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Old 10-04-2018, 09:40 AM
 
8,573 posts, read 3,679,286 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
Yeah, but that's because anybody with any talent moved to somewhere with better economic opportunity. It's not like the United States doesn't have several centuries of history where that happened. Skilled labor is mobile. It's only poor people who are anchored in place.
We also had periods where the poor, including many southern Blacks migrated to jobs up North in the big cities. Like to Detroit during WW2. Today that effort is stalled by industrial automation, higher COL in cities and social programs that provide enough subsistence living, making the inertia to relocate more difficult to overcome.
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Old 10-04-2018, 11:34 AM
 
3,781 posts, read 3,122,238 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
cocaine ,heroine and especially meth use has become insane in many areas so drug testing is still used big time here in ny . the number of failures are way to high .
It's now a recognized fact that many companies have abandoned the drug testing routine with the exception being those who are required by law (CDL license--Military aircraft production etc) to do so. Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and a ton of military contractors seem to be doing well on the hiring front these last two decades, hiring thousands at a time off the streets and they all have testing requirements.

MJ is and was the culprit drug that caused so many employment testing failures, so it's use is now looked upon much in the same way as alcohol use, employees can't "use" on the job, but in their off time it's not the bosses business. I worked with some people who were caught using drugs in random testing procedures, never high on the job, but the drugs used were still in their system and they were fired, weed was the drug used that caused their release from the company, don't know how that would pan out today. At any rate I've been reading some informative articles about the subject and see changes coming, here's an article that gets to the basics of the problem most companies are faced with. I don't think anyone wants to deal with a drug addled employee, but we have to decide what's more dangerous, to America, drugs--or mass employment failures caused by a too stringent testing regimen.

http://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018...s-cost-benefit

As for the trucking industry not having enough new blood coming on-board, here's a good piece on that, and it has little to do with drugs.

www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/05/21/america-doesnt-have-enough-truckers-and-its-starting-to-cause-prices-of-about-everything-to-rise/?utm_term=.66b89788f3ab
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Old 10-04-2018, 01:34 PM
 
67,759 posts, read 68,532,392 times
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you can argue all you want . but it all boils down whether "YOU" were tested and rejected or not at or for a job you applied for ,and i don't mean you personally .
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Old 10-04-2018, 01:51 PM
 
3,556 posts, read 3,347,601 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
Taxes just went in the wrong direction. The Social Security program just turned cash flow negative. Taxes have to go up to keep that program tax flow neutral forever. You don't run huge deficits and borrow huge piles of money in good times. You run modest surpluses. Juicing the economy at this point in the cycle is going to create a very large thud when the cycle corrects. The whole point of fiscal and monetary policy is to dampen an inherently unstable economic cycle. Today's policy makes things less stable, not more stable. There's no headroom to use conventional fiscal and monetary policy when the correction happens. Interest rates are still very low. We risk doing a Greece if we crank up deficit spending any higher. Even with all the juicing, the economy isn't even growing at 4%.



If we actually have a trade war with China, it gets really ugly very quickly. The US will cave in long before China but that's likely after the trigger point for the correction happens.
Why do you believe the U.S. will cave in first?

China doesn't make anything that we can't make for ourselves. They have a lock on rare earth magnets but even those are from Africa and other places. The Chinese just have purchased the plants.

It would be bad if they stopped buying our airplanes and soy products, true. But we'll survive.

China, on the other hand, would lose 25% of their export market. Sucks to be them.
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Old 10-04-2018, 02:08 PM
 
8,573 posts, read 3,679,286 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blisterpeanuts View Post
Why do you believe the U.S. will cave in first?

China doesn't make anything that we can't make for ourselves. They have a lock on rare earth magnets but even those are from Africa and other places. The Chinese just have purchased the plants.

It would be bad if they stopped buying our airplanes and soy products, true. But we'll survive.

China, on the other hand, would lose 25% of their export market. Sucks to be them.
China has a central command that can prop up any of their industries in secret. And that is a huge advantage over the West.

Also they have massive middle class growth, creating huge numbers of new consumers. Over time China may well need to import much more stuff. So maybe the US could then do more exports.
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Old 10-04-2018, 04:45 PM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
11,528 posts, read 11,895,267 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoonose View Post
China has a central command that can prop up any of their industries in secret. And that is a huge advantage over the West.

Also they have massive middle class growth, creating huge numbers of new consumers. Over time China may well need to import much more stuff. So maybe the US could then do more exports.
There's only so much central control can do. We import $500 billion from them, they import $50 billion from us, and their imports from us are basically food.

I watch the ag market reports. The Chinese are buying all the soybeans in Argentina. Argentina is happy to sell them every soy bean in the country, but they have a major soy oil production industry, so they need beans, which they are buying from the US. US food exports account for about 5% of world food trade, and there isn't that much slush in the system. We're only 5 years out from having 8 billion hungry people on this planet, and we already barely meet demand.

There is no doubt the US has the hammer on tariffs with China. Canada not so much. Picking a NAFTA fight while getting into a trade war with China was really stupid.

If we can just get the Chinese to honor royalties, it would be worth between $225 billion and $600 billion a year. The Chinese are stealing us blind, and I'm 100% behind nailing their sorry asses for it. If we have to get mean with the tariffs, so be it.

https://www.theamericanconservative....roperty-theft/
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Old 10-04-2018, 06:04 PM
 
8,573 posts, read 3,679,286 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
There's only so much central control can do. We import $500 billion from them, they import $50 billion from us, and their imports from us are basically food.

I watch the ag market reports. The Chinese are buying all the soybeans in Argentina. Argentina is happy to sell them every soy bean in the country, but they have a major soy oil production industry, so they need beans, which they are buying from the US. US food exports account for about 5% of world food trade, and there isn't that much slush in the system. We're only 5 years out from having 8 billion hungry people on this planet, and we already barely meet demand.

There is no doubt the US has the hammer on tariffs with China. Canada not so much. Picking a NAFTA fight while getting into a trade war with China was really stupid.

If we can just get the Chinese to honor royalties, it would be worth between $225 billion and $600 billion a year. The Chinese are stealing us blind, and I'm 100% behind nailing their sorry asses for it. If we have to get mean with the tariffs, so be it.

https://www.theamericanconservative....roperty-theft/
The Chinese can counter tariffs through money creation schemes. Sure there must be some limit to that, including inflation. But so far it has not stopped their command.

For instance Solar.

And another:

https://voxeu.org/article/chinas-hid...ding-subsidies

I agree on the royalties, but I can't imagine substantive enforcement.
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Old 10-05-2018, 12:03 PM
 
4,125 posts, read 2,270,685 times
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This economy needs far far less false stimulus. A correction is well needed and overdue.
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Old 10-05-2018, 03:33 PM
 
3,556 posts, read 3,347,601 times
Reputation: 8371
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
There's only so much central control can do. We import $500 billion from them, they import $50 billion from us, and their imports from us are basically food.

I watch the ag market reports. The Chinese are buying all the soybeans in Argentina. Argentina is happy to sell them every soy bean in the country, but they have a major soy oil production industry, so they need beans, which they are buying from the US. US food exports account for about 5% of world food trade, and there isn't that much slush in the system. We're only 5 years out from having 8 billion hungry people on this planet, and we already barely meet demand.

There is no doubt the US has the hammer on tariffs with China. Canada not so much. Picking a NAFTA fight while getting into a trade war with China was really stupid.

If we can just get the Chinese to honor royalties, it would be worth between $225 billion and $600 billion a year. The Chinese are stealing us blind, and I'm 100% behind nailing their sorry asses for it. If we have to get mean with the tariffs, so be it.

https://www.theamericanconservative....roperty-theft/
He campaigned on revamping NAFTA. It was a low hanging fruit. We had Mex and Can over a barrel; they can't afford to lose U.S. markets.

Also, he knew that the Chinese could circumvent tariffs by coming in through Canada. So, he fixed Mex/Can first, thus closing a loophole.

The Chinese are clever and may still find a way to get around the tariffs. But Trump's clever as well, and will nail them if they try.

They have been waiting, not willing to sit down and negotiate, because they're hoping he'll lose the Congress and be impeached. If they're wrong (and it's starting to look like he will not lose the Senate, at least) then they'll sit down eventually, but he'll make sure it's on our terms, not theirs.
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Old 01-30-2019, 01:09 PM
 
1,025 posts, read 972,833 times
Reputation: 1273
Quote:
Originally Posted by blisterpeanuts View Post
Foxconn is setting up a plant in the northern U.S., slightly smaller scale than they originally promised but nonetheless an interesting move.

Apple is repatriating hundreds of billions of dollars and moving some manufacturing to the U.S.

For the first time in many years, new steel plants are opening.

Intel opened a multi-billion dollar fab facility in Arizona.

All of the CEOs involved stated that they are consciously responding to the pro-business climate in the U.S.

I don't have time to round up all the statistics and information but the general trend is obviously toward increasing manufacturing activity in the U.S., not decreasing manufacturing.

Regarding buybacks -- you do understand that stock buybacks puts money in the hands of investors to reinvest into other ventures? It doesn't mean "greed" or "indulging shareholders". It means a company is strong enough to bolster its stock. More ownership means more control.
Revisiting your post in a less rosy perspective:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fo...ker-2019-01-30

I'm not sure why the administration didn't nail down assurances to how the stimulus was to be spent. US manufacturing changed trend, but it's just not coming back the way it was touted. As for buybacks...I hate them. Yes the shareholders are rewarded by a contracting share float (price goes up), but the majority shareholders are institutions and insiders. Meanwhile, they gain a larger piece of the pie and dilute the power of the vote by other shareholders. However, buybacks are in the mandate of publicly traded companies to do what's best in the interest of the company and shareholders. The companies that announced buybacks did exactly what they were suppose to do. Creating more jobs and business expansion would be foolish if the demand is not there.

I'm rather skeptical about the stimulus because I believe it adds to the deficit and overwhelmingly helps businesses that don't need the help (meanwhile I'll be paying about $2,800 more in federal taxes in 2018), it's one less arrow in the quiver should we need to stimulate the economy, and the drop in the stock market pretty much eliminated the 2018 gains. Shareholders lost. There was no capital appreciation from the stimulus and corporations have more control after accumulating and retiring the shares outstanding. I hope our leaders not only make better decisions in the future, but to also consider the unintended consequences.
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