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Old 10-01-2018, 09:23 AM
 
346 posts, read 168,560 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ultrarunner View Post
This makes many assumptions...

Just because someone moves into a new development doesn't mean they need or will use public transit...

Plenty of work from home models and those that work odd hours or those no longer in the workforce.
No assumptions - there are dozens of articles on the topic regarding development and overcrowding of the PATH train:
https://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/...owded_now.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/path-st...oom-1465173966

Jersey City isn’t Shangri La - it’s crowded, very expensive for what it is, not all that aesthetic, lousy schools, not much in the way of cultural activity (that’s all in NYC), etc. The main reason people move there is for the easy access to NYC without paying NYC prices (even though it’s no bargain). In that particular case it’s pretty safe to assume at least 50% of the new residents will be living there will be using the PATH on a daily basis. Many of those residents will work in the financial sector in NYC which typically follows regular business hours because of the markets.

Telecommuters will likely pick another location - I got out of N.J. altogether once my husband and I had the freedom to do so with our jobs.
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Old 10-01-2018, 10:29 AM
 
Location: Lower East Side, NYC
1,894 posts, read 1,130,263 times
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Yup, no one moves to Jersey City that I know of to live in Jersey City, they do it for proximity to NYC, to pay less than Manhattan, to have nicer buildings, etc. It's all about NYC with Jersey City, which makes a lot of sense considering location. It's very easy to assume people rely on the Path, and often times too the light rail and buses, to commute. It's too crowded to have a car reliably, and while people do just as they do in Manhattan, it's a much smaller populace than those that don't. I know plenty of people in Jersey City both transient and not. No one uses a car and almost everyone uses the Path (A select few work in Jersey City).

I feel like the amount of people telecommuting in Jersey City is very small. Why do that and not live in Manhattan? Why not Brooklyn? Why not Hoboken? If you want suburbs, why are you even in Jersey City which lacks the positives of suburbs? There isn't much appeal to Jersey City and it's honestly pretty expensive.
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Old 10-01-2018, 11:22 AM
 
10,782 posts, read 20,288,644 times
Reputation: 9925
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ultrarunner View Post
This makes many assumptions...

Just because someone moves into a new development doesn't mean they need or will use public transit...

Plenty of work from home models and those that work odd hours or those no longer in the workforce.

As to paying... Mello-Roos is alive and well... with monies collected for streets, drainage, parks, fire and schools...
The assumption that new residents will use roads, water, electricity, etc is a pretty valid assumption...no?

One development won't have much of an impact but you add them all up and it becomes significant.
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Old 10-01-2018, 11:42 AM
 
1,691 posts, read 394,750 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ultrarunner View Post
Association of Realtors just said inventory is up in many pricey markets...

The lower more affordable segment is still very strong...
For sure it's the luxury market getting slammed.
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Old 10-01-2018, 11:45 AM
 
1,691 posts, read 394,750 times
Reputation: 1460
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cubicle Dweller View Post

As for my own house search, even my realtor has told me to sit tight for a little while as patience will likely pay off given the current indicators. I was surprised to hear that from a realtor but I truly appreciate his honesty.
Same. I am stalking a house that is way overpriced and my realtor advised me to wait. People just can't understand why.
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Old 10-01-2018, 12:19 PM
 
25,974 posts, read 50,049,668 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Javawood View Post
Yup, no one moves to Jersey City that I know of to live in Jersey City, they do it for proximity to NYC, to pay less than Manhattan, to have nicer buildings, etc. It's all about NYC with Jersey City, which makes a lot of sense considering location. It's very easy to assume people rely on the Path, and often times too the light rail and buses, to commute. It's too crowded to have a car reliably, and while people do just as they do in Manhattan, it's a much smaller populace than those that don't. I know plenty of people in Jersey City both transient and not. No one uses a car and almost everyone uses the Path (A select few work in Jersey City).

I feel like the amount of people telecommuting in Jersey City is very small. Why do that and not live in Manhattan? Why not Brooklyn? Why not Hoboken? If you want suburbs, why are you even in Jersey City which lacks the positives of suburbs? There isn't much appeal to Jersey City and it's honestly pretty expensive.
Isn't New Jersey the Garden State... sounds nice.

I have never visited so no personal knowledge... had a cousin that lived their once... she liked it but said it was expensive... especially the property taxes.

I live in Oakland CA and taxpayers pay a lot for transit... Bus and BART subsidies... plus other special assessments... a lot of it is gear towards San Francisco... in all my days I have yet to ride AC Transit Bus or commute via BART... but I still pay for it.
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Old 10-01-2018, 12:27 PM
 
25,974 posts, read 50,049,668 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wheelsup View Post
The assumption that new residents will use roads, water, electricity, etc is a pretty valid assumption...no?

One development won't have much of an impact but you add them all up and it becomes significant.
I don't know... I have worked in planning for 27 years as part of engineering... the city a few years back greatly reduced parking requirements.

When the current Hospital was built... we needed a MINIMUM of 5 parking spaces per 1,000 square feet of building... the parking lot as never more than 60% capacity... now we have new regs that range from 3 to 3.5 spaces per 1,000 square feet... and still have unused spaces... people bike to work in the SF Bay Area... plus Uber et. al. is huge... even patients come via Uber...

The nearby high rise town homes have so many extra parking spaces they sublease to BART commuters...

The cost for a water hook up is as much as 50k and paid at the time of permit... Electricity would like more users as conservation is taking a toll... even things like LED bulbs... the complaint is the distribution is too large for the demand... water is the same way... very little difference in costs between a pipeline running at max capacity vs very little capacity...

Roads... well.. this is a good one as my city is on a 100 year paving schedule... the road at my home was paved in 1957 when new... nothing since... no repairs, surfacing, chip and seal... Nada...

Maybe these are public enterprises in other places where the taxpayers underwrite the cost of electricity?
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Old 10-01-2018, 12:29 PM
 
25,974 posts, read 50,049,668 times
Reputation: 19498
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grlzrl View Post
For sure it's the luxury market getting slammed.
Lots of days on market increases and price reductions... plus more inventory.

It seems collectively, a lot of retired folks waiting it out have decided now is a good time to list.

On the other hand... the starter segment of the market sells fast.

One way I looked at it simplistically is it use to take 3 to 4 starter homes to equal a higher end home...

Right now where I am the ratio can easily be 2 starter homes or maybe 2.5 equal a higher end home.
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Old 10-01-2018, 12:59 PM
 
10,782 posts, read 20,288,644 times
Reputation: 9925
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ultrarunner View Post
I don't know... I have worked in planning for 27 years as part of engineering... the city a few years back greatly reduced parking requirements.

When the current Hospital was built... we needed a MINIMUM of 5 parking spaces per 1,000 square feet of building... the parking lot as never more than 60% capacity... now we have new regs that range from 3 to 3.5 spaces per 1,000 square feet... and still have unused spaces... people bike to work in the SF Bay Area... plus Uber et. al. is huge... even patients come via Uber...

The nearby high rise town homes have so many extra parking spaces they sublease to BART commuters...

The cost for a water hook up is as much as 50k and paid at the time of permit... Electricity would like more users as conservation is taking a toll... even things like LED bulbs... the complaint is the distribution is too large for the demand... water is the same way... very little difference in costs between a pipeline running at max capacity vs very little capacity...

Roads... well.. this is a good one as my city is on a 100 year paving schedule... the road at my home was paved in 1957 when new... nothing since... no repairs, surfacing, chip and seal... Nada...

Maybe these are public enterprises in other places where the taxpayers underwrite the cost of electricity?
Coastal CA lives in its own bubble though. Surely you know this. The vast majority of cities aren't anything like CA.
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Old 10-01-2018, 01:02 PM
 
10,782 posts, read 20,288,644 times
Reputation: 9925
I follow the Dallas market and every home I have "liked" on Zillow has been bought within two weeks of listing and relisted as a rental. Investors are buying up all the lower end stuff making the rental market very tight as no one can buy a house. It's really getting pretty bad. Rents are high because they've got a lock on the rentals.
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