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Old 08-10-2018, 02:53 PM
 
1,319 posts, read 293,260 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Electrician4you View Post

This just means your market is reached its affordability ceiling for buyers and sellers are a over optimistic. If thee are multiple buyers in the market price drops basically means you overpriced. Unless you have no buyers in the market and need to drop the price to attract a few buyers and itís a buyers market......then possibly in your area that may be the case. This doesnít translate into everywhere across the nation.
I agree it's not nationwide. Most of the time, it's not. (Except 2006 but even then the percentage drop varied).

The reason (IMO) prices are dropping is because people are leaving Illinois in droves because of the high taxes. I have listened to people gripe about taxes for years in Illinois but the 32% increase in state taxes in July 2017 and the increase in property taxes (our assessment went up 42%) finally drove people over the edge. Add to that the lack of deductibility of more than $10k and the fact that they are going to elect a governor who is RUNNING on a platform of raising taxes even more....prices are dropping.
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Old 08-10-2018, 02:54 PM
 
432 posts, read 177,775 times
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We just sold our house. We had two offers before it even hit the MLS. Buyers came from our "coming soon" sign.
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Old 08-10-2018, 02:56 PM
 
Location: Formerly Pleasanton Ca, now in Marietta Ga
4,112 posts, read 3,406,011 times
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This is not everyone, but a lot of people who don't invest in real estate and poo poo it invest in the market. When you ask them about a market drop they say the key is to hold for the long haul and despite ups and downs you will come out ahead.
Housing is the same way.it will cycle too, but over the long haul will pay off in appreaciation..
People also forget with a 30 year mortgage your payments can be fixed and over time you are paying with less because the dollar is worth less and less over time.
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Old 08-10-2018, 03:00 PM
 
64,630 posts, read 66,158,228 times
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it also means a paid off mortgage contributes less and less to affordability in many areas also .

when we bought our first homes in the 1970's a house was 30-35k . that mortgage was killer compared to rent .

well today those mortgages are paid off and taxes are 10-17k a year . so when it comes to affordability , not having that mortgage today really does not even cover the utility bill
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Old 08-10-2018, 06:40 PM
 
Location: SoCal
1,756 posts, read 1,795,118 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by k374 View Post
not quite, that would be wholly inaccurate. Rather most of the responses to this post are laced with emotional attachment to the price level of their homes. By "going south" I posted what the title is implying "housing is souring and it isn't coming back".

Prices of homes do drop, and they do drop drastically. Homeowners claim in an absolute manner that there is "no bubble" yet based on affordability metrics, high leverage and high level of speculation it can be argued otherwise.

The argument that there is no speculation is laughable. SoCal, Vegas and Phoenix have heavy flipping activity. Since 2013 large hedge funds have turned properties into Rental Backed Securities etc. etc. If that is not the quintessence of speculation then I do not know what is.

I have no interest in buying a home personally, I think homes in the large metro areas are overrated and more expensive than people think in terms of interest, taxes, maintenance. In places like Southern California I would bet that 80+% of organic buyers purchasing homes can barely afford them using traditional affordability metrics, I know plenty who are buying with 3-5% down, raiding their 401ks, taking out ARMs now that interest rates have gone up, taking super expensive FHA loans, not having enough of a buffer to even sustain their mortgage and household expenses for more than 3-4 months which is pathetic. A colleague of mine recently bought a $725,000 home in SoCal, guy has no money in retirement, has 3 months of emergency savings - because he put 20% down (all his savings) into this house. People like this are plenty, hanging by a thread, the next recession the wave of foreclosures start with them.
What happens in 20 years when the home is worth 4x what it is now. Homes now in SoCal are 4x what they were 20 years ago, and that's with two major recessions.
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Old 08-10-2018, 06:43 PM
 
1,239 posts, read 613,317 times
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Market is booming in my area with no signs of slowing down.
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Old 08-10-2018, 06:54 PM
 
Location: Denver CO
19,005 posts, read 10,047,592 times
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I'd be happy to discuss an article showing that the housing market is going south. Unfortunately, what you've linked to is an opinion piece (not an article) where the author hasn't produced a shred of documentation of the data he claims he's basing his opinion on.

But since we are discussing opinions, my opinion is that at least in my market, the crazy rate of prices going up is in fact starting to slow down a bit. That doesn't mean they aren't going up, just that they aren't going up 1% a month anymore. I'm not selling time soon so that's not going to have a personal impact but overall I think that's a good thing. That rate of appreciation was of course unsustainable. Since I live somewhere that continues to have more people moving in than are moving out, and new construction continues to sell as fast as they can build it, I don't see the bottom falling out anytime soon.
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Old 08-10-2018, 08:32 PM
 
Location: Brawndo-Thirst-Mutilator-Nation
15,172 posts, read 15,218,690 times
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Let's just hope that there is severe "emergency measures", that will be quickly implemented, if and when any sort of serious and sustained real-estate correction rears its nightmarish head.
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Old 08-10-2018, 11:28 PM
 
2,621 posts, read 2,027,509 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by emm74 View Post
I'd be happy to discuss an article showing that the housing market is going south. Unfortunately, what you've linked to is an opinion piece (not an article) where the author hasn't produced a shred of documentation of the data he claims he's basing his opinion on.

But since we are discussing opinions, my opinion is that at least in my market, the crazy rate of prices going up is in fact starting to slow down a bit. That doesn't mean they aren't going up, just that they aren't going up 1% a month anymore. I'm not selling time soon so that's not going to have a personal impact but overall I think that's a good thing. That rate of appreciation was of course unsustainable. Since I live somewhere that continues to have more people moving in than are moving out, and new construction continues to sell as fast as they can build it, I don't see the bottom falling out anytime soon.
Ever since the bubble pop, people are completely convinced that a housing crash is normal and happens all the time now. I talk to people about real estate a lot and it blows my mind what people say. And it isn't just a few people here and there, it is the majority of people.

Right now, housing is not going to crash. Slow down, yup, maybe even go slightly negative for a year off the peak (whenever we finally get there, could still be years away), but all this is NORMAL. All those people who think housing is going to crumble, crash, etc.... "because the cost of housing is way too high" have no clue how the housing market works, what caused the last crash and why we aren't in that same situation.
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Old 08-11-2018, 06:10 AM
 
2,364 posts, read 3,029,570 times
Reputation: 4606
Around here houses are selling very well. Prices are also increasing at a steady sustainable rate. There is a low inventory as well and if anything the inventory is too low. I haven't seen anything that would point to a bubble in housing.

Like any of the other market analysts that are usually wrong, if you keep saying it long enough, eventually you will get to say I told you so. It may be 5 or 10 years from now but eventually there will be a downturn.
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