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Old 10-12-2018, 07:34 AM
 
Location: Proxima Centauri
3,754 posts, read 1,592,841 times
Reputation: 4147

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Returning2USA View Post
I'm calling it now.

Worth noting (and I may get bashed) but it may not be a textbook definition of 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth but we'll see higher unemployment, under-employment, more defaults on the typical debts, higher interest rates, and using savings to live.

Housing very high in many places, bad health care system, financial markets very high for a long time, a job market with stagnant and declining wages.

Source: basic economic articles.

If you agree or disagree, please discuss.

I won't be bashing you on this. In fact I agree. Guggenheim Investments began predicting a recession for 19 into 20 two months ago. The treasury yield curve is almost flat and the stock market just fell 1500 points. Good call.



Hopefully you are out of the market by now.
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Old 10-12-2018, 10:22 AM
 
Location: Montco PA
696 posts, read 1,203,990 times
Reputation: 458
If anyone accurately predicted the next recession they'd be rich or better. We were supposed to be in a recession already according to some "experts". Technically we were in one over 2 years ago. https://upfina.com/2016-was-a-recession/

Not saying we won't or will get one by then, but it's not certain it'll be a depression or as bad as 2008.

Wage growth hit 2.9, the highest it's been since 2009. It can continue if illegal immigration has been fully addressed and the factory jobs(which pay well above the minimum wage) continue to increase.
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Old 10-12-2018, 11:01 AM
 
7,283 posts, read 8,116,246 times
Reputation: 5375
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marv95 View Post
If anyone accurately predicted the next recession they'd be rich or better. We were supposed to be in a recession already according to some "experts". Technically we were in one over 2 years ago. https://upfina.com/2016-was-a-recession/

Not saying we won't or will get one by then, but it's not certain it'll be a depression or as bad as 2008.

Wage growth hit 2.9, the highest it's been since 2009. It can continue if illegal immigration has been fully addressed and the factory jobs(which pay well above the minimum wage) continue to increase.
We were not technically in recession two years ago. A few people saying so does not count.

ETA - Here's a list of all recessions since 1850.
http://www.nber.org/cycles.html

Last edited by EDS_; 10-12-2018 at 11:29 AM..
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Old 10-12-2018, 11:03 AM
 
7,283 posts, read 8,116,246 times
Reputation: 5375
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonyafd View Post
I won't be bashing you on this. In fact I agree. Guggenheim Investments began predicting a recession for 19 into 20 two months ago. The treasury yield curve is almost flat and the stock market just fell 1500 points. Good call.



Hopefully you are out of the market by now.
You know getting in and out of markets is a near guaranteed way to leave lots of wealth on the table.
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Old 10-12-2018, 12:07 PM
 
Location: El Pueblo de Nuestra Señora la Reina de los Ángeles del Río Porciúncula
13,547 posts, read 14,044,894 times
Reputation: 9663
There seems to be a mindset that good times have a set limit in duration. I see good times as going to continue until emerging events kill them. You can't predict the killing events.
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Old 10-12-2018, 02:54 PM
 
Location: Paranoid State
12,682 posts, read 9,425,981 times
Reputation: 14933
Quote:
Originally Posted by Returning2USA View Post
I'm calling it now.

Worth noting (and I may get bashed) but it may not be a textbook definition of 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth but we'll see higher unemployment, under-employment, more defaults on the typical debts, higher interest rates, and using savings to live.

Housing very high in many places, bad health care system, financial markets very high for a long time, a job market with stagnant and declining wages.

Source: basic economic articles.

If you agree or disagree, please discuss.
Well, if the Democrats regain control of the House and/or the Senate during the forthcoming Mid-Term elections, you could well be right.
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Old 10-12-2018, 02:58 PM
 
Location: El Pueblo de Nuestra Señora la Reina de los Ángeles del Río Porciúncula
13,547 posts, read 14,044,894 times
Reputation: 9663
Quote:
Originally Posted by SportyandMisty View Post
Well, if the Democrats regain control of the House and/or the Senate during the forthcoming Mid-Term elections, you could well be right.
I always hedge my predictions based upon no change of administration until 2020 at earliest. I see the economy as inexorably linked to politics. Sadly, politics has become totally crazy the last few years

It appears that Democrats want the economy to fail in order to gain power. DT's success is in the way of their thirst for control.
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Old 10-12-2018, 06:51 PM
 
1,461 posts, read 331,260 times
Reputation: 1667
Quote:
Originally Posted by Returning2USA View Post
I'm calling it now.

Worth noting (and I may get bashed) but it may not be a textbook definition of 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth but we'll see higher unemployment, under-employment, more defaults on the typical debts, higher interest rates, and using savings to live.

Housing very high in many places, bad health care system, financial markets very high for a long time, a job market with stagnant and declining wages.

Source: basic economic articles.

If you agree or disagree, please discuss.
As humans, we push limits, leverage what we can while riding waves that temporarily magnify our income and thus purchasing power, crash with those waves as what's unsustainable consumes us, and roll with the tide as we're brought back to shore. The view is amazing from that tall wave, though. And we swim right back out as soon as the water is no longer pushing us inland.

We forget, however, that at least on the east coast, the magnificent sunset on the horizon is inland, why are we trying to swim away from it?

Market prices are nothing more than one idiot outbidding the other because he wants it more and has the resources to do so. I've said in a previous thread, many moons ago, that bidding a $500K house to $1M doesn't bring it any closer to the water or add a 5th bedroom. As property taxes rise proportionate to the assessed value, or as I call it, the permanent idiot tax, it prompts homeowners to rethink staying another year and will spike growth in the suburbs and so-called exurbs.

Despite how smart or prepared or shrewd any one individual can be, so many more comprise the bulk of civilization that DOES respond to online articles, television, and the town crier.
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Old 10-12-2018, 10:29 PM
 
Location: Outside US
449 posts, read 197,362 times
Reputation: 537
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonyafd View Post
I won't be bashing you on this. In fact I agree. Guggenheim Investments began predicting a recession for 19 into 20 two months ago. The treasury yield curve is almost flat and the stock market just fell 1500 points. Good call.



Hopefully you are out of the market by now.
Cheers, Tony.

The US Financial Markets have been too high for too long and a lot of the recent upward movement has been because of optimism - which is not a good thing. (I remember the late 90s when most people did not have stop-loss accounts and paid the price). But those that rode that bubble and got out before the turn set themselves up well.

I've had long funds in Vanguard, T. Row Price and Nueberger. Old IRAs and some regular mutual funds.

Sold some stock a long time ago. (Not my thing.)

I've been just putting cash in the bank and waiting for a dip to buy more into the Vanguard Stock Market Index Fund.

I'm not very savvy in investing but I know the basics.
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Old 10-12-2018, 10:30 PM
 
Location: Outside US
449 posts, read 197,362 times
Reputation: 537
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marv95 View Post

Not saying we won't or will get one by then, but it's not certain it'll be a depression or as bad as 2008.
Yeah, I see it the same way, Marv.
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