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View Poll Results: Don't vote right away, but what do you think is the main correlating factor for home price changes?
Job Creation 16 27.59%
Change in Population 15 25.86%
Loan Availability 6 10.34%
Land/Building Scarcity 20 34.48%
Environmental Factors 0 0%
Land Rights 1 1.72%
Voters: 58. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-07-2018, 08:26 PM
Location: midvalley Oregon and Eastside seattle area
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A lot of factors fell apart in 2007 and didn't come together again until 2012. started to come together beginning in 2012 and has accelerated.
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Old 07-07-2018, 08:46 PM
Location: Florida -
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How people feel about the economy and their own job security is probably the greatest overall housing market driver. Beyond that, local market drivers vary widely across the U.S.. Florida, for example (like Arizona, Nevada, Colorado and other) housing markets are more heavily dependent on warm weather, beaches, mountains and geographic factors. Other states are more dependent on new job creation or manufacturing or construction growth trends.

Within local markets, good schools, local amenities or other 'environmental' factors may influence some moves, but, people are less likely to move exclusively because of these considerations.
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Old 07-07-2018, 09:57 PM
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High demand with lack of supply in a low unemployment and credit availiable environment has been ideal for home appreciation.
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Old 07-08-2018, 12:59 AM
Location: Ohio
18,045 posts, read 13,258,699 times
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Originally Posted by artillery77 View Post
Why are prices so low in Detroit, and so high in San Francisco?
Supply & Demand.

Supply is very high in Detroit, while Demand is simultaneously low.

The exact opposite is true for San Fransisco. The Supply is very low, while the Demand is extremely high.

For any product or service, there is a base price, which is the cost to produce the product or provide the service. That price is modified by the Price Elasticity of the product or service. Some products and services are highly elastic, because people don't really need them, or because there are myriad alternatives and substitutes. Other products and services are highly inelastic, like medical services. I'm sure there's a Useless Tube video on how to remove your own appendix or tonsils, but you probably wouldn't want to do that. Housing is inelastic. There aren't many substitutes or alternatives for housing. Some products or services are inelastic in the short-term, but elastic over the long-term. Gasoline is like that. People will pay $4.00/gallon for gasoline over the short-term, but after a certain point, they'll starting seeking alternatives like car-pooling, combining trips, reducing or eliminating trips, or using mass transit, if available.

The final arbiter is the Market itself. What exactly are people really willing to pay for your product or service?

One time, the group Yes came to town, but none of my friends or I could get out of school or off work to camp out for tickets, which only cost $7.50, and which sold out before the end of the day. We went anyway, and when the ticket scalper said $50, I said, "Yes", because that's how badly I wanted to see the show. Not everyone was willing to pay $50, yet there were also some who would pay even more than that.

That's what the Market is about.

So long as people are willing to pay $2,295/month for a studio/efficiency apartment in San Fransisco, then that's what the Market will bear.

Even if no one was willing to pay that, it doesn't guarantee the price will decrease.

Case in point, the vacancy rate around the University of Cincinnati runs in the 70% range, meaning about 1 in 4 apartments stand vacant for months on end. The problem is not the rent, which ranges from $375/month to $450/month, it's the parking. Most of the neighborhoods are pre-WW I, so there's no driveway or off-street parking, and some streets don't allow parking, and the ones that do only allow you to park on one side of the street. That means you have to spend 5 to 15 minutes hunting for a parking space that is 2 to 5 blocks from your apartment, and a lot of women don't like that, especially if they have to walk at night.

These are nearly all private landlords who typically own the buildings out-right, with no mortgage, so it's chump change that finances their kids' education or their retirement or vacation, and they don't really care if a unit is vacant 6 to 12 months, and the won't rent it at a lower rate, because in the end, there's always someone who'll come along and rent it.

The problem with dense urban areas is that demand will always grow at a rate faster than supply can be increased, and there are spatial geographic issues, meaning once the area is saturated, there's no further expansion, and the only expansion that would be possible is to tear down existing multi-family units and replace them with larger multi-family units, like replacing a four-story dwelling with a 20-story dwelling, but even that would never reach a level sufficient to meet demand.
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Old 07-08-2018, 06:14 AM
Location: Boston
5,097 posts, read 1,462,732 times
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location. that was easy
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Old 07-08-2018, 07:59 AM
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I’m surprised some of the bigger cities don’t have companies experimenting with alternate schedules. Imagine night owls like me are all allowed to work an alternative shift from 8 pm to 5 am or something like that, avoid all traffic, and conform to our own sleep schedules. So much work doesn’t have any reason to be done during “the day” at all. I own my company and told my editor the same thing, just do the work and do it well, I don’t care if you want to do it at 9 am or 9 pm. More work from home, more flexible scheduling and you could squeeze a better quality of life out of the same cities that have become too crowded.
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Old 07-08-2018, 08:27 AM
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It is all of those factors to some extent. But scarcity of land would be the biggest factor. Its the value of the lot that is increasing not the house that is sitting on it. Scarcity of vacant land in an area people want to live drives prices.

If half the land area in coastal California was still undeveloped housing prices would be much lower. I grew up in Los Angeles and it was around the late 70's early 80's when almost all the available land had been developed that prices started rising quickly. That is when new subdivisions were pushing out to the antelope valley.
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Old 07-08-2018, 12:23 PM
Location: Copenhagen, Denmark
9,871 posts, read 8,019,083 times
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The local housing market and interest rates. Hold the housing market constant, and the sale price is a function of its "characteristics', including location, external environmental amenities (good and bad), and house specific characteristics (size, nr. of rooms of different types, age, etc.).
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Old 07-08-2018, 04:26 PM
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The question is "what do you think is the main correlating factor for home price changes?".

In any local suburban market, it's largely school quality and commute time. The houses in those towns tend to be in short supply so the price there goes up faster than the rest of the market. They also tend to be more stable in a real estate correction. Socioeconomic segregation. The American way.

Urban markets tend to not care about the school system. For affluent people, it tends to be people with no children who flee to the suburbs the moment they reproduce. Prices rise in the parts of the city where people want to live. That's usually some blend of safety, "things to do", and public transportation access/job access.
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Old 07-08-2018, 06:41 PM
Location: Saint John, IN
10,643 posts, read 3,324,377 times
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Originally Posted by rational1 View Post
You haven't included

School quality
Economic and educational attainment of neighbors
Nearby cultural and educational institutions

could probably think of many more...

In our area (38 miles form downtown Chicago) homes are selling within a few days and there's lack of inventory. Due to that home prices have surged significantly in the last year and continue to rise.
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