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Old 10-11-2018, 09:00 PM
 
7,279 posts, read 8,112,371 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rodentraiser View Post
Isn't pay at all time lows, too? And aren't the vast majority of new jobs in the service and minimum wage sector?

For most Americans, real wages have barely budged for decades | Pew Research Center

"On the face of it, these should be heady times for American workers. U.S. unemployment is as low as it’s been in nearly two decades (3.9% as of July) and the nation’s private-sector employers have been adding jobs for 101 straight months – 19.5 million since the Great Recession-related cuts finally abated in early 2010, and 1.5 million just since the beginning of the year.

But despite the strong labor market, wage growth has lagged economists' expectations. In fact, despite some ups and downs over the past several decades, today’s real average wage (that is, the wage after accounting for inflation) has about the same purchasing power it did 40 years ago. And what wage gains there have been have mostly flowed to the highest-paid tier of workers."

"
In fact, in real terms average hourly earnings peaked more than 45 years ago: The $4.03-an-hour rate recorded in January 1973 had the same purchasing power that $23.68 would today."



https://www.infoplease.com/business-...ates-1955-2015


https://inequality.org/research/minimum-wage/

"Yes, had the US income distribution and US standards of decency remained exactly what it was in 1968, the minimum wage would now be $21.16 per hour.

I grew up on the idea that America stood for progress, continual progress toward a better society. Even a $21.16 minimum wage wouldn’t represent progress. It would mean socially standing still, just with better technology and higher productivity levels. Progress would mean a minimum wage in excess of $21.16 per hour."

1. No. Pay is not at all time lows or even close.
2. Point to point time horizon wage analysis that does not account for the massive increases in non-wage compensation and huge increases in direct and in-kind gov't. benefits that many workers receive is incomplete at best, dishonest at worst.
3. A broadly applied $21.16 hr. minimum wage is unthinkable.
4. We've known for decades - heck I remember my 3rd grade teacher Mrs. Hines talking about this in 1972 - that the era of low skilled workers doing well was coming to an end........it's the fault of individuals if they did nothing to prepare.
5. Real progress would be more kids trying in school and more people understanding that a successful life is up to them not the .gov.
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Old 10-12-2018, 12:48 PM
 
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, originally from SF Bay Area
28,382 posts, read 50,562,503 times
Reputation: 28610
Quote:
Originally Posted by EDS_ View Post
1. No. Pay is not at all time lows or even close.
2. Point to point time horizon wage analysis that does not account for the massive increases in non-wage compensation and huge increases in direct and in-kind gov't. benefits that many workers receive is incomplete at best, dishonest at worst.
3. A broadly applied $21.16 hr. minimum wage is unthinkable.
4. We've known for decades - heck I remember my 3rd grade teacher Mrs. Hines talking about this in 1972 - that the era of low skilled workers doing well was coming to an end........it's the fault of individuals if they did nothing to prepare.
5. Real progress would be more kids trying in school and more people understanding that a successful life is up to them not the .gov.
My wife works at a school and didn't get a raise for several years during and after the recession, but did after that, and just recently got a nice one. I have gotten a raise every year since starting here in 2009. I can say the same for everyone I know, friends and relatives that have mentioned it. Despite the low jobless rate some are still not working, or are underemployed, or complaining of no raises. No matter how well the economy is going, there will always be those without the skills for a family wage job, some of those will refuse to accept minimum wage job, others may not even get those due to problems competing with others for them. So the bottom line is that a certain number of people will always struggle to keep up with the cost of living.
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Old 10-12-2018, 02:23 PM
 
382 posts, read 76,130 times
Reputation: 831
Quote:
Originally Posted by the tiger View Post
Sound good but for centuries every boom creates a bust.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-une...969-1538742766
This jobless rate is nonsense. If it was so difficult to get employees because the labor pool of talent is so small, then wages would be going up dramatically and they are not. Is anyone being offered a 20% increase to leave their current job to move to another company? Not with any sort of frequency. This white house administration is playing games with the numbers, and actual experience of job seekers doesn't mesh with these numbers.
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Old 10-13-2018, 08:15 AM
 
4,708 posts, read 2,251,841 times
Reputation: 8692
Quote:
Originally Posted by rummage View Post
This white house administration is playing games with the numbers
Love it. That makes at how many administrations in a row where posters in here are sayings BLS statisticians who have worked through several administrations are playing games with the numbers.

Basically every POTUS somehow communicates a directive to the thousands of employees at huge government agencies BLS, Census, etc. to fudge the numbers and lie for them. Yet somehow all these thousands of folks in a government that has trouble keeping any secret keep it all secret. Even though so many are now retired it's still a secret. This happens for decade after decade. None of these thousands of employees has any political leanings, they just say "ok" and commit fraud even if it goes counter to their own political leanings. None of the many communications needed to convince everyone to lie for whatever president can be found in an email system, it's just word of mouth all hush hush.

Seriously?
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Old 10-13-2018, 05:04 PM
 
Location: Washington state
4,679 posts, read 2,296,137 times
Reputation: 13618
Quote:
Originally Posted by EDS_ View Post
1. No. Pay is not at all time lows or even close.
2. Point to point time horizon wage analysis that does not account for the massive increases in non-wage compensation and huge increases in direct and in-kind gov't. benefits that many workers receive is incomplete at best, dishonest at worst.
3. A broadly applied $21.16 hr. minimum wage is unthinkable.
4. We've known for decades - heck I remember my 3rd grade teacher Mrs. Hines talking about this in 1972 - that the era of low skilled workers doing well was coming to an end........it's the fault of individuals if they did nothing to prepare.
5. Real progress would be more kids trying in school and more people understanding that a successful life is up to them not the .gov.
When every expert and economist is telling you that real wages are flat, have been flat for decades, why are you still insisting that that should be the norm?

Why is a minimum wage at $21.16 an hour so unthinkable? That minimum wage, in 1968 dollars, was doable back in the 60s and we didn't have the poverty rate or the number of homeless that we do now. More people were able to go to college (which cost much less then) and more people owned homes then. Those are the things that happen when people earn real wages when compared to the economy.

What you are forgetting is that there are not enough high wage jobs out there for everyone, no matter what your 3rd grade teacher told you. If everyone were to go to college and get a degree for a high wage job, half of them would still be unemployed. At that point, you wouldn't have any high wage jobs anymore because the glut of employees would drive down the wages. How would you like to work as an engineer for $15,000 a year, provided that you got the job after spending thousands and thousands of dollars on a college degree for it?

In addition, we still need the people to do the lower wage jobs that have always been necessary in a society. Basically, what you're saying is that you'd prefer people to either get credentials to do high wage work and drive wages down for everyone or you'd rather keep low wage workers in low wage jobs and you don't care if they can't make a decent living, which means you don't think those people are worth jack.

All I can say is if this is your attitude, then you and others like you better get used to paying more taxes for government social services and to seeing many more homeless people around you.

I wasn't homeless in 1975 because I could afford to rent a one-bedroom apartment on the minimum wage job of $2 an hour. In California. Today I couldn't find a one-bedroom apartment in an area of 12 states that I could rent while being paid $7.25 an hour.
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Old 10-13-2018, 05:50 PM
 
64,524 posts, read 66,075,955 times
Reputation: 42970
minimum wage in 1968 was 1.60 . that is 11.59 today, not 21.00 bucks

a 2.00 minimum wage in 1975 is 10 bucks today . our minimum wage in ny is 10.40
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Old 10-13-2018, 06:08 PM
 
24,692 posts, read 26,777,106 times
Reputation: 22704
Quote:
Originally Posted by SWFL_Native View Post
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000



Here is the BLS labor participation rate trend. We peaked in the mid-late 90's at 67.5% and have regressed since. Since 2010 we have fallen 2.5%. So any un-employment rate movement must be viewed in conjunction with employment/participation data as well.
Yes, I definitely agree with that. But we do have an aging population; so a significant part of the drop in the employment rate is related to the Boomers retiring. That said, I do think unemployment is worse than the official rate would indicate.
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Old 10-13-2018, 06:15 PM
 
24,692 posts, read 26,777,106 times
Reputation: 22704
Quote:
Originally Posted by EDS_ View Post
That's pretty darned good post.

My point was years ago no one would have predicted a bull market running for 10 years and U3 less than 4 at this point. No one.
That's true. But, unfortunately, it's being propped up by an overly large government deficit, which is not sustainable.
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Old 10-13-2018, 06:20 PM
 
24,692 posts, read 26,777,106 times
Reputation: 22704
Quote:
Originally Posted by rodentraiser View Post
Why is a minimum wage at $21.16 an hour so unthinkable?
Mathjak rightly called BS on this statement. And 1968 was the high water mark for the purchasing power of the minimum wage.

1968 minimum wage would be $11.64 in 2018 dollars.

https://www.dollartimes.com/inflatio...s-minimum-wage
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Old 10-14-2018, 10:41 AM
 
7,279 posts, read 8,112,371 times
Reputation: 5366
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemlock140 View Post
My wife works at a school and didn't get a raise for several years during and after the recession, but did after that, and just recently got a nice one. I have gotten a raise every year since starting here in 2009. I can say the same for everyone I know, friends and relatives that have mentioned it. Despite the low jobless rate some are still not working, or are underemployed, or complaining of no raises. No matter how well the economy is going, there will always be those without the skills for a family wage job, some of those will refuse to accept minimum wage job, others may not even get those due to problems competing with others for them. So the bottom line is that a certain number of people will always struggle to keep up with the cost of living.
Agreed good post.
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