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Old 10-12-2018, 04:03 PM
 
Location: El Pueblo de Nuestra Señora la Reina de los Ángeles del Río Porciúncula
13,562 posts, read 14,059,052 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BugsyPal View Post
But people like DT and his ilk know darn well inflation is a "tax"; hence the moves to index capital gains to adjust for same.
DT came out yesterday very critical of the Fed, and said they are raising the prime too quickly.

It was probably DT who was responsible for today's stock market happiness.
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Old 10-12-2018, 07:04 PM
 
18,288 posts, read 11,673,706 times
Reputation: 11926
Plenty of people have been spoiled, and or made good money off the prolonged period of near nil interest rates. Now that things are getting back to normal (which is all this really going on by the way), they are worried about FR taking the plate away.


Truth to tell DT and many others of his sort have not only had their snout but two front trotters in the trough. Well as that wise guy said "something that cannot go on forever, must stop".


Being a RE guy DT and is pals are likely very worried about rising interest rates, as they should.

Last edited by BugsyPal; 10-12-2018 at 08:14 PM..
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Old 10-12-2018, 07:52 PM
 
Location: El Pueblo de Nuestra Señora la Reina de los Ángeles del Río Porciúncula
13,562 posts, read 14,059,052 times
Reputation: 9673
Quote:
Originally Posted by BugsyPal View Post
Plenty of people have been spoiled, and or made good money off the prolonged period of near nil interest rates. Now that things are getting back to normal (which is all this really is by the way), they are worried about FR taking the plate away.

Truth to tell DT and many others of his sort have not only had their snout but two front trotters in the trough. Well as that wise guy said "something that cannot go on forever, must stop".

Being a RE guy DT and is pals are likely very worried about rising interest rates, as they should.
Most of your post is incomprehensible to me due to your code speak.

Trump is on the record criticizing the Fed and their aggressive prime rate increases.

I didn't understand a word about the rest of your post. Please skip the code speak and post in English.
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Old 10-12-2018, 07:55 PM
 
390 posts, read 116,293 times
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im going to be interested to see if we hit 6% by 2020. my friends are looking to buy, I bought last year at 3.25%. I got lucky, immediately following they jumped.
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Old 10-13-2018, 12:48 AM
 
736 posts, read 402,204 times
Reputation: 1102
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
You keep pointing to a weak dollar, but for example 2014 and 2015 saw surges in the strength of the dollar not seen in 40 years. It jumped like 14 percent in just the first few months of 15’.

And that was before Powell. I’m not sure why he’s some great savior.

Also I don’t think you know the laws of nature. We can’t prevent the seasons, or the tides...or the sun coming up. But according to you, the fed can hit the switch and deny...”nature” for nearly 20 years.

And you continue to point out 2001...there are many who put a lot of blame on Greenspan for not reigning in rates in the 90s when the economy was roaring. Why stop at 2001? That was basically the height of “irrational exuberance” when the markets were already considered to be in a huge bubble.
The Fed has stolen money from the future, from our kids and grandkids, to postpone or delay deflation. The BERNANKE FED did not FIX anything, it postponed something. It postponed the NECESSARY UNWIND of debt accumulation.

The economy is not FIXED. Look at the massive debt loads all around the world. That is not a FIXED economy.

Why stop at 2001? 2001 marked the end of economic expansion and growth. In 1983 the expansion begun again, right on time. We got the Reflation Period expansion from 1983 to 1992. Then we got the Inflation Stage similar to the 1956-1965 period, from 1992-2001. Then the inflation stoped; and the disinflation begun. The Fed lowered interest rates to the floor after the Nasdaq Crash and then helped to ignite the Housing Bubble that was an attempt to override the Deflation Cycle. The resulting debt orgy is the reason we are now faced with the most difficult economic landscape in the history of our nation - and the most troubled global economy landscape ever.

1983-2001 Inflation / 2001-PRESENT Deflation. We should have unloaded debt from 2001-PRESENT. Instead, we loaded up on more debt. Let's not pretend this is NOT the case.
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Old 10-13-2018, 01:00 AM
 
736 posts, read 402,204 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
Why just the other day, I offered a farmer a cart full of federal reserve notes, and he said “son, does it look like I need wall paper? Come back when you have some dabloons”
If you are a farmer you know the difference between the SEEDING SEASON and the HARVESTING SEASON. Because we are now all urban we think agrarian metaphors have been left behind. They have not been.

Every farmer understands the laws of nature. Gestation is a season (SEED TIME); Flowering is a season (Spring); Fruiting is a season (Summer); Harvesting and Death is a season (Autumn). No perpetual growth. Everything we ARE and produce and create intellectually is subject to these laws of Nature.

Nature has seasons. Man-in-Nature has seasons also. History also has seasons. We do not get to have Summer (heat, expansion, wealth,economic joy) perpetually. We are not children in a candy store.
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Old 10-13-2018, 01:09 AM
 
736 posts, read 402,204 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lovehound View Post
DT came out yesterday very critical of the Fed, and said they are raising the prime too quickly.

It was probably DT who was responsible for today's stock market happiness.
Of course, the President was critical of the Fed and wants lower interest rates. Happy consumers make for happy voters. But we must understand, we have had a crazy FED since 2001. Today's FED is the first responsible FED in decades. I applaud Mister Powell for putting America first.

THE FED needs to UNWIND the Fed's Balance Sheet. However high that takes interest rates, so be it.
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Old 10-13-2018, 01:26 AM
 
736 posts, read 402,204 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EDS_ View Post
That's too narrow. Inflation is a fairly serious "tax" on savers and cash-hoarders for sure. It's also part of the mechanism that facilitates dynamic expanding economies that reward investment. A zero inflation economy would suck terribly. A deflating economy would suck even worse.
Deflation is a necessary season in the economic cycle. Deflation is the necessary contraction phase, and helps to balance the excesses fueled by the principles and energies of expansion. Deflation modifies prices that have escalated during the expansion phase of the cycle.

NOTHING grows perpetually. Watch Nature. The FED should have slowly begin raising rates in 2001, and continued tightening slowly till now. This would have avoided our BUBBLE ECONOMY and the majestic accumulation of debt globally. The FED wanted to be the hero, and heroism assumes PERPETUAL GROWTH in the economy. So we have a huge FED GORGING BALANCE SHEET, which it is now deflating, UNWINDING. Don't judge the FED's GORGING as a success until the UNWINDING is completed and the Necessary Deflation Season is finally confronted.

To everything there is a season, a time to be long, a time to be short, a time for expansion, a time for contraction....
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Old 10-13-2018, 01:40 AM
 
736 posts, read 402,204 times
Reputation: 1102
Quote:
Originally Posted by BugsyPal View Post
Plenty of people have been spoiled, and or made good money off the prolonged period of near nil interest rates. Now that things are getting back to normal (which is all this really going on by the way), they are worried about FR taking the plate away.


Truth to tell DT and many others of his sort have not only had their snout but two front trotters in the trough. Well as that wise guy said "something that cannot go on forever, must stop".


Being a RE guy DT and is pals are likely very worried about rising interest rates, as they should.
The FED has been the problem. Now the FED is trying to make up for the 2001-2015 FED. The FED has been weakening the dollar for so many years to support the global markets that it has been almost euthanized. FED UNWIND is destroying Dollars in FED balance sheet, which strengthens the dollar.

Some people will argue that low interest rates are ALWAYS good. This is nonsense. High rates limit debt - and too much debt is bearish economically. High rates provide life-support for local currency, and support the SAVING CYCLE and save our banks. High rates force down prices of manufactured inflation bubbles, that force people to live in the streets and will eventually lead to civil war.

The markets are not everything. Our myopia for low-rates = stock gains misses many larger pictures, including inflated prices which are killing the world that has to pay for and does not own manufactured goods.
We NEED higher rates cyclically, even if they hurt stocks. We DEFINITELY need the FED unwind, not matter what it does to Global Markets - the Weak Dollar seeds the Global Economy; the Strong Dollar harvests the Global Economy - we need both -we need to develop a farmer's eye for understanding how nature works -- we are also nature.

One can make money in a BULL MARKET and in a BEAR MARKET. We will revitalize our economy only by lowering debt and lowering prices and the only way to do that is by deflating the global economy, which should grow cyclically and deflate cyclically. A FED that tries to FIX the system in the PERPETUAL GROWTH position is a mistake of hubris and unwise.
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Old 10-13-2018, 01:56 AM
 
64,675 posts, read 66,158,228 times
Reputation: 43102
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lovehound View Post
DT came out yesterday very critical of the Fed, and said they are raising the prime too quickly.

It was probably DT who was responsible for today's stock market happiness.
he said that about the fed weeks ago . yesterday was nothing new
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