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Old 06-28-2018, 11:59 AM
 
8,273 posts, read 3,452,461 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LMC White Collar View Post
some have claimed that a key cause of the continuation of the Great Recession was in Bernanke raising rates to quickly.
I don't think Bernanke raised rates during his term.

Federal Funds Rate - 62 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends
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Old 06-29-2018, 02:27 PM
 
Location: Ohio
17,986 posts, read 13,233,625 times
Reputation: 13765
Quote:
Originally Posted by freemkt View Post
Specifically, he sees a crash in commercial and residential real estate as internet sales decimate brick-and-mortar stores, and as baby boomers age (downsize), retire, and die.
Dent is an idiot who is clueless, and only exists because of people like you.

Baby-Boomers will not down-size in one day, or one week or even one month or one year. It will be spread out over a 30-year period from 2020 to 2050.

As Greg Mankiw noted -- and he's a lot more intelligent than Dent ever hopes to be -- the worst case scenario is downward pressure in specific neighborhoods of select housing markets where Boomers are highly concentrated.

There will be no effect country-wide, or even State-wide, and in those housing markets where demand is acute, there won't be any effect at all.

If Dent had bothered to read the latest Census Bureau data, he would have seen that from 1QTR 2017 to 1QTR 2018, internet sales increased from 8.4% of total sales to 9.3% of total sales, which is an increase of only 0.9%.

If you look at the history, internet sales growth peaked some time ago, and growth is very slow now, and it will grow until it plateaus and flat-lines.

If, in 2050, internet sales are 20% of retail sales, it will be a banner day for internet sellers.

Unfortunately, the Census Bureau data uses total sales in Dollars, which is just as misleading as measuring productivity in Dollars. The correct measure is unit volume, in this case, the number of internet sales transactions versus the number of retail store transactions to get a true and accurate picture of what's actually happening.

Those retailers who had poor business models and couldn't handle the internet have already exited the market, or are in the process of closing stores and exiting the market this year.

You won't see another repeat of that for some time, although over the course of then next 30 years, I'm sure you'll see some mostly smaller retailers exiting the market here and there.

So, no, there's not going to be a collapse of the commercial market, either.
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Old 06-30-2018, 06:11 AM
 
4,313 posts, read 5,265,036 times
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Pretty silly predictions. The problem with most housing markets is a massive lack of construction and available labor.

We are looking to buy in Las Vegas and they're so far delayed on custom homes (out of our budget) because there's basically nobody to build them, and the production homes are selling fast at all levels. It's the best year for luxury sales since 2007 I think they were saying. A million dollar home sells every single day roughly in Vegas.
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Old 06-30-2018, 12:18 PM
 
Location: San Diego / NWA
962 posts, read 556,300 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
harry should find a new line of work . his predicting has been the worst as long as i can remember
Yep the way Harry sees it, if he predicts the next fall, long enough, he will eventually be right.
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Old 06-30-2018, 02:55 PM
 
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bill gross has been getting just as bad lol
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Old 06-30-2018, 03:53 PM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
8,949 posts, read 3,114,068 times
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I don't know what to think any longer --- it's been a decade since the last recession, and there are all kinds of warning signs. But we are still near market highs. I don't know if we are going to crash, but the stock market and the RE market are certain to slow down. I've probably been a bit early but now looks like the time to move into defensive stocks - utilities (beaten down significantly), food/beverage, etc.
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Old 06-30-2018, 04:40 PM
 
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Every big downturn happens when markets were breaking new highs. Think about it.

The biggest up swings are from the depths of these downturns when nothing appears to have changed yet to our eyes and it looks like markets have no bottom
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Old 06-30-2018, 05:51 PM
 
Location: midvalley Oregon and Eastside seattle area
2,898 posts, read 1,344,207 times
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Just in case, ...
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Old 06-30-2018, 07:24 PM
 
Location: Ohio
17,986 posts, read 13,233,625 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerGeek40 View Post
I don't know what to think any longer --- it's been a decade since the last recession, and there are all kinds of warning signs. But we are still near market highs.
There's no relationship between the economy and the stock market, and it hasn't been 10 years, it's been 107 months (soon to be 108 months in a couple of days). In July 2019, it will be 10 years. The economy could conceivably continue to expand for another 12 months and even longer, although I personally don't believe it would expand much beyond 120 months.

Recessions are caused by structural unemployment, capital reallocation or liquidity issues.

Structural unemployment will not cause stock prices to collapse, and there's no evidence of structural unemployment, so that won't be the cause of the next recession.

Capital reallocation can cause a drop in stocks, or even a collapse of stock prices, because investors are dumping stocks in those sectors of the economy that are under-performing or have no chance of future expansion and buying up stocks in those sectors of the economy that are performing or which have a future chance of expansion.

The problem is when investors dump their stocks and realize a profit, they don't reinvest that day, or the day after, or the day after that, or even the next week or next month. They talk it up with friends, talk to their financial advisor, talk to other financial consultants, and spend at lot of time reading prospecti and business plans to see where to invest their money, and that takes several months, or longer, if you're a serious investor. If you're Joe McTrader, you probably lost your shirt and the light and space has put the zap on your head.

After investors dumped their stocks in the defense sector and related industries in 1990-1991, it was some time before they decided to reinvest in the tech sector, and a lot of that money ended up in the dot.com sector.

Liquidity issues may or may not result in a collapse of stock prices. It depends on the factors that cause the liquidity issues.

Businesses expand because expansion results in more profits, or a greater profit margin, and when the cost of expansion doesn't permit greater profits or a higher profit margin, then there's no expansion.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, and two more are planned for this year, increase the cost of borrowing for expansion, and when the costs reduce profits or profit margins, then expansion stops. That will be the most likely cause of the next recession, but it doesn't mean stock prices will collapse.
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Old 07-01-2018, 02:29 AM
 
64,514 posts, read 66,075,955 times
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here is a comparison of recessions and markets . the results are pretty mixed but on average stocks fell .



http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2015...er-recessions/

Last edited by mathjak107; 07-01-2018 at 02:54 AM..
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