,284 times
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The tariffs are a bad idea. There will be an immediate reaction now that will just be a blip, but I believe we will see larger consequences later on down the line when the retaliatory effects are truly felt. Trump is overturning years of accepted economic wisdom. It would be one thing if he had a new rationale, but his reasons are the same old same old and our economy is now such that the negative consequences of a tariff program will be felt even more deeply.

As someone who believes strongly in our need to have a food supply generated within our country, I see the harm this will do farmers as something that will come back to bite us tenfold later down the line.
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Old 06-22-2018, 04:42 PM
 
Location: Ohio
17,998 posts, read 13,238,246 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greywar View Post
The problem with looking at a single stock affected by tariffs is that too many external forces make them noisy. Plus it gives a exaggerated view of just one single affected market rather then the overall market.
Then you can look at a particular sector of economic activity.

There are industry web-sites that already have up-to-date data organized for you, but you'll have to pay a hefty annual subscription fee to access the data, and the fees are usually several $100 a year.

There are industry web-sites that provide free information, but the data is summarized and very general. I always thought it amusing that people could spend hours and hours on porn-sites, but couldn't take 5 minutes to visit a site to see what's happening in their industry, like their manufacturing plant being slated for closing in 6 months. Then, 6 months later when their plant does close, the employees act shocked, like they never saw it coming.

Quote:
Originally Posted by greywar View Post
I do appreciate the discussion of the S&P vs the dow. It seems that the S&p might be better in some ways because it captures a wider swath of the market then the DOW does, but its not clear how much they diverge.
Part of the problem is individual stock-holders are not identified, so you have no way of knowing how much stock is owned by a foreign Central Bank, foreign private bank, foreign corporation or company, or foreign investors.

For example, a private Chinese bank may dump its US stock-holdings related to steel and reinvest them in Chinese steel-related companies, and at the same time, US investors are dumping their Chinese steel-related stocks to reinvest in US steel-related stocks, so they can both reposition themselves to take advantage of the "trade war."

Then multiply that a few a thousand times.

That's what may be happening, but you can never really know for sure, since you can't identify stock-holders. We know it's happened in the past, because certain entities admitted to it long after the fact.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dcfas View Post
No more GE. Instead, add Walgreens.
Great, so now the DOW is even more useless.
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Old 06-25-2018, 12:25 PM
 
Location: Olympus Mons, Mars
5,000 posts, read 8,032,221 times
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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/25/trum...etaliates.html

looks like Trump is causing jobs to ship overseas, the exact thing that he trying to avoid... clearly this joker has no idea how economies work!
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Old 06-25-2018, 12:55 PM
 
95 posts, read 38,891 times
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Some nations who aren't involved in trade wars may benefit from other nations involved in them.

As there's rarely any winners in trade wars - those who remain outside them stand to benefit.
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Old 06-29-2018, 08:33 AM
 
Location: Boston
5,097 posts, read 1,453,831 times
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Trump's a business man with many examples of success. We're the most powerful country in the world, these countries adding tariffs will bend to Trump's wishes, wait and see.
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Old 06-29-2018, 08:38 AM
 
64,532 posts, read 66,100,109 times
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he also had to throw some of his companies in to strategic bankruptcy because he made poor decisions about those business's
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Old 06-29-2018, 10:06 AM
 
Location: Silicon Valley
2,747 posts, read 1,207,954 times
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Trump's a bully that's too easily charmed....but I don't mind him trying. To be honest the Chinese belt initiative was pretty clearly aimed at the heart of the US economy. With the crackdown, the Chinese money coming into Silicon Valley has definitely slowed a bit. The US loses in a trade war, but China loses more.

The reality is the world will play to the US tune, because there isn't another country on the planet that can allow a funds deficit to run the way the US has. Not anywhere close. You want to sell to the world's shopper, you play buy our rules.

China deserved to get slapped. I wish it had been smarter. No doubt the Xi and the commies will remember this longer than our feckless political imagination, but it was time. China will back down because frankly, they'll run out of imports to tax much faster than we will. Don't want our soybeans...fine, go buy Brazil's....but then realize there isn't enough without US beans so you're just artificially killing your own food producers who are now at a disadvantage to importers in other countries.

To me the biggest problem is not doing a better job of containing this to countries that are actual threats. First rule of bullying is to get someone singled out....you don't pick on everyone at the same time.
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Old 06-29-2018, 01:42 PM
 
16,739 posts, read 9,468,766 times
Reputation: 12136
Quote:
Originally Posted by skeddy View Post
Trump's a business man with many examples of success. We're the most powerful country in the world, these countries adding tariffs will bend to Trump's wishes, wait and see.

Back to your cubicle; there's some Ptichye Moloko waiting for you.
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