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Old 06-26-2018, 01:07 PM
 
33,046 posts, read 20,708,082 times
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Specifically, he sees a crash in commercial and residential real estate as internet sales decimate brick-and-mortar stores, and as baby boomers age (downsize), retire, and die.

I get emails from him - he's been predicting a big RE downturn for a few years, but it was always several years out, as opposed to around the corner. The other day I got a pop-up notification with his latest, saying home prices could fall 50% soon - no longer several years out. (Didn't click on it fast enough to read the details.)

I don't see that happening, but with interest rates rising and student loan debt hindering millennials,. buyer liquidity could be an issue.

What do you think?

p.s. He recently said that Manhattan RE sales are down 40% over the past year; that's a scary number. Any observations of predictions from out NYC folks?
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Old 06-26-2018, 01:41 PM
 
95 posts, read 38,891 times
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some have claimed that a key cause of the continuation of the Great Recession was in Bernanke raising rates to quickly.
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Old 06-26-2018, 02:18 PM
 
64,530 posts, read 66,075,955 times
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harry should find a new line of work . his predicting has been the worst as long as i can remember
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Old 06-26-2018, 02:24 PM
 
64,530 posts, read 66,075,955 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by freemkt View Post
Specifically, he sees a crash in commercial and residential real estate as internet sales decimate brick-and-mortar stores, and as baby boomers age (downsize), retire, and die.

I get emails from him - he's been predicting a big RE downturn for a few years, but it was always several years out, as opposed to around the corner. The other day I got a pop-up notification with his latest, saying home prices could fall 50% soon - no longer several years out. (Didn't click on it fast enough to read the details.)

I don't see that happening, but with interest rates rising and student loan debt hindering millennials,. buyer liquidity could be an issue.

What do you think?

p.s. He recently said that Manhattan RE sales are down 40% over the past year; that's a scary number. Any observations of predictions from out NYC folks?
the first quarter of 2018 was weak . this quarter is much stronger and june sales have been the best since 2006 in the luxury end .
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Old 06-26-2018, 03:54 PM
 
3,962 posts, read 1,590,532 times
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It's a loopy prediction. As opposed to 2006 and 2007 when home prices spiraled up due to speculation and nonexistent mortgage underwriting, residential real estate prices are moving up now because there isn't sufficient inventory. There was a huge shakeout in builders during the Great Recession and Dodd-Frank made it really tough for spec builders to borrow. The result? Fewer homes being built to house a growing population.

As far as the commercial market is concerned, it really depends on which sector you talk about. For example, retail was waaaaayyyy overbuilt, even if Amazon had never come along. So any idiot could have predicted the collapse of the retail market. At the same time, the industrial sector simply cannot keep up in terms of demand for space, particularly in areas such as the Southeast. Office will be pretty stable, even with more home officing.

Last edited by MinivanDriver; 06-26-2018 at 04:27 PM..
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Old 06-26-2018, 08:30 PM
JRR
 
Location: Algood/Cookeville TN
3,123 posts, read 1,890,444 times
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Just my opinion, but to me Harry Dent is like a scraggly haired guy in the park hollering about the end of the world to anyone going by who will listen. He has been doing this for quite a while, but he does still seems to have a following.
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Old 06-26-2018, 08:58 PM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
5,476 posts, read 1,651,715 times
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Harry Dent has been saying the sky was about to fall for, like, 10 years now. Maybe 20.
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Old 06-26-2018, 09:02 PM
 
Location: Carmichael, CA
1,933 posts, read 2,726,978 times
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I went to a seminar to listen to Harry Dent once. He was predicting that the stock market would hit 30,000 and that everyone should put their money into dot com stocks.

This was about 6 months before the dot com crash. I haven't paid attention to him since.
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Old 06-27-2018, 01:05 PM
 
2,240 posts, read 1,385,700 times
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Are you going to buy a house in the coming real estate crash?
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Old 06-28-2018, 02:04 AM
 
33,046 posts, read 20,708,082 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
Are you going to buy a house in the coming real estate crash?

Only if I can get the right terms (little or nothing down) and price - something I consider unrealistic even in a crash.

The irony is that as home prices crash, the rental market gets tighter and more expensive.
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