U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
 
 
Old 10-07-2018, 12:00 PM
 
7,283 posts, read 8,116,246 times
Reputation: 5375

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by C2BP View Post
Lol, your economic understanding is poor at best.


More debt does not solve the problem of a society carrying too much debt. We did not do anything since 2001 EXCEPT lie and delay and protect a growing insolvency, to encourage MORE debt instead of less debt. We did almost everything wrong. Stimulus packages and lower interest rates will not achieve a renewed American economic might – just more debt for the taxpayer and more debt for the consumer.

The Global Economy died in 2001; died? No. Bad word. The Global Economy stopped expanding in 2001; culminated; reached its apex. Began to deflate.

The FED and the central banks tried to 'extend the expansion' and 'pretend' everything was fine for the next 17 years. QE was a disaster; and now the FED gets to atrophy, clearly part of the problem more than part of the solution. Instead of leading us through this Forest of Deflation, the FED has taken its role to be the protection of financial markets, or 'the wealth effect'. But protecting bad debt is the opposite of regeneration. It becomes the inhibitor of regeneration.

We need regeneration. This comes from facing reality; and from gearing down, tightening our collective belt, and becoming psychologically tough again. We are heading toward a fight. This is the way the world works; it's not always what we would like. Sometimes life is difficult. Sometimes we don't get what we want.

We need higher interest rates. We should have begun raising rates in 2001, slowly and steadily. Since there can be no economic growth during the Night-Cycle there is no point in forcing down interest rates. Well, there is a point. The point is to avoid revolutionary change. To protect the status quo. To keep things from changing.

Lower rates do not spur growth during Night-Cycles; lower rates are essentially welfare for the rich, allowing them to extend and pretend before having to face the truth that their company has failed, that their borrowing has become a threat to their survival. We still have a huge Default Season coming. Default Season can't be avoided, only postponed with trickery and manipulation.
Most of that is simply not worthy of response. Here are couple anyway.

A). The global economy did not begin to deflate in 2001 (World Bank and CIA World Factbook data).
*During that span in inflation adjusted terms world-wide GDP (GWP) is up 39.40%. In nominal terms roughly 275%.
*Y.O.Y. GWP increased between ~2.5% and ~5.2% every year since 2001 with the exception of 2009.

B). QE was a spectacular success. If nothing else QE gave the money center banks time and breathing room to work off negative value and very high risk assets.

So just stop with the lie that the world economy is in a deflationary spiral. It's not. If you have some legit contrary evidence post it.

____________________________

As an aside why do you seem to desire deflation?
Quick reply to this message

 
Old 10-07-2018, 12:58 PM
 
64,574 posts, read 66,100,109 times
Reputation: 42997
he has been posting the same rhetoric now for more than 2 years . the story line never changes . it's the fed's fault for everything . ......
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-07-2018, 01:02 PM
 
11,315 posts, read 5,839,816 times
Reputation: 20984
Quote:
Originally Posted by johngolf View Post
In the early to mid 80's, I was getting 11% on my CD's and paying 14% for my mortgage from the same bank.......LOL

My dad's math at the time was getting 11% on CDs and paying 5% for his mortgage with massively inflated dollars.


Today, the high COL places are largely decoupled from interest rates. You're not buying a home in Palo Alto with a 5% down FHA loan and using W-2 money to pay the mortgage. You're using your stock gains. You might opt to take a small-ish mortgage but you likely don't have to. That isn't necessarily the math elsewhere. People buy homes based on what the bank will allow them to borrow. As interest rates go up without salaries rising, the physics of the housing market means home prices are going to drop.


My house is paid for and I'll be retiring soon. The last thing I want is big real estate appreciation so my property taxes go up. When the tax base in my town rises, the town will figure out how to spend the windfall money and keep the tax rate the same. I'm not in California or Florida where tax hikes are limited.
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-07-2018, 01:05 PM
 
Location: USA
13,327 posts, read 7,290,471 times
Reputation: 9659
We had historically low interest rates for the past several years. TOO LOW. It was a sign of an unhealthy economy. Now the economy has improved, and rising rates are a sign of it. We have to watch inflation now. That's why the Fed is tightening.
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-07-2018, 02:01 PM
 
725 posts, read 399,195 times
Reputation: 1081
Quote:
Originally Posted by EDS_ View Post
Most of that is simply not worthy of response. Here are couple anyway.

A). The global economy did not begin to deflate in 2001 (World Bank and CIA World Factbook data).
*During that span in inflation adjusted terms world-wide GDP (GWP) is up 39.40%. In nominal terms roughly 275%.
*Y.O.Y. GWP increased between ~2.5% and ~5.2% every year since 2001 with the exception of 2009.

B). QE was a spectacular success. If nothing else QE gave the money center banks time and breathing room to work off negative value and very high risk assets.

So just stop with the lie that the world economy is in a deflationary spiral. It's not. If you have some legit contrary evidence post it.

____________________________

As an aside why do you seem to desire deflation?
Well, some of us understand that there is a Deflation Season that MUST be honored, no matter how painful for the status-quo - and that QE was the immoral transfer of wealth from the (relatively) poor taxpayers to the rich (the bankers mostly), in essence rewarding them for their stupidity and failure. The Debt Bubble was encouraged by bankers everywhere, including the two FED Chiefs in America, Greenspan and Bernanke. QE was a visionless denial of the truth: bad debt taken on in huge amounts at the end of the Business Cycle NEEDS TO BE DESTROYED. Taking on massive amounts of debt is stupid and shows a total lack of leadership, and a lack of philosophical understanding, a misguided naivety that expansions last for ever. Expansions do not last for ever.

We should have begun raising interest rates gently but persistently from 2001 till PRESENT. In this way we would have avoided much of the Debt Bubble catastrophe (that Bernanke embraced). We would have also begun a transfer of wealth from the elite few back to the mass of Americans in the form of investment in savings, which then becomes the launching pad of the next expansion.

Savings is the first stage fuel for the Growth Season or Economic Expansion; debt is the second stage fuel for the Growth Season or Economic Expansion - but then the debt must stop, and credit must become more expensive.

QE was not a great success, it was a disaster!!! The globalism that culminated in 2001 was spectacular; and one of the symbols of it's end was the attack on the World Trade Center (Twin Towers). 2001 signaled the end of the expansion; and the reverse beginning of the expansion of the powers of anti-matter whose job is to deconstruct the world we constructed in 1983-2001.

Our leaders did not understand that the expansion/inflation, the construction of the world, HAD TO END IN 2001. This is a law of nature. Our leaders were pretending it was March and we were on the verge of another Spring growth season. In 2008, we should have 'harvested the crop' and prepared for the Season of Deflation with higher interest rates. Instead that lunatic Ben Bernanke was following his own personal hero, a Japanese Finance Minister, Korekiyo Takahashi, who, in the 1930's, "saved" Japan from the global depression (for three years) by all the monetary ploys Bernanke began in America in 2008: QE, ZIRP, ULTBB (Unlimited Treasury Bond Buying)...which worked for three years, until Great Britain trumped the Japanese in India and China with currency debasement and tariffs to thwart the Japanese currency offensive. Then, as interest rates rose in Japan, Takahashi tried to cut government spending, including cutting military spendinng, alienated the military, who executed Takahashi, himself, hacked to death by swords, as well as the Prime Minister, Inukai Tsuyoshi, three months later, in May 1936.

Nothing in nature grows for ever. There is growth; and then there is rest, harvest, culmination; then there is decay, darkness and gestation. Without a dark period seeds cannot gestate properly. The Deflation Season is about 1) destruction of Bad Debt (toxic matter); 2) growth in savings and in currency strength; 3) preparation for the next growth cycle. Every new growth cycle is symbolized and characterized by a new technology that makes the growth possible.

We have been led to the slaughterhouse by a man (Bernanke) who proudly said in 2009: "We are sailing into uncharted territory now...!" Even John Maynard Keynes wouldn't approve profligate policies of Ben Bernanke and central banks all over the world. In 1917 Keynes agreed with Nicolai Lenin, the leader of the Russian communist revolution, that the best way to destroy capitalism was to "debauch" (devalue) the currency. Keynes defined inflation as the "government's confiscation of the wealth of its citizens secretly and (generally) unobserved..."

God Bless our new FED Chief Powell and the return of KING DOLLAR!!!!
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-07-2018, 02:12 PM
 
Location: Ohio
18,001 posts, read 13,238,246 times
Reputation: 13786
Quote:
Originally Posted by C2BP View Post
Oh boy.......I think the party may be over and a Housing Bubble 2.0 maybe in a trouble. Let's hope our new Fed Chief Powell will keep raising interest rates and make our currency stronger and stronger. Strong Dollar will deflate fake and overinflated home prices, will burst this bubble and destroy all speculators who will be stuck holding the bag.
A strong US Dollar has no bearing on housing prices.

Housing prices are a function of Supply & Demand, and in some US housing markets, and there are more than 1,500 housing markets in the US, the Demand for housing far exceeds the available Supply of housing, and that condition will persist indefinitely, because it is impossible to build single- and multi-family units fast enough to meet Demand.

Average home prices here are $129,000 and if your market is higher than that, then it's because population pressures have created Demand driving the prices up, not some conspiracy by the Federal Reserve.
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-07-2018, 02:22 PM
 
64,574 posts, read 66,100,109 times
Reputation: 42997
Come on Mircea , without blaming everything on the fed what would c2bp post about? Now you spoiled it with facts
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-07-2018, 02:57 PM
 
725 posts, read 399,195 times
Reputation: 1081
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
Come on Mircea , without blaming everything on the fed what would c2bp post about? Now you spoiled it with facts
Question for you Mathjack; except for boosting asset prices - benefiting the landlord class and Wall Street, protecting it from lower prices, which help the 99% - what other good did FED policies do for America? it hasn't done much for the American public by keeping housing costs elevated and making home ownership an impossible dream for many Americans, even with mortgage rates at almost nothing - bellow 5%, which is supposed to make housing affordable. No wonder more Americans are renting today than at any time in the last 50 years.

Quote:
More US households are headed by renters than at any point during the last five decades. For most, it's not their preference.
More U.S. households are renting than at any point in 50 years
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-07-2018, 03:01 PM
 
64,574 posts, read 66,100,109 times
Reputation: 42997
What good did the fed do? How about likely keeping us from living through the likes of the Great Depression or become a japan in a death spiral for starters.

There are many reasons renting is up . Including the fact many youngin’s have no interest in owning . Many change residences more frequently ,and the mere fact that marriages are taking place at older ages then prior generations. Plus there is low supply of quality housing available in affordable ranges. the desirable stuff gets snatched up fast . most areas ,especially cities where most of the population lives have no more room for houses .

But the fed does not set prices ,sellers and buyers do in any given area.

even we have little interest in buying . i have no reason to .

Last edited by mathjak107; 10-07-2018 at 03:11 PM..
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-07-2018, 03:23 PM
 
725 posts, read 399,195 times
Reputation: 1081
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
What good did the fed do? How about likely living through the likes of the Great Depression or become a japan in a death spiral for starters
But we need the cycle of deflation as much as we need the cycle of inflation. The crime that the American Ruling Class committed with their helmsman Mister Greenspan in 2001 was to curse the Night and to try to make believe it would not come if they merely pretended it wasn’t part of the reality.

The longer the inflation goes on, the more debt that is taken on, the longer will be the period of deflation during which that karmic and economic debt are unwound. In words that might appeal to the religious people here God is a banker and he gives us credit, packets of Light, if you will. But, in the contract we sign when we take on this loan from God we also are told that we will have to pay God back. Deflation is the nature of Humanity giving back energy to God.

The Darkness in Human Society – poverty, despair, hopelessness, tragedy – is the process by which Humanity is drawn back to God. ‘Falls off its high horse’ might be another way of expressing this metaphor.

I think you need to "get off your high horse" Mathjack. You think you are the "winner" in our society, successful and rich, but those people like you are usually the ones who are farthest from God. We look at the ‘winners’ in our society, and what do we see? We see – along with mansions, expensive cars, glamorous vacations and sophisticated friends and entertainment -divorce, addiction, crime, perversion, excess, loneliness, often early death, sometimes suicide. The ‘winners’ in human society, the rich, the powerful, the famous, are often ‘the losers’ before God calls them home again. The ‘winners’ are Icarus before he falls. The ‘losers’ are Icarus before he flies.

Psychological or Spiritual Deflation is the means by which God throws a human being to his knees. Economic Deflation is the means by which God throws a society to its collective knees. Do you have any idea how important DEFLATION season is and why it's build into our system? We need DEFLATION SEASON as much as we need INFLATION SEASON. Are you able to understand that? I think most of you are simply brainwashed my the mainstream media and only understand CNBC or Bloomberg economics.
Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


 

Quick Reply
Message:
Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2018, Advameg, Inc.

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top