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Old 10-11-2018, 12:41 PM
 
3,538 posts, read 1,988,790 times
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We certainly are due but it's not all just supported by speculation/guessing/conjecture:

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/...g-through-2018



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Old 10-11-2018, 05:57 PM
 
Location: Outside US
449 posts, read 197,362 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eliza61nyc View Post
lol, calling what? a recession? not really a hard call because it usually follows some time after a long bull market. Sort of saying stocks will lose money. if there is only two choices it's not a hard call. Or are you calling the exact time period?
I agree with you eliza,

I hear your point.

Part of the reason for this thread is b/c a lot of people (or more accurately some) have been telling me that 'the economy will go up and up and up.' They are short-sighted, have bad memories and can't understand the concept of cycles.
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Old 10-11-2018, 06:07 PM
 
Location: Outside US
449 posts, read 197,362 times
Reputation: 537
Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
You're really gonna stick your neck out there and say we'll have higher unemployment in 2020 than the current once-in-a-generation lowest in decades unemployment numbers?

Crazy dude. Boldness off the charts.
U3 will go up IMO, but it won't be as high (9-10%) as during the "Great Recession."
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Old 10-11-2018, 06:09 PM
 
Location: Outside US
449 posts, read 197,362 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EDS_ View Post
*If I were pegging a time I'd say late Q4 2019. As this rally has been rolling along for so long I'm a little worried that some otherwise mild shock may catalyze recession sooner.

*FWIIW - The Business Cycle Dating Committee at the NBER defines recession like this........."a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." Nearly all last at least 2 quarters but some in the past have not. A couple have seen declines in two of three quarters. Point being the two consecutive quarters thing isn't technically correct in the US.
Thank you for this NBER definition.

It's better than the old-school "textbook definition."
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Old 10-11-2018, 06:10 PM
 
Location: Outside US
449 posts, read 197,362 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by USNRET04 View Post
Mid to late 2020 would fit in with the presidential election cycle.
By coincidence, IMO.
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Old 10-11-2018, 06:22 PM
 
4,720 posts, read 2,255,657 times
Reputation: 8734
Quote:
Originally Posted by Returning2USA View Post
Part of the reason for this thread is b/c a lot of people (or more accurately some) have been telling me that 'the economy will go up and up and up.' They are short-sighted, have bad memories and can't understand the concept of cycles.
Who?

I occasionally see references to these mysterious posters who believe there are never bears/corrections/recessions and it seems they are often pointed out as the reason we need to stay grounded in our thinking, but I've yet to actually encounter anyone on this forum who believes such absurdity. It's almost like they are some boogeyman who's stories make children behave.

I'd love to see examples of these many posters.
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Old 10-11-2018, 08:06 PM
 
7,283 posts, read 8,116,246 times
Reputation: 5375
Quote:
Originally Posted by SWFL_Native View Post
We certainly are due but it's not all just supported by speculation/guessing/conjecture:

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/...g-through-2018



The next LEI series from The NBER will be released next Thursday IIRC. It'll be interesting.
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Old 10-11-2018, 11:29 PM
 
Location: Outside US
449 posts, read 197,362 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
Who?

I occasionally see references to these mysterious posters who believe there are never bears/corrections/recessions and it seems they are often pointed out as the reason we need to stay grounded in our thinking, but I've yet to actually encounter anyone on this forum who believes such absurdity. It's almost like they are some boogeyman who's stories make children behave.

I'd love to see examples of these many posters.
They don't post here.

They are some relatives and other people I know.

These are not tbe majority, they are sooooo myopic. It's just a bad thought process.
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Old 10-12-2018, 04:11 AM
 
4,318 posts, read 5,268,236 times
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Recessions can also provide enormous opportunity for those with cash on the sidelines. No bull market can last forever but everyone knows the economy moves in cycles and where others have difficulties, the right investors can find great opportunities.
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Old 10-12-2018, 06:16 AM
 
Location: Outside US
449 posts, read 197,362 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JonathanLB View Post
Recessions can also provide enormous opportunity for those with cash on the sidelines.
Yes, this is when Cash is King.
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