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View Poll Results: Don't vote right away, but what do you think is the main correlating factor for home price changes?
Job Creation 16 27.59%
Change in Population 15 25.86%
Loan Availability 6 10.34%
Land/Building Scarcity 20 34.48%
Environmental Factors 0 0%
Land Rights 1 1.72%
Voters: 58. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-11-2018, 04:50 AM
 
Location: Washington State
15,355 posts, read 8,025,596 times
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Supply verses demand.

Supply is based on the availability of desirable land and restrictions on development.

Demand is based on availability of jobs, beauty, climate, infrastructure, schools, crime.
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Old 07-11-2018, 07:09 AM
 
Location: Raleigh
6,965 posts, read 5,187,171 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
This is the United States, not China.

County and city ordinances, or State laws, and HOAs bar people from renting out garages or storage sheds.

There's also maximum occupancy rates for each type of rented dwelling, so it isn't possible for 19 people to live in a 2-bedroom. Not only is the landlord obligated to evict, the landlord would be civilly liable for deaths and injuries in the even of fire, flood, tornado, earthquake or should the building or floor collapse in the event of structural failure.

Regarding your poll, Job Creation and Change in Population are functions of Supply & Demand, and thus cause Scarcity or the lack thereof in the housing market.
Well, sort of...

Its not at the level of what you see in China, but especially in really expensive areas, you see Garages converted (or not really converted, just rented out,) people renting their living rooms and dividing the living room in half to get two more people in there, people renting walk in closets, etc...

I hunted in North Dakota, after the oil boom had cooled, and stayed in a bunk house. It didn't serve many hunters, I was one of a few she'd have all year. But she did charge Beacoup $$$ when oil was going crazy. Literally, a twin bed in a cell-sized room. Shared showes. The building had once been a Dr's office.
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Old 07-11-2018, 06:21 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
5,242 posts, read 3,395,295 times
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As others have said, it's all of those factors.

I live in a place where there is limited job availability but is a trendy place to live. The median home value is about $350k but the median sale price was $449k last month. That should tell you who's moving here.

Supply/demand is the heart of it. I'm from Texas where there is unlimited available, build-able land. The metro areas have the belt roads growing like tree rings to prove it. That doesn't improve the supply in the existing "nice" parts of the cities so prices go up there... but the general home price will reduce down as far as you want to drive your car at the end of the day. About 70 minutes one-way seems to be the maximum people will tolerate on a regular basis.
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Old 07-12-2018, 12:39 AM
 
Location: Honolulu, HI
4,569 posts, read 1,141,729 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler View Post
Supply verses demand.

Supply is based on the availability of desirable land and restrictions on development.

Demand is based on availability of jobs, beauty, climate, infrastructure, schools, crime.
Good post and agreed. Commute time to the city (or job location) is also another demand.
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Old 07-13-2018, 10:43 AM
 
2,360 posts, read 1,027,668 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
As others have said, it's all of those factors.

I live in a place where there is limited job availability but is a trendy place to live. The median home value is about $350k but the median sale price was $449k last month. That should tell you who's moving here.

Supply/demand is the heart of it. I'm from Texas where there is unlimited available, build-able land. The metro areas have the belt roads growing like tree rings to prove it. That doesn't improve the supply in the existing "nice" parts of the cities so prices go up there... but the general home price will reduce down as far as you want to drive your car at the end of the day. About 70 minutes one-way seems to be the maximum people will tolerate on a regular basis.
Yep 45 one way for me to save 700 a month in rent for same exact SQ and trailer. $700+.

I know austin tax rates are stupid high but not enough to call for nearly 1k in difference pricing for same type of units/housing.
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Old 07-13-2018, 06:23 PM
 
Location: Ohio
17,998 posts, read 13,238,246 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by artillery77 View Post
It is undoubtedly multi-factorial,...
No, there's only one factor: Supply & Demand.

The factors that influence Demand are irrelevant, unless your desired goal is to either increase or reduce Demand.

Within an urban area, there are neighborhoods that are more desirable than others, and as a result, the Demand for that housing is higher in those neighborhoods than in others. The factors that cause higher Demand in those neighborhoods are irrelevant, unless your goal is to create the same factors in neighborhoods with lower Demand and make changes or improvements to increase desirability and thereby increase Demand. That would be important if a county or city wanted to generate more property tax revenues. At that point, the issue becomes how much does it costs to make those improvements or changes, and will the increase in property taxes offset those costs. And if the increase in property taxes will offset the costs, when will that happen, in 1-5 years? Or will it take 30 years?

I point that out, because that's why many counties and cities will let areas fester in their own funk. It's cheaper for them to let the Free Market work -- let the property values collapse to a point where a private developer will buy up those properties and either refurbish the existing housing, or tear it all down and build new housing.
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Old 07-13-2018, 08:25 PM
 
Location: Holly Neighborhood, AUSTINtx
3,455 posts, read 5,090,963 times
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So "land rights" was one of the options but a better one would have been "land regulations."

If you want to consider a fast growing dynamic city anywhere in the US and you will see less than half of the developable land put to its highest and best use. Yes, many of the rules are good, but many are unitemized lines on a bill of sale that the buyer will have no choice but to pay and do little for the community.
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Old 07-14-2018, 12:51 PM
 
Location: Silicon Valley
2,747 posts, read 1,209,866 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by verybadgnome View Post
So "land rights" was one of the options but a better one would have been "land regulations."

If you want to consider a fast growing dynamic city anywhere in the US and you will see less than half of the developable land put to its highest and best use. Yes, many of the rules are good, but many are unitemized lines on a bill of sale that the buyer will have no choice but to pay and do little for the community.
It's broader. American thoughts were instances of trailer parks, where the home is used, it's functional for living, but the homeowner has no rights to the land. On an Native American Reservation, you may not have legal right to the land. In China, all land is leased from the government. In Africa, there's lots of traditional ownership but large areas where most do not have legal right to their land. Around the world, some areas do not consider land rights as strongly as in the US.

There's also rights to water or for different uses.
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Old 07-14-2018, 12:59 PM
 
Location: Silicon Valley
2,747 posts, read 1,209,866 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
No, there's only one factor: Supply & Demand.

The factors that influence Demand are irrelevant, unless your desired goal is to either increase or reduce Demand.

Within an urban area, there are neighborhoods that are more desirable than others, and as a result, the Demand for that housing is higher in those neighborhoods than in others. The factors that cause higher Demand in those neighborhoods are irrelevant, unless your goal is to create the same factors in neighborhoods with lower Demand and make changes or improvements to increase desirability and thereby increase Demand. That would be important if a county or city wanted to generate more property tax revenues. At that point, the issue becomes how much does it costs to make those improvements or changes, and will the increase in property taxes offset those costs. And if the increase in property taxes will offset the costs, when will that happen, in 1-5 years? Or will it take 30 years?

I point that out, because that's why many counties and cities will let areas fester in their own funk. It's cheaper for them to let the Free Market work -- let the property values collapse to a point where a private developer will buy up those properties and either refurbish the existing housing, or tear it all down and build new housing.
To my credit, that was the fundamental question.

Price = where supply meets demand. This is an econ forum. A few have decided they are geniuses and walked off after concluding the given, but the question is what will affect price the most? In any given neighborhood, would everyone having a baby increase the price, would a requirement that all homes must be built with a roof that can hold solar panels, would having Amazon's 2nd HQ open up within driving distance.

Most positives have a counteracting negative. If I build a nice park, I reduce the number of home sites and increase property taxes...for example.

I did make the question to broad though, but would welcome some insights
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Old 07-16-2018, 06:28 PM
 
2,360 posts, read 1,027,668 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by artillery77 View Post
It's broader. American thoughts were instances of trailer parks, where the home is used, it's functional for living, but the homeowner has no rights to the land. On an Native American Reservation, you may not have legal right to the land. In China, all land is leased from the government. In Africa, there's lots of traditional ownership but large areas where most do not have legal right to their land. Around the world, some areas do not consider land rights as strongly as in the US.

There's also rights to water or for different uses.
Yea in place were you have cattle ranches, they pay for water rights. I remember my grand father would always say, if you ever get a home or a trailer. Always get the land deed and mineral rights. Because with out those, some bottle water company can come in and drill your well and sell it out under you. So got to cover the ground and what is in it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mineral_rights
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