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Old 07-24-2018, 06:44 PM
 
4,834 posts, read 2,300,111 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by C2BP View Post
GDP is a worthless number, scam designed to trick American Public.
When the common measure for economic growth shoots a massive hole in your pet economic theories... simply discount that measure.
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Old 07-25-2018, 02:05 AM
 
641 posts, read 562,237 times
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My rule of thumb: Take good government statistics, divide by 2. Take bad government statistics, and multiply by 2.

Judging by this, real US GDP growth is 1.45%. Not horrible, but not fabulous either.
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Old 07-25-2018, 09:24 AM
 
8,928 posts, read 2,463,012 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
Why wouldn't it? You don't think the millions of Americans who put bread on the table working in the healthcare or energy sectors count as part of the economy?

Does infant mortality or average lifespan really measure the happiness of a people? I get that a mother who's infant dies in childbirth is sad, but in a country of hundreds of millions of people
Uh, obviously you enjoy writing, but less so understanding.....

In the first case - there is no measurable increase in the energy sectors - let alone enough to make 300+ million people better off.

And, yes, in the real world infant and child morality and lifespan is a major indication of health AND happiness.

The "healthcare workers" don't make the excess profits - some vast corporation does. Do you really think the pay of (for example) home health care workers has increased? They are usually "contractors" and lucky to get much over minimum wage when (lack of) benefits are figured in.

I guess we will agree to disagree. You think Corporations are People. I don't. Even if one thinks Corporations are people, the DOW is up about 2% this entire YTD....and that does not take inflation and all the other stuff into account.

There is no scenario where that is "great" or "fantastic". I've been working and investing for 45 years or so - and "great" is 20% a year (Buffet average and many mutual fund returns in good years). "Decent" is about 12% in the stock markets.

We could say that things have been "decent" for the past 6 years...but that's about as far as I could go - even then, they are less "decent" for the bottom 50%, which are the "forgotten people" that this admin said they would focus on. Quite a joke.
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Old 07-25-2018, 09:55 AM
 
875 posts, read 650,522 times
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I also have to agree with the notion that GDP is a worthless number. A good example of this is the Santee Cooper nuclear power plant. Billions was spend on site prep, development, permitting, legal battles, feasibility studies, environmental impact studies, etc. Ultimately the project was cancelled and not a single megawatt of energy will ever be produced. Millions more will be spend on the legal battle to determine who pays for the fiasco. Despite the massive boost to GDP from all this spending, no economic benefit was ever realized.

On the other hand, somewhere in America a rooftop solar panel was installed at a cost of $20k. Although the GDP impact of this is negligible, it will produce more energy and provide more economic benefit than the billions above.
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Old 07-25-2018, 11:21 AM
 
4,834 posts, read 2,300,111 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
In the first case - there is no measurable increase in the energy sectors - let alone enough to make 300+ million people better off
Yet there you are complaining about energy and health sectors being included in GDP growth. GDP measures goods and services produced in a country, when you see someone trying to pick and choose which of those services should be included in that growth they don't understand the point of it or are trying to twist facts.


Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
And, yes, in the real world infant and child morality and lifespan is a major indication of health AND happiness.
You already said that. I cast doubt on it. Saying it again doesn't make your case stronger. I submit a very tiny fraction of Americans are impacted in their day to day lives by USA infant mortality rate or a tenth of a percentage change in average lifespan, therefore it isn't a major driver in happiness. If it is such a major factor explain Japan. Highest lifespan on earth, one of the lowest infant mortality rates, yet consistently rated as low happiness with high suicide rates. Reason = there are factors in day to day life that are far more significant when measuring happiness of a society.


Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
The "healthcare workers" don't make the excess profits - some vast corporation does.
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
You think Corporations are People.
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
the DOW is up about 2% this entire YTD....and that does not take inflation and all the other stuff into account.
Tell Mr. Strawman that everyone here on the forum says hello.
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Old 07-25-2018, 06:06 PM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
11,115 posts, read 11,528,578 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
Yet there you are complaining about energy and health sectors being included in GDP growth. GDP measures goods and services produced in a country, when you see someone trying to pick and choose which of those services should be included in that growth they don't understand the point of it or are trying to twist facts.

You already said that. I cast doubt on it. Saying it again doesn't make your case stronger. I submit a very tiny fraction of Americans are impacted in their day to day lives by USA infant mortality rate or a tenth of a percentage change in average lifespan, therefore it isn't a major driver in happiness. If it is such a major factor explain Japan. Highest lifespan on earth, one of the lowest infant mortality rates, yet consistently rated as low happiness with high suicide rates. Reason = there are factors in day to day life that are far more significant when measuring happiness of a society.

Tell Mr. Strawman that everyone here on the forum says hello.
Yet when I pointed out that 80% of all workers saw no income growth at all in 2017 and 50% saw an income decline, you called me a liar. Then you turn around and start talking about Japan, not about the US. It's a classic misdirection. If you want to disrupt the conversation, start talking about something else.

If you want to examine the general welfare (a basic reason a government exists, according to the US Constitution), you have to abandon the GDP as a relevant measure and look at other metrics.

One measure of growth is the number of homeless, which grew 1% in 2017. Lest you accuse me of making up numbers again, here is your link.

https://www.usnews.com/news/us/artic...the-west-coast

Let's talk about wellness. You discount the dying babies that are an indictment of the US health care system, but let's talk about paying the bills.

Quote:
States Where Health Exchange Premiums Are Increasing. In the week before the 2018 open enrollment period began, an independent health policy report explained the state of premiums on the health exchanges created by the ACA/Obamacare. The new analysis from Avalere of filings from the 40 Healthcare.gov states," shows exchange premiums for the most widespread type of exchange plan (silver level) will be 34 percent higher, on average, compared to last year's 25 percent." These averages omit the 10 states that run their own exchanges and sometimes outpace the federally run versions.
Health Insurance: Premiums and Increases

Average silver plan premiums range from $486/month in ND to $1187/month in Wyoming. Many people just don't have the money. How happy do you think that makes them?

It is almost trivial to find multiple metrics that show the US is not doing very well for its citizens. A rising GDP is a comforting thing for the wealthy, but we all know market economies are not stable. When it quits rising, we will be back to mass unemployment, year and a half federally subsidized unemployment benefits, and ubiquitous debt default.
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Old 07-26-2018, 09:37 PM
 
4,834 posts, read 2,300,111 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
Yet when I pointed out that 80% of all workers saw no income growth at all in 2017 and 50% saw an income decline, you called me a liar. Then you turn around and start talking about Japan, not about the US. It's a classic misdirection. If you want to disrupt the conversation, start talking about something else.
You're suffering memory issues and confusion.

1. That was in a completely different thread, on a different subject, and addressing someone else. THat would not be misdirection.

2. When you made that statement I asked for a source since you have a history of funny with facts. You couldn't provide one other than telling me to go read some print magazine.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
If you want to examine the general welfare (a basic reason a government exists, according to the US Constitution), you have to abandon the GDP as a relevant measure and look at other metrics.

One measure of growth is the number of homeless, which grew 1% in 2017. Lest you accuse me of making up numbers again, here is your link.

https://www.usnews.com/news/us/artic...the-west-coast
What exactly do you think an article saying the homeless count has risen for the first time since 2010 proves? If you're considering growth to be an indicator of poor general welfare, can we assume the other seven years where there wasn't growth to be even more indicators of good general welfare? I wouldn't, but since you're the one trying to use this statistic to make a point I'll let you ponder on that one for a bit.

In fact you can also ponder on how growing for the first time in 2010 only 1% looks compared to change in US population over that same time.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
Let's talk about wellness. You discount the dying babies that are an indictment of the US health care system, but let's talk about paying the bills.

Health Insurance: Premiums and Increases

Average silver plan premiums range from $486/month in ND to $1187/month in Wyoming. Many people just don't have the money. How happy do you think that makes them?
I sure wouldn't be happy paying that much, but you have yet another poor example as the overwhelming majority of people on Silver Plans are on subsidies so don't pay anywhere near the full premiums. I think it was over 80% a couple years ago.

I get your point though, healthcare costs are definitely something negative about living in USA.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
It is almost trivial to find multiple metrics that show the US is not doing very well for its citizens. A rising GDP is a comforting thing for the wealthy, but we all know market economies are not stable. When it quits rising, we will be back to mass unemployment, year and a half federally subsidized unemployment benefits, and ubiquitous debt default.
It is equally trivial to find multiple metrics showing the opposite, it's cute you think up anything negative somehow builds a compelling case that US is not doing well for it's citizens. I wonder if you would have been in here last year shouting that hey homeless hasn't risen in 7 years despite the population continuing to grow. WOW! US is doing very well for it's citizens.

You're also way off on GDP. A rising GDP impacts many other things, including employment. Far more people are impacted by whether they can find work than a 1% increase in homeless population after seven years straight without one.
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Old 07-27-2018, 08:23 AM
 
6,851 posts, read 4,444,043 times
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No single number is going to be sufficiently meaningful as to capture all aspects of economic vitality. And even if we concocted a magic passel of numbers that in aggregate described exactly what the economy is doing, this need not correlate with "happiness". Nevertheless, year after year of sprightly rising GDP, vs. year after year of stagnation, does say something about national prosperity. Compare for example the past 50 years in South Korea vs. North Korea. And that does, I think, carry some relation to happiness and life satisfaction.

The curious thing about Anglo-American civic ethos, is the extolling of individualism, and what that means for profits and prosperity. Individualistic societies tend to foster both higher growth and higher concentration of growth. Is this a worhwhile trade-off? If I become twice as affluent, but my neighbor becomes four times as affluent, in relative terns I grow poorer. Would in begrudging my neighbors I feel better if we all remained equally poor? This is not a merely theoretical question.

As for whether GDP is itself a phony measure of even just strictly economic growth (recall the bromide about paying people to dig ditches, only to refill them), I recommend looking at productivity growth rate. If this rate is increasing, or at least stable, then increase in GDP is indeed meaningful. If productivity growth rate is declining, then a rising GDP, while still welcome, becomes suspect.
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Old 07-31-2018, 01:25 AM
 
24,780 posts, read 26,906,180 times
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It's coming at the expense of high government deficits. We just keep kicking that can down the road. We're going to hit a wall at some point.
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Old 07-31-2018, 01:28 AM
 
24,780 posts, read 26,906,180 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
Are those inflation adjusted numbers?
Yes, GDP growth is always stated in inflation adjusted terms.

Last edited by mysticaltyger; 07-31-2018 at 01:42 AM..
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