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Old 08-09-2018, 04:18 PM
 
5,600 posts, read 4,206,197 times
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People seem to love the internet as a place to complain. Dire, sky is falling predictions seem to go with the complaining. I do sometimes wonder why know one comes to the internet to look for solutions to all the complaining and dire predictions. I is really easy to come up with a huge list of current jobs with virtually no possibility of being replaced any time with in decades.
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Old 08-09-2018, 04:28 PM
 
24,885 posts, read 11,605,138 times
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Some fascinating topics. Lets see....


Our rate of innovation is slowing. Yeah no. Quite the opposite. We are discovering new fundamental things constantly now. And we do appear to be on the cusp of building up fusion power! And its not "30 years away"...its 1-2 years for a proof of concept that generates positive power, from multiple companies-including big names like lockheed martin. Quantum computers....are rapidly coming of age. If you think its slowing, you TRULY arent paying attention.

Acceptance of new technologies is slowing? What? No again. It took decades for things to get moved into the marketplace in the past. We buy new phones every couple of years because of the rate of change! People are FAR more willing to embrace new technologies that work. Its only been recently that drones worked well enough to get pulled into common usage.

And we are seeing some basic AI show up, the changes will be REALLY slow at first. Better assistants, better facial recognition, etc. But the rate of changes we will see from it are not linear. The leap to creating a AI as smart as us at a reasonable price will occur very fast, and suddenly. But up until it occurs...people will say its 10 years away.
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Old 08-09-2018, 04:48 PM
 
6,819 posts, read 4,410,206 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greywar View Post
Our rate of innovation is slowing. Yeah no. Quite the opposite. We are discovering new fundamental things constantly now. And we do appear to be on the cusp of building up fusion power! And its not "30 years away"...its 1-2 years for a proof of concept that generates positive power, from multiple companies-including big names like lockheed martin. ...
It's good that you've raised a specific example, which we can follow in the news, and revisit from time to time. A sustained, net-positive fusion reaction has been 30 years away... for the past 50 years. That has been a running joke in applied physics. It was funny when I was a high school student. It was funny when I was a graduate student. And it's still funny. I will offer public apology on this very thread, and apology by DM to anyone who requests it, if by August 09, 2020, Lockheed-Martin (or anyone else) has shown a sustained (call it longer than 1 minute), contained, net energy-positive nuclear fusion reaction.
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Old 08-11-2018, 03:39 AM
 
Location: Gilbert, Arizona
2,600 posts, read 1,005,428 times
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Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
Yes, yes. Either "we've been warned for years and it's never happened" or "it's been happening forever and we've adapted." Got it.

Both groups are completely failing to understand the ground shift that's about to happen. The vague hand-flapping argument that there will somehow be as many kiosk-servicing jobs as there were counter service jobs is just the beginning of the misunderstanding. That "mechanical" jobs have always been subject to mechanization/automation is another. That formerly inviolate, human-intelligence-only jobs are now on the chopping block is the key change. This isn't eliminating the typing pool because the boss has Word (and probably still has juniors to do his typing, anyway); this is the elimination of whole job categories that have been regarded as un-replaceable, and the dominoes will fall faster and further than almost anyone can presently grasp.

See youse in five years or so. If you can still afford internet access.
Most people don't understand the true power of technology anyways. So just let them find out for themselves.

I'm sure people like I who have an engineering background (electrical/computer), will understand the power of such technology and said consequences to the national economy if such technologies were to be deployed on a national scale. Just take Amazon's Go technology, which could eliminate all cashiering positions in the entire country (could is political speak for, until it's economically viable to do so ).

Then again, these will be the same people who will say, "want a better job, work harder".
While everyone else in the tech industry is all about working smarter.
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Old 08-15-2018, 07:01 PM
 
24,885 posts, read 11,605,138 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post
It's good that you've raised a specific example, which we can follow in the news, and revisit from time to time. A sustained, net-positive fusion reaction has been 30 years away... for the past 50 years. That has been a running joke in applied physics. It was funny when I was a high school student. It was funny when I was a graduate student. And it's still funny. I will offer public apology on this very thread, and apology by DM to anyone who requests it, if by August 09, 2020, Lockheed-Martin (or anyone else) has shown a sustained (call it longer than 1 minute), contained, net energy-positive nuclear fusion reaction.

Hmmm..50/50 on it by 2020. Change the date to 2024 and I'd bet money on it. If it was just Lockheed martin I'd probably be more skeptical. But at this point its a race between more then half a dozen companies, and multiple nations. And we have seen some serious progress lately. From new higher powered magnets, to advances in fusion containment.



Here is the KSTAR reactor managing fusion containment for 70 seconds:
Korean fusion reactor achieves record plasma - World Nuclear News


Temperatures up to 300 million C for 70 seconds. That doesnt meet your requirements, but its showing some amazing progress to it.
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Old 08-16-2018, 01:18 PM
 
Location: Boston
5,097 posts, read 1,455,542 times
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city-data is full of cubicle warriors that have nothing to do at work but complain life isn't fair and that they're not paid enough. It's fun to watch.
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Old 08-16-2018, 03:23 PM
 
886 posts, read 177,125 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
You can't compare Excel to sophisticated AI.

Excel is a tool - not really different than a wheel, or using a tractor to plow instead of horses or oxen. Previously, five data analysts may have been required to do what one person can do with Excel. Excel isn't going to make an arithmetical error, and tasks that may have taken hours of time for multiple personnel can be done in short order by one.

However, Excel still requires an operator and someone to feed it information. Additional jobs in IT support, training, etc., have been generated around that software.

Take a look at self-service kiosks at fast food restaurants. Right now, those jobs may be wiping out cashier positions, but new positions to design/service/install/maintain the kiosks are being generated. Let's say the kiosk has a code error and requires someone to reboot it. You may have to dispatch a technician to service the device. Still, the aggregate effect is probably a net loss of overall jobs. Ten or twenty years in the future, that kiosk may have the capability to create its own code faults, and essentially be "auto-repairing." That could eliminate a lot of the technician positions, even engineering.

What if you're looking at AI that has the ability to improve/maintain itself, or dispatch another machine to repair something that was damaged? You will need substantially less of the human component.

People have never had to compete with something that potentially had the capacity to "learn," optimize itself, etc.
We work with AI and it's still terribly slow to adapt to pivots in strategy, requires too much statistical significance compared to human "instinct" and fails to notice key nuances that humans pick up on right away.

We need to work with AI but it is nowhere near close to taking over. At best it's a better version of Excel that can do more tricks. But it still needs much oversight.

We're just not there yet , maybe 100 years from now when I'm long gone. But I predict employers will try to jump the gun and fail then have to double back and hire again.
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Old 08-17-2018, 09:43 AM
 
4,328 posts, read 4,426,600 times
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Originally Posted by Tencent View Post
We work with AI and it's still terribly slow to adapt to pivots in strategy, requires too much statistical significance compared to human "instinct" and fails to notice key nuances that humans pick up on right away.

We need to work with AI but it is nowhere near close to taking over. At best it's a better version of Excel that can do more tricks. But it still needs much oversight.

We're just not there yet , maybe 100 years from now when I'm long gone. But I predict employers will try to jump the gun and fail then have to double back and hire again.
Lol, I build AI systems, I would not call it a better version of excel, it's insanely more powerful than that. R is a better version of excel. I don't disagree that human oversight is still critical, but calling it a better version of excel is completely inaccurate.
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