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Old 10-14-2018, 10:34 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
5,260 posts, read 3,474,845 times
Reputation: 8829

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Quote:
Originally Posted by BugsyPal View Post
What did you expect DT and GOP to do regarding national debt?


Like Reagan and other republicans, giving away money via tax cuts is the easy part; reducing government spending and or raising revenue to pay for same is another matter.


No one seriously believed Mr. Ryan, DT and others when they said their tax "plan" would pay for itself and reduce the deficit. Nor did Mr. Ryan et al care IMHO; they got what they wanted and is the general GOP mantra, lower taxes on wealthy and or businesses/corporations.


When the stuff hits the fan, it is same ole, same ole; those who passed the tax cuts likely will be out of office leaving subsequent presidents and or Congress to clean up the mess. That and or (like Reagan) they will be dragged kicking and screaming to pass tax increases to undo the damage their reductions caused.


People need to face the fact because it is a fact neither political party can or will tackle the deficit. It just isn't in either of their interests since only way of doing so involves deep, painful and nasty but permanent cuts in areas both hold near and dear; military spending, Medicare/Social Security, Medicaid, SSI, and a few other areas of government spending.


Only times in recent memory that Washington has gotten serious about reducing national debt is when pressure was imposed on US government from the outside; to wit the bond markets. When T-Bill rates (in particular the long bonds) began inching up into high single or even double digits because the world was tired of lending cheap money to a spendthrift US government, there was finally action on debt reduction.


It was during these periods we got ideas like the "Balanced Budged Amendment", line item veto power for POTUS.


Gramm–Rudman–Hollings Balanced Budget Act was *supposed* to bring down deficits; but things haven't exactly worked out that way.
What we need to do to get the deficit under control is not even that painful, but it will be politically painful for whatever party tries to do it.

Social Security is the easy one. Raise the SS tax threshold to $150 or $200k beyond the current $112. Raise full retirement age to 69.5 for everyone 55 and younger, eliminate early payout.

Cut the military & defense spending about 2% per year for the next 15 years, that way you phase out slowly some of the job losses that military communities will suffer.

Health care reform would help a lot. Until health care costs are under control, Medicare/Medicaid spending will not be under control.
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Old 10-15-2018, 08:00 AM
 
27,817 posts, read 45,440,985 times
Reputation: 14299
Quote:
Originally Posted by EDS_ View Post
The problem is you so often layout a leftist perspective and then demand that other people clam up about politics.
I wasn't the one who put all the blame on Obama and forgot all that went before...
Never pretended to be anything but a liberal
I just don't pretend to have a selective memory...
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Old 10-15-2018, 11:25 AM
 
Location: Austin, Texas
1,465 posts, read 840,505 times
Reputation: 3068
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lovehound View Post
Then DT has been consistent. I value that in anybody, even presidents.
Meh.

Foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds.
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Old 10-15-2018, 11:33 AM
 
Location: Austin, Texas
1,465 posts, read 840,505 times
Reputation: 3068
Quote:
Originally Posted by Northern Maine Land Man View Post
"Chant by your campfire. Nothing is real."

(This was directed to the gadflies, not the four posters immediate before my post.)
To be fair, the chant did save us from Y2K, right?
Why shouldn't it work again for the currently anticipated TEOTWAWKI?

(turns back to fire and warms hands)
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Old 10-15-2018, 08:01 PM
 
18,638 posts, read 12,093,017 times
Reputation: 12239
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lovehound View Post
I'm giving DT and his Congress until 2020 to shape up or ship out.

I don't see how it's possible to have an intelligent conversation about national economics without discussing national politics too. However I think such talk should be the economic aspects of politics ONLY.

DT and Congress may not have the luxury of waiting until 2020: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1MP28I


Unless things change, and do so very soon DT's tax cuts are having same effects as Regan's; deficits are increasing as government is starving for revenue. Bond markets don't like that sort of thing, neither do stocks for that matter.


Meanwhile back at the ranch we've had *two* major hurricanes already this season that are going to call for massive aid to affected. Texas is *still* waiting for more aid from their disaster last year....


Inflation is rising which means indexed payments (Social Security, federal pensions, etc...) will be getting a boost as well.


Oh and in case anyone has forgotten USA is still fighting wars in Middle East and or otherwise militarily involved.


All this against the backdrop of DT's trade wars with China and others.
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Old 10-16-2018, 10:53 AM
 
4,576 posts, read 11,639,088 times
Reputation: 3108
The title of this thread should be....."Mortgage rates hit 5% and plateau"
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Old 10-16-2018, 02:35 PM
 
2,887 posts, read 1,611,035 times
Reputation: 2264
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lovehound View Post
I disagree about DT wanting to bed Pelosi (or God help us Maxine Waters).

Eeew, just eeew.
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Old 10-19-2018, 07:53 AM
 
1,172 posts, read 285,758 times
Reputation: 1662
Quote:
Originally Posted by C2BP View Post
Did it save us from deflation? Or was it just a stalling tactic Mathjack? Depression actually saves us from inflation (DEBT INFLATION is one form of inflation); and inflation save us from depression. Day and Night syndrome again. But resistance to Depression is understandable since we fear death and see in it LOSS instead of GAIN. Depression will cure us of DEBT. Then we will be able to start over, with a new life - not you and I personally, but our descendants. So we accept Depression and the suffering it brings to us personally so our children and our survivors can live without our karmic obligations.
.
I agree, and most Americans today are not willing to ever go through that period again. So we're gonna kick the can down the road until one generation gets left with nothing.
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Old 10-21-2018, 07:56 PM
 
18,638 posts, read 12,093,017 times
Reputation: 12239
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimtheGuy View Post
The title of this thread should be....."Mortgage rates hit 5% and plateau"


Oh I don't know; it really all depends on long bond (mostly ten year) yields.


Right now you have a federal reserve raising interest rates, *and* US treasury department flooding market with bonds to finance deficit spending. The latter is increasing at rapid rates thanks to DT/GOP tax cuts for the wealthy and businesses that is starving the treasury for revenue. Whatever bounce that so called tax "reform" provided is beginning to wane, and effects likely totally gone by sometime in 2019.


Meanwhile inflation though muted is rising, as it is wont to do when governments print money. Even if GOP retains their majorities in one or both houses of Congress (and even expands) they won't for a host of reasons make the serious cuts in spending needed to staunch the flow of red ink. That can only come by tackling the entitlement programs, military spending and a few other heavy drains on US treasury.


None of this begins to touch the other main issues facing US home market; prices are still too high for most looking to buy, and inventory in many areas is scarce.


High mortgage rates in of themselves aren't a bad thing. Our parents, grand parents or great-grand parents managed to buy when interest rates were twice or more than current rates. It is the sums borrowed that are more of an issue. This is where current high home prices are killing the market.
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Old 10-22-2018, 09:38 AM
 
7,194 posts, read 6,776,710 times
Reputation: 5434
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimtheGuy View Post
The title of this thread should be....."Mortgage rates hit 5% and plateau"
They are consolidating after a sharp move. The long bond etf TLT chart is nearly identical to the SPY.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tlt

What happens next will determine whether it was a plateau or a shelf.
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