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Old 06-25-2018, 03:37 PM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
11,039 posts, read 11,450,778 times
Reputation: 17196

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At first glance, trade tariffs are a huge tax increase that will really boost federal revenues. A 25% tariff on Chinese imports would provide over $120 billion a year in additional revenue. That's more than the estimated $1 trillion 10-year additional debt from the Republican tax bill.

It's not clear to me what tariffs will do to US consumer prices. I imagine the Chinese will eat at least part of it, and we can always source consumer goods from S. Korea, Taiwan and Japan. It should be a real boost to the economies of our friends in Asia. Still, consumer prices will escalate, though I doubt it will be a 25% boost. Currency manipulation may bury the effect. That would be great, if we could scoop up an additional $90 billion a year from Chinese trade with no domestic effect.

On the down side, US exports to China would suffer from their retaliation, but we import a lot more from China than they import from us, buying over $500 billion a year and selling only $129 billion. Farm exports seem to be the real victim, but world food demand is relatively inelastic. If the Chinese buys soybeans from Brazil, Brazil's customers will have to buy from the US. Plus, now that Bayer has bought Monsanto, Europe will no longer be closed to US GMO crops. Seeds from EU manufacturers are exempt from that embargo.

It seems to me that taxing trade has some advantages to the US as well as disadvantages. I agree that the rest of the world has been bleeding the US economy, and it needs to end. It seems that the consequences may not be as dire as reported.
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Old 06-26-2018, 02:30 PM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
11,039 posts, read 11,450,778 times
Reputation: 17196
Really? Trump is proposing one of the biggest tax increases in US history, and nobody has any comments? We went All In to free trade as an economic stimulus to developing countries and it worked, but it was very costly for American workers. Maybe it's time to turn off the spigot, and return to more traditional ways of funding the federal budget.
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Old 06-26-2018, 02:37 PM
 
Location: NJ
22,669 posts, read 28,551,950 times
Reputation: 14611
a lot of moving parts. im not sure anyone knows exactly what will happen. is it a certainty that these tariffs will happen? i thought the plan was to threaten tariffs so that other nations will remove their tariffs. i havent really read too much on it.
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Old 06-26-2018, 03:41 PM
 
6,815 posts, read 4,408,035 times
Reputation: 11918
Tariffs are one of the exquisitely rare ideas in economics, which have all downside and zero upside. Nobody benefits - not producers, not consumers, not even middlemen.
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Old 06-26-2018, 04:42 PM
 
2,135 posts, read 1,149,266 times
Reputation: 4368
If we had only focused on China and tried to push a little we'd of probably succeeded on getting some concessions and you could call it a win. Nothing major would change but you could call it.

Pissing off everyone at once and screaming rhetoric all day everyday while placing tariffs on everyone with little thought because "respect mah authoriti" is probably the dumbest thing I've seen done in a long time.

Everyone loses in a trade war
The jobs aren't coming back
Asia is going to drive the world economy of the future
You can expect further focus on Asia because the growth is there not in the has been North America

Times are changing and we are dumb enough to kill ourselves under our own debt as we rush around the world in a desperate attempt to control when in reality the world is moving on without us in a leadership position because dear leader wants to move us back to the 50s.

Some stupid stuff going on right now. Very stupid.
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Old 06-26-2018, 04:46 PM
 
Location: NC
6,081 posts, read 7,023,877 times
Reputation: 12054
First ask WHY did the US help certain industries get developed in other countries. These are industries where the US buys those cheap products for incorporation into US high value products. Often the certain industry is dirty, labor intensive, and has hard to control pollution, so why not have it done in another location where the locals want to do it and produce a raw material more cheaply than we could do on US soil?

Then, we take the raw material, make it into something awesome and use it here or sell it for a strong price around the world. Why then would we slap a high tariff on the raw material? That just makes it more expensive to use in our own US industries and makes all purchasers of that awesome product pay more for it. The only entity making out on the deal, and only in the short run, is the government who collects the tariffs. Yes, it is essentially a tax, one paid by all the buyers of the awesome product.

Which is ok unless you are one of those buyers. And, it provides a great incentive for that other country to learn to make the awesome product themselves and sell if cheaper to the rest of the world.
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Old 06-26-2018, 04:51 PM
 
Location: Prepperland
13,115 posts, read 9,199,435 times
Reputation: 8983
Pursuant to Title 12 USC Sec. 411, the only way to authorize new dollars bills is for Congress to go deeper into debt. But the usury on the debt requires more dollar bills. Hence, it is impossible to balance the budget.
The deficit must go on.

The last time a balanced budget occurred, 1999-2000, it triggered the dot-com bust.

Of course, it's insane.
Blame clause 4, 14th amendment, USCON.
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Old 06-26-2018, 05:35 PM
 
8,277 posts, read 3,452,461 times
Reputation: 1584
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
At first glance, trade tariffs are a huge tax increase that will really boost federal revenues. A 25% tariff on Chinese imports would provide over $120 billion a year in additional revenue. That's more than the estimated $1 trillion 10-year additional debt from the Republican tax bill.

It's not clear to me what tariffs will do to US consumer prices. I imagine the Chinese will eat at least part of it, and we can always source consumer goods from S. Korea, Taiwan and Japan. It should be a real boost to the economies of our friends in Asia. Still, consumer prices will escalate, though I doubt it will be a 25% boost. Currency manipulation may bury the effect. That would be great, if we could scoop up an additional $90 billion a year from Chinese trade with no domestic effect.

On the down side, US exports to China would suffer from their retaliation, but we import a lot more from China than they import from us, buying over $500 billion a year and selling only $129 billion. Farm exports seem to be the real victim, but world food demand is relatively inelastic. If the Chinese buys soybeans from Brazil, Brazil's customers will have to buy from the US. Plus, now that Bayer has bought Monsanto, Europe will no longer be closed to US GMO crops. Seeds from EU manufacturers are exempt from that embargo.

It seems to me that taxing trade has some advantages to the US as well as disadvantages. I agree that the rest of the world has been bleeding the US economy, and it needs to end. It seems that the consequences may not be as dire as reported.
YES on more Federal revenues! And has to be a yes on increased prices for many goods.

Tax cut, then a tax increase.

Like taxing SS benefits. Round and round!

China is in a position 'eat' all of it if their central command/bank so desires.

https://voxeu.org/article/chinas-hid...ding-subsidies
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Old 06-26-2018, 10:00 PM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
11,039 posts, read 11,450,778 times
Reputation: 17196
Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post
Tariffs are one of the exquisitely rare ideas in economics, which have all downside and zero upside. Nobody benefits - not producers, not consumers, not even middlemen.
I agree that tariffs make a mess out of some multinationals. 25% on China would put a real dent in Apple, but it would leave Nike (Vietnam based) untouched. I also agree that there would be little immediate benefit for Joe Schmoe consumer, since toaster ovens and Harbor Fraught tools would cost more.

I do not agree that there is no upside. Free trade has done terrible damage to US workers. Whole industries have left the country, not because they were unprofitable, but because moving offshore was a little more profitable. It looked like a great deal from Wall Street, but not from the floor of an Ohio furniture factory.

If tariffs would bring the jobs back, it will take years. The infrastructure is gone. The factories have been dismantled and auctioned to Mexico. I'm sure there would be great wailing and gnashing of teeth when the bean counters realize the only way to make a profit is to manage their companies for the benefit of Americans. I'm sure there is a profit there; perhaps not as big a profit as there once was, but the massive corporate profits haven't done many people any good.
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Old 06-27-2018, 01:41 AM
 
Location: Cebu, Philippines
2,154 posts, read 795,391 times
Reputation: 4322
Not nearly as much help as Lying, the time-honored method of choice.
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