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Old 09-09-2018, 02:08 PM
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2,545 posts, read 3,747,109 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SportyandMisty View Post
For an accurate account, read:

On the Brink: Inside the Race to Stop the Collapse of the Global Financial System -- With Original New Material on the Five Year Anniversary of the Financial Crisis https://www.amazon.com/dp/1455551902..._XViLBbNC029F2

And

Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises https://www.amazon.com/dp/0804138613..._jYiLBbKJ7XR3R

The first book is by Hank Paulson, Bush’s Secretary of the Treasury, and the second book is by Tim Geithner, Obama’s Secretary of the Treasury.
I have read Geithner’s book.....but “for an accurate account”.

I think you mean a book written from the perspective of the Elites. They WERE THE PROBLEM!!

It is important to read books by the folks that screwed you. But you really need to read books written by folks that do not have an axe to grind and a understanding of the events.
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Old 09-10-2018, 05:25 PM
 
Location: Paranoid State
12,685 posts, read 9,432,561 times
Reputation: 14942
Quote:
Originally Posted by kokonutty View Post
Odd graph. The X axis appears to reference the year but there's no identification of the metric used on the Y axis. Going from zero to 175, it obviously does not reference a percentage. What is the question that was asked in the survey and was it consistent over the entire period?
From the Conference Board website: it is scaled such that year 1985 was =100. Also the survey "based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch."

It doesn't list the exact questions nor does it address consistency over time. Nielsen is a respected survey research company. One would hope they follow sound methodology.

Also from their press release:

“Consumer confidence increased to its highest level since October 2000 (Index, 135.8), following a modest improvement in July,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions improved further. Expectations, which had declined in June and July, bounced back in August and continue to suggest solid economic growth for the remainder of 2018. Overall, these historically high confidence levels should continue to support healthy consumer spending in the near-term.”
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Old 09-10-2018, 10:37 PM
 
6,121 posts, read 3,320,648 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SportyandMisty View Post
From the Conference Board website: it is scaled such that year 1985 was =100. Also the survey "based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch."

It doesn't list the exact questions nor does it address consistency over time. Nielsen is a respected survey research company. One would hope they follow sound methodology.

Also from their press release:

“Consumer confidence increased to its highest level since October 2000 (Index, 135.8), following a modest improvement in July,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions improved further. Expectations, which had declined in June and July, bounced back in August and continue to suggest solid economic growth for the remainder of 2018. Overall, these historically high confidence levels should continue to support healthy consumer spending in the near-term.”
Which begs the question of why 1985 is presumed to be a benchmark and what is the scale of measurement?
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Old 09-11-2018, 07:24 AM
 
342 posts, read 77,235 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SWFL_Native View Post
It's more to do that their type of expenses the inflation is relatively under control (healthcare, long-term care, etc..) while their income streams (social security, medicare) are relatively protected as has been the stock market.
I wouldn't say healthcare costs are under control, especially since seniors age 55 and over can include those who are on ACA policies because they retired before age 65, or don't have coverage at work, or have it but are bearing an increasing portion of the costs. My brother and SIL lost their retiree health insurance (company just decided to quit providing it AFTER brother retired) and are paying $22K/year for health insurance for the two of them. My ACA premiums doubled from 2014, when I retired, to 2017 and the network and coverage just got crappier. This year Medicare kicked in, thank heaven.

Having said that- I may have been a participant in the survey - I'm in the e-Rewards program and get points I can redeem for Hilton points, AA miles and Starbucks credits in return for answering surveys. I get a reasonable number of "consumer confidence" ones, including Neilson.

I'd credit the bull market for this. I'm not sure if they got a good sample of people trying to live on SS alone, which is a challenge (average monthly SS check is about $1,400). Those of us who were able (and willing) to save and invest for retirement have seen impressive gains. Over the 4.5 years since I retired, my net worth has increased 3.6%/year AFTER withdrawals. I know that's not going to last forever but right now I feel pretty positive.
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Old 09-11-2018, 06:06 PM
 
Location: ATX/Houston
1,817 posts, read 469,003 times
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So seniors are confident enough to trim their medicare so the rest of us have a shot of getting some..... them tax cuts don't pay for themselves....
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Old 09-12-2018, 03:26 AM
 
Location: Sector 001
7,131 posts, read 5,947,609 times
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I admit things are going well but running a nearly one trillion dollar deficit at this stage of an economic expansion is dangerous... when the next recession hits it will take a 2 trillion dollar deficit to keep things from collapsing. Something has to give eventually.. either much higher inflation or much more liquidation or both.

I personally think there will be a first world crisis concerning all these social programs, that there will simply be no way to afford them all with lower birth rates and longer life spans, and that encouraging people to breed is not the answer. Hopefully automation and technological progress can take up the slack.
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Old 09-12-2018, 03:29 AM
 
Location: Sector 001
7,131 posts, read 5,947,609 times
Reputation: 8047
I admit things are going well but running a nearly one trillion dollar deficit at this stage of an economic expansion is dangerous... when the next recession hits it will take a 2 trillion dollar deficit to keep things from collapsing. Something has to give eventually.. either much higher inflation or much more liquidation or both.

I personally think there will be a first world crisis concerning all these social programs, that there will simply be no way to afford them all with lower birth rates and longer life spans, and that encouraging people to breed is not the answer. Hopefully automation and technological progress can take up the slack.

If at some point people don't want to buy our bonds, I suppose that just means higher rates until they do. Are 10-15% rates in our future? Bring it on, I say. Higher rates naturally get people to be more fiscally conservative with their spending.. it will force people to trim the fat, including government... no more spending $5,000 on a toilet and handing out lucrative cushy contracts to subcontractors like for example what the state of WI tends to do with road projects.
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Old 09-12-2018, 07:10 AM
 
342 posts, read 77,235 times
Reputation: 745
Quote:
Originally Posted by okcthunder1945 View Post
So seniors are confident enough to trim their medicare so the rest of us have a shot of getting some..... them tax cuts don't pay for themselves....
This senior will pay MORE in taxes for 2018 compared to 2017. Singles (I'm a widow) always get slammed harder. There's also an IRMAA adjustment to the Medicare premium in my future, which will double my Medicare costs.
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Old 09-12-2018, 09:23 AM
 
Location: Paranoid State
12,685 posts, read 9,432,561 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by athena53 View Post
... seniors age 55 and over...
LOL! That's a good one.
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Old 09-18-2018, 08:26 PM
 
4,733 posts, read 2,259,491 times
Reputation: 8791
Quote:
Originally Posted by athena53 View Post
This senior will pay MORE in taxes for 2018 compared to 2017.
Why? I didn't know they made tax brackets higher for people of a certain age. I'm not a senior yet so haven't confronted this issue.

Quote:
Originally Posted by stockwiz View Post
I admit things are going well but running a nearly one trillion dollar deficit at this stage of an economic expansion is dangerous
Agreed. There is nothing wrong with running a deficit but this expansion and healthy economy should be a time to be reducing it, not expanding it.
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