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Old 08-10-2018, 12:34 PM
 
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It is not going south but it is not going up as fast as it did but we have to realize
1) the high season for real estate is over for this year. spring is the hot season and we are at end of summer. those who were looking for house have already brought a place. We are less than a month away from school opening. Houses sell rest of the year but it is always cheaper in winter than in spring/summer.

2) I have been keeping eye on my local market and people were going crazy earlier this year, listing house that were at absurd price. Trying to see what they can get. Many bad houses are coming to the market asking for standard price, not acknowledging their house is not up to standard. Those houses, unfit house or over price house, are sitting in market for months making it seem like we have more inventory

3) I personally know of several people who gave up on house hunting because the price is sky rocketing. They figure it should come down in few years, so why not wait. Just like right after the recession in 2011/2012 many home owners sat on the house even thought they really wanted to list it. The same way, the buyers are on holding mood now. Leading to us reaching a good balance, the price are stabilizing
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Old 08-10-2018, 12:37 PM
DKM
 
Location: Thousand Oaks, CA
2,060 posts, read 670,106 times
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slowing sales doesn't mean prices fall. It only means prices have no support to keep climbing. To say the market is going south is not supported by evidence.
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Old 08-10-2018, 01:10 PM
 
10,696 posts, read 20,114,276 times
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Sales are slowing because of a lack of inventory.
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Old 08-10-2018, 01:33 PM
 
64,511 posts, read 66,075,955 times
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houses are like snow flakes .

there can be hundred houses for sale but if my wife does not like them then how many are available is irrelevant . it is never quantity , but quality that determines if homes sell or not . they are not like stocks where each share is the same .

so when housing slows there can be lots of buyers but nothing they like .
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Old 08-10-2018, 01:36 PM
 
16,476 posts, read 17,501,756 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by k374 View Post
oh boy, here come the homeowners in droves trying to defend the bubble market, completely out of touch with reality... no worries, heard this in 2006 as well. Enjoy the "denial phase" while it lasts.
Well buddy here’s your ( and thousands like you) chance to swoop down and pick up a Cra-Zy smoking house deal when the market turns. I mean that’s pretty much what all you “housing is crashing” chicken little posters are waiting for isn’t it? Looking at any little “sign” to spout doom and gloom. Waiting to tell all of us how we screwed up and we’re losing millions and we will be living in a cardboard box.
I can tell you can’t wait to get your day to say “ I was right. I told you so. When the housing takes a crap i’m gonna buy my house at huge discounts and I’ll be a mini Trump” “all you guys are screwed” doesn’t matter if it’s 3 years or 20 years from now you’ll be vindicated because “you were right”.



I have a buddy who, like you has been crying about the market dropping and “housing is not worth it” oh ......since 2010. While he’s spouting all the negatives and the greatest market crash since Jesus was crucified I bought another house. Rented my old house (added it to the investment and rentals portfolio ) and added around 30 something thousand additional dollars to my income from that one rental , got another job making 25k a year more than I was making at my old job. But in your observation..... the market is crashing because some d-bag from Forbes says the market has lost some sales numbers. Not everyone is doing badly in this economy. Plenty of people are thriving. Many on this board are doing better than I am.
Oh and my buddy....yeah...... he’s still renting. Even though he could of bought a house 8 years ago and be basically 1/2 or 1/3 of the way paid off. Paying more for rent than I’m paying for my whole mortgage and insurance. So let’s say you’re right. And housing crashes. Put your money where your mouth is and play The Big Short. What do you think is gonna happen to all those people who lose their houses, jobs, assets? Yup they all become renters. And someone will buy those houses they lost. Just like last time. And the next time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grlzrl View Post
It is going south where I live. I have been seeing it for a while. People got greedy and were putting their houses on in Jan and Feb for pretty high amounts. I have seen multiple price drops on many homes. (Except of course the one I want which is 20% overpriced and just sitting there).
This just means your market is reached its affordability ceiling for buyers and sellers are a over optimistic. If thee are multiple buyers in the market price drops basically means you overpriced. Unless you have no buyers in the market and need to drop the price to attract a few buyers and it’s a buyers market......then possibly in your area that may be the case. This doesn’t translate into everywhere across the nation.
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Old 08-10-2018, 01:56 PM
 
Location: NJ
22,668 posts, read 28,551,950 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by k374 View Post
oh boy, here come the homeowners in droves trying to defend the bubble market, completely out of touch with reality... no worries, heard this in 2006 as well. Enjoy the "denial phase" while it lasts.
you seem like the one that has an emotional attachment to this issue.
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Old 08-10-2018, 02:30 PM
 
763 posts, read 1,070,413 times
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Definitely haven't seen anything that resembles market issues In CA. Lots being listed for sale daily, and lots being sold within a few weeks. Only thing I have noticed is values increasing.
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Old 08-10-2018, 02:42 PM
 
Location: Olympus Mons, Mars
5,000 posts, read 8,029,485 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainNJ View Post
you seem like the one that has an emotional attachment to this issue.
not quite, that would be wholly inaccurate. Rather most of the responses to this post are laced with emotional attachment to the price level of their homes. By "going south" I posted what the title is implying "housing is souring and it isn't coming back".

Prices of homes do drop, and they do drop drastically. Homeowners claim in an absolute manner that there is "no bubble" yet based on affordability metrics, high leverage and high level of speculation it can be argued otherwise.

The argument that there is no speculation is laughable. SoCal, Vegas and Phoenix have heavy flipping activity. Since 2013 large hedge funds have turned properties into Rental Backed Securities etc. etc. If that is not the quintessence of speculation then I do not know what is.

I have no interest in buying a home personally, I think homes in the large metro areas are overrated and more expensive than people think in terms of interest, taxes, maintenance. In places like Southern California I would bet that 80+% of organic buyers purchasing homes can barely afford them using traditional affordability metrics, I know plenty who are buying with 3-5% down, raiding their 401ks, taking out ARMs now that interest rates have gone up, taking super expensive FHA loans, not having enough of a buffer to even sustain their mortgage and household expenses for more than 3-4 months which is pathetic. A colleague of mine recently bought a $725,000 home in SoCal, guy has no money in retirement, has 3 months of emergency savings - because he put 20% down (all his savings) into this house. People like this are plenty, hanging by a thread, the next recession the wave of foreclosures start with them.
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Old 08-10-2018, 02:48 PM
 
1,287 posts, read 288,534 times
Reputation: 1120
Quote:
Originally Posted by DKM View Post
slowing sales doesn't mean prices fall. It only means prices have no support to keep climbing. To say the market is going south is not supported by evidence.
Not where I live. Prices are dropping and it has nothing to do with lack of inventory.
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Old 08-10-2018, 02:51 PM
 
Location: NJ
22,668 posts, read 28,551,950 times
Reputation: 14606
Quote:
Originally Posted by k374 View Post
not quite, that would be wholly inaccurate. Rather most of the responses to this post are laced with emotional attachment to the price level of their homes. By "going south" I posted what the title is implying "housing is souring and it isn't coming back".

Prices of homes do drop, and they do drop drastically. Homeowners claim in an absolute manner that there is "no bubble" yet based on affordability metrics, high leverage and high level of speculation it can be argued otherwise.

The argument that there is no speculation is laughable. SoCal, Vegas and Phoenix have heavy flipping activity. Since 2013 large hedge funds have turned properties into Rental Backed Securities etc. etc. If that is not the quintessence of speculation then I do not know what is.

I have no interest in buying a home personally, I think homes in the large metro areas are overrated and more expensive than people think in terms of interest, taxes, maintenance. In places like Southern California I would bet that 80+% of organic buyers purchasing homes can barely afford them using traditional affordability metrics, I know plenty who are buying with 3-5% down, raiding their 401ks, taking out ARMs now that interest rates have gone up, taking super expensive FHA loans, not having enough of a buffer to even sustain their mortgage and household expenses for more than 3-4 months which is pathetic. A colleague of mine recently bought a $725,000 home in SoCal, guy has no money in retirement, has 3 months of emergency savings - because he put 20% down (all his savings) into this house. People like this are plenty, hanging by a thread, the next recession the wave of foreclosures start with them.
aha so this is where your emotions are coming in. you dont own a home and want to come up with an economic argument against home ownership to bolster your own feelings of your situation.

as a home owner, i dont really care what happens to the value of my home. nothing i can do to change it at this point and no intention to sell for a decent amount of time.
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