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Old 10-12-2018, 10:32 PM
 
Location: Outside US
449 posts, read 197,362 times
Reputation: 537

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Quote:
Originally Posted by EDS_ View Post
You know getting in and out of markets is a near guaranteed way to leave lots of wealth on the table.
Yes, those that try to "time" the market often lose.
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Old 10-12-2018, 10:34 PM
 
Location: Outside US
449 posts, read 197,362 times
Reputation: 537
Quote:
Originally Posted by SportyandMisty View Post
Well, if the Democrats regain control of the House and/or the Senate during the forthcoming Mid-Term elections, you could well be right.
Yeah, Sport & Mist,

The party out of the Executive almost always gains seats and in this cycle:

As we know (or assume from the polling data) the House will go to the Dems and the Senate is in play with the Senate races in TX and AZ being tight.
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Old 10-13-2018, 09:10 AM
 
Location: El Pueblo de Nuestra Señora la Reina de los Ángeles del Río Porciúncula
13,547 posts, read 14,044,894 times
Reputation: 9663
This whole mid-term cycle is crazy, fueled by rabid hate for DT and psycho mob behavior by the opposition.

You cannot assume anything about the mid-term election. We won't know what happened until polls start closing.

If you can call this mid-term you are surely smart enough to make $100,000,000 profit by various long and short positions in your investing.

IMO there is no way to call this mid-term based upon statistical figures from previous mid-terms. This will be the one to break the mold.
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Old 10-13-2018, 11:46 AM
 
5,600 posts, read 4,206,197 times
Reputation: 10562
Quote:
Originally Posted by Returning2USA View Post
I'm calling it now.

Worth noting (and I may get bashed) but it may not be a textbook definition of 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth but we'll see higher unemployment, under-employment, more defaults on the typical debts, higher interest rates, and using savings to live.

Housing very high in many places, bad health care system, financial markets very high for a long time, a job market with stagnant and declining wages.

Source: basic economic articles.

If you agree or disagree, please discuss.
Just plain nonsense arguments....and your unspecified "articles" are not helpful either.

  • Housing prices are low or moderate in much of the country. Seattle, San Fran and a handful of urban areas are exceptions. The reason for the high prices there is simple supply and demand. Supply is limited and there are plenty of people with the money to buy.
  • Healthcare is expensive and needs some brakes but it is certainly not "bad". The issues remaining are access by the poor and again, costs. Reducing costs will mean reducing services. Few are willing to make that choice. The highest costs are often in the last few months for patients who are dying. Obama brought this up and quickly retreated when he received instant pushback.
  • Stagnant and declining wages. Again nonsense. There are millions of well paid jobs available. The issue is education. The value of jobs for those with limited education and skills have dropped and will continue to drop. NY State recently made college education free to those with moderate to low incomes and it is inexpensive for the rest. More similar initiatives are coming but it is still up to the individual to make some effort to succeed.
  • High financial markets. That is anything but clear. Prices that are higher than the previous norms reflect faith in the economy and businesses, growing corporate profits and lack of good alternative investments.
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Old 10-13-2018, 12:58 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
349 posts, read 49,957 times
Reputation: 209
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonyafd View Post
I won't be bashing you on this. In fact I agree. Guggenheim Investments began predicting a recession for 19 into 20 two months ago. The treasury yield curve is almost flat and the stock market just fell 1500 points. Good call.



Hopefully you are out of the market by now.
Fellow Tony!

I’ve never been a market “timer” until this week. I bailed 90+% outta the market this week. Trump’s Tariffs are the main reason. I am/was 100% in tech. I’ve chosen to sit it out until/unless this trade war w/China settles. Techs are obviously reliant on China for manufacturing and revenue.
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Old 10-13-2018, 04:33 PM
 
Location: Ohio
18,007 posts, read 13,238,246 times
Reputation: 13786
Quote:
Originally Posted by Returning2USA View Post
I'm calling it now.

Worth noting (and I may get bashed) but it may not be a textbook definition of 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth but we'll see higher unemployment, under-employment, more defaults on the typical debts, higher interest rates, and using savings to live.

Housing very high in many places, bad health care system, financial markets very high for a long time, a job market with stagnant and declining wages.

Source: basic economic articles.

If you agree or disagree, please discuss.
Wages are not stagnant nor are they declining.

The Social Security Administration recently published the 2017 Wage Index. It represents a 3.8% growth in average wages over 2016. Wages haven been increasing. When Monetary Inflation exists, wages always rise. When Demand-pull Inflation exists, wages are not supposed to rise, because the single sole purpose of Demand-pull Inflation is to force consumers to stop consuming goods and services to prevent the depletion, over-use or over-consumption of resources, goods and services. So if Demand-pull Inflation stops you from consuming a good or service, that's a good thing, not a bad thing. If you don't like it, then find a substitute or invest your money and time to increase Supply to match Demand.

The fact that housing is high in a handful of the more than 1,500 housing markets is totally irrelevant. Housing prices are a function of Supply & Demand. In those handful of markets where housing prices are high, it is simply impossible to build single- or multi-family units fast enough so that the rate of increase of Supply offsets the rate of increase of Demand. Only when the rate of Demand decreases, and that will take a decade or more, will housing prices stabilize or start to decline.

Obviously, you're not educated enough to understand the difference between Monetary Inflation and Demand-pull Inflation.

The healthcare system has zero impact on the economy. Stock markets cannot cause a recession or end one. Again, you don't have the education to understand that the stock market has set and broken record highs during recessions, nor do you understand that the stock market has collapsed while the economy chugged along at 2.5% to 12.% GDP growth each quarter during the stock market collapse.

You can dismiss anyone as ill-informed who even thinks there's a relationship between stocks and recessions.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Returning2USA View Post
Part of the reason for this thread is b/c a lot of people (or more accurately some) have been telling me that 'the economy will go up and up and up.' They are short-sighted, have bad memories and can't understand the concept of cycles.
Did it ever occur to you that cycles exist only because they are imposed by internal or external sources?

Business expansion doesn't naturally end of its own accord. There's always an internal or external factor that brings business expansion to a halt. Early on, several recessions were caused by structural unemployment due to the rapid implementation of technology and a change in manufacturing methods. Neither situation will happen again. While many lament automation, its implementation will be so slow as to be imperceptible, and not cause structural unemployment. And there won't be any change in manufacturing methods, because there's nothing to change to.

Capital reallocation has caused a number of recessions. When Capital is reallocated, industries are abandoned or reduced, or there is an actual physical relocation of Capital from one region or area to another region or area.

The Federal Reserve has caused three recessions through its policies, namely interest rate hikes, and there's a 99% chance it will cause the next recession. Higher interest rates make continued business operations more costly, and increases the cost of expansion.

The number of working Americans jumped from 155,539,000 in August to 156,191,000 in September, an increase of 652,000 workers, so it's not like tariffs are causing job losses.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonyafd View Post
The treasury yield curve is almost flat and the stock market just fell 1500 points. Good call.

Hopefully you are out of the market by now.
The stock market is irrelevant.
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Old 10-13-2018, 05:34 PM
 
Location: El Pueblo de Nuestra Señora la Reina de los Ángeles del Río Porciúncula
13,547 posts, read 14,044,894 times
Reputation: 9663
T-bills have been increasing yields since the last presidential election.
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Old 10-13-2018, 08:29 PM
 
1,461 posts, read 331,260 times
Reputation: 1667
Quote:
Originally Posted by Returning2USA View Post
Yes, those that try to "time" the market often lose.
For those "timing" the market with the market, yes.

By the time you notice a trend, it's too late.
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Old 10-13-2018, 10:53 PM
 
Location: Buckeye, AZ
25,405 posts, read 14,492,810 times
Reputation: 9210
Quote:
Originally Posted by Returning2USA View Post
I agree with you eliza,

I hear your point.

Part of the reason for this thread is b/c a lot of people (or more accurately some) have been telling me that 'the economy will go up and up and up.' They are short-sighted, have bad memories and can't understand the concept of cycles.
Really, that is interesting. I think it is mostly from supporters of a certain political figure in all honesty... Since I've been on C-D, I have actually heard of predictions of U.S. entering another recession for a while now and many said one should have happened by now. I'm sure we are due for one especially with current economic policies should potential deals go south. Due to the recovery to the last recession, I think it is why we are actually late for one based on typical economic cycles. Now I don't think it will be a big one, but one is coming.
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Old 10-13-2018, 11:02 PM
 
Location: El Pueblo de Nuestra Señora la Reina de los Ángeles del Río Porciúncula
13,547 posts, read 14,044,894 times
Reputation: 9663
You people should start predicting California’s next earthquake.
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