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Old 08-07-2018, 10:55 AM
 
Location: California
1,134 posts, read 962,190 times
Reputation: 2056

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Counterpoint

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ffers-slowdown
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Old 08-07-2018, 11:09 AM
 
Location: Silicon Valley
2,759 posts, read 1,211,909 times
Reputation: 5077
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
I believe we were arguing somewhere between intractably and pointlessly about this a few months ago.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/05/t...kplace-ai.html

Anyone who still believes the lower third of traditional white-collar desk jobs are secure in the hands of human employees, and not on the verge of being replaced by simple AI - and to forestall the stupider arguments, I emphasize simple - is simply denying that the waves that wiped out whole job categories in heavy industry, then warehousing and manufacturing are breaking yet higher.

I predict, with a greatly conservative take, that the impacts of "office drone" AI will be painfully sharp within five years. The employment in junior accountants, actuaries, order processing, similar repetitive/low judgment positions, and increasing areas of customer support, will fall like dominoes.

But hey, they can all go teach yoga or give pedicures or arrange flowers or something, right?
What's a junior accountant? Is that the old school human adding machine with the green visor that I've only seen in movies? Computers have been eliminating those roles for decades.

But please tell me the first places that go completely automated. I will rob them blind.
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Old 08-07-2018, 11:19 AM
Status: "delete" (set 22 days ago)
 
3,189 posts, read 1,275,587 times
Reputation: 2351
Quote:
Originally Posted by artillery77 View Post
What's a junior accountant? Is that the old school human adding machine with the green visor that I've only seen in movies? Computers have been eliminating those roles for decades.

But please tell me the first places that go completely automated. I will rob them blind.
Ah, the good old fashioned smash and grab!





Now, I'm with you, but I don't think you've been keeping up with the latest projects geared towards target identification.

"Project Maven focuses on computer vision -- an aspect of machine learning and deep learning -- that autonomously extracts objects of interest from moving or still imagery, Cukor said. Biologically inspired neural networks are used in this process, and deep learning is defined as applying such neural networks to learning tasks."

This ain't the 1950's anymore.





“Unmanned systems equipped with FLA algorithms need no remote pilot, no GPS guidance, no communications link, and no pre-programmed map of the area – the onboard software, lightweight processor, and low-cost sensors do all the work autonomously in real-time.”



“FLA’s algorithms could lead to effective human-machine teams on the battlefield, where a small air or ground vehicle might serve as a scout autonomously searching unknown environments and bringing back useful reconnaissance information to a human team member. Without needing communications links to the launch vehicle, the chances of an adversary detecting troop presence based on radio transmissions is reduced, which adds further security and safety,” Ledé said.

Lol at "human-machine" teams. No humans need apply.

Last edited by Jobster; 08-07-2018 at 11:32 AM..
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Old 08-07-2018, 11:39 AM
Status: "delete" (set 22 days ago)
 
3,189 posts, read 1,275,587 times
Reputation: 2351


Lol at Darpa having its own video channel.



Wouldn't be complete without the lil dog buddy.



Go ahead and smash and grab. Even thieven ain't what it used to be. Shoot, maybe they'll send these guys to go collect college student loans, cuz even theft ain't what it used to be.

Lol.
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Old 08-07-2018, 11:54 AM
 
394 posts, read 245,014 times
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Jobster, Boston Dynamics has done some interesting things, and I do believe changes are coming. I'm just not convinced it will be in 5 years, I think it's more of a 15-20 year time-frame.

Good luck to all of us, we will need it, Rg
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Old 08-07-2018, 12:03 PM
Status: "delete" (set 22 days ago)
 
3,189 posts, read 1,275,587 times
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The irony is that perhaps the greatest technological innovations have and will be paid for with tax payer funded money as opposed to that invisible hand nonsense. Furthermore, the technology paid for by its population will be used against its population.
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Old 08-07-2018, 12:04 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
20,968 posts, read 15,285,903 times
Reputation: 23757
You can't compare Excel to sophisticated AI.

Excel is a tool - not really different than a wheel, or using a tractor to plow instead of horses or oxen. Previously, five data analysts may have been required to do what one person can do with Excel. Excel isn't going to make an arithmetical error, and tasks that may have taken hours of time for multiple personnel can be done in short order by one.

However, Excel still requires an operator and someone to feed it information. Additional jobs in IT support, training, etc., have been generated around that software.

Take a look at self-service kiosks at fast food restaurants. Right now, those jobs may be wiping out cashier positions, but new positions to design/service/install/maintain the kiosks are being generated. Let's say the kiosk has a code error and requires someone to reboot it. You may have to dispatch a technician to service the device. Still, the aggregate effect is probably a net loss of overall jobs. Ten or twenty years in the future, that kiosk may have the capability to create its own code faults, and essentially be "auto-repairing." That could eliminate a lot of the technician positions, even engineering.

What if you're looking at AI that has the ability to improve/maintain itself, or dispatch another machine to repair something that was damaged? You will need substantially less of the human component.

People have never had to compete with something that potentially had the capacity to "learn," optimize itself, etc.
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Old 08-07-2018, 12:04 PM
 
Location: Silicon Valley
2,759 posts, read 1,211,909 times
Reputation: 5077
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jobster View Post
Ah, the good old fashioned smash and grab!
Ewww...people go to jail for that. I'm not jail material.

Besides, even when you take on enough risk to bankrupt the entire world, you still only get 5 years, a decade later, if you're the centerpiece, and your company and stock has already been bailed out:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/10/b...raud-case.html

Remember, if you're going to steal, the last thing you want anywhere near you is a weapon. Every city has large departments devoted to finding bad guys with weapons and punishing them. People understand those bad guys.

White collar crime....wait, what's the difference between a crime and business risk again? Freeze or I'll....consider not buying your stock.
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Old 08-07-2018, 01:35 PM
 
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, originally from SF Bay Area
28,400 posts, read 50,602,810 times
Reputation: 28637
There will always be a need for jobs that cannot be replaced by automation, they just are not the kind most people are looking for, sitting at a comfortable desk in an air-conditioned office. While they have been using drones now to help find hotspots, there are more than 3,600 humans working to fight the Carr Fire in California. That is not even the largest, the Mendocino fire has 3,900 people working it, and there are several other fires being fought there, and in other western states. Many of our electric crews are being paid overtime to help replace power poles/lines destroyed by fire in the Redding area, and of course, there will be an even greater shortage of construction workers when the insurance checks start coming in.
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Old 08-07-2018, 03:11 PM
 
Location: Arcadia, CA
101 posts, read 32,396 times
Reputation: 148
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
I remember sitting in accounting classes during 2008 where they said IFRS was going to phase out U.S GAAP.

Here we sit 10 years later still using U.S GAAP.

It’s always “coming soon”.
I remember in 2003 one of my college professors predicted we would have a female president long before a black president.
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