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Old 10-14-2018, 03:09 AM
 
Location: Outside US
451 posts, read 197,362 times
Reputation: 537

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
Wages are not stagnant nor are they declining.
For many industries, they are. Not all, but many.

Quote:
Obviously, you're not educated enough to understand the difference between Monetary Inflation and Demand-pull Inflation.
I appreciate you being direct.

No I don't know these terms nor the difference but I will start reading.

Educated in economics? No, not as much as you, but I'm willing to learn more and read more.

I only took Macro and Micro Econ in my undergrad studies and none in Graduate School.

Again, I'm willing to learn.

Quote:
The healthcare system has zero impact on the economy.
"zero impact" is an absolute term.

Medical care is one pieces of many in a puzzle that is weakening (medicare, and rising insurance rates for people).

Quote:
The Federal Reserve has caused three recessions through its policies, namely interest rate hikes, and there's a 99% chance it will cause the next recession.
I noted rising interest rates.

Quote:
The stock market is irrelevant.
Psychologically, it's a piece of the puzzle.


I appreciate your response Mircea, and as I noted, I'm willing to learn.

I'm still calling a Recession in (or around) Oct., 2020.
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Old 10-14-2018, 03:11 AM
 
Location: Outside US
451 posts, read 197,362 times
Reputation: 537
Quote:
Originally Posted by jrkliny View Post
Just plain nonsense arguments....and your unspecified "articles" are not helpful either
Fair enough.

I didn't note nor put link up to articles because I read lots of them per day.

I will add articles to this thread in the future (if it has legs).
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Old 10-14-2018, 03:13 AM
 
Location: Outside US
451 posts, read 197,362 times
Reputation: 537
Quote:
Originally Posted by mkpunk View Post
Really, that is interesting. I think it is mostly from supporters of a certain political figure in all honesty...
Most but not all, are these folks you note.

It reminds me of the Tech Stock market bubble of the late 90s and the following housing lending/borrowing NINA, NINJA deniers in the 2000s.
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Old 10-14-2018, 06:21 AM
 
Location: Proxima Centauri
3,754 posts, read 1,592,841 times
Reputation: 4147
Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
You're really gonna stick your neck out there and say we'll have higher unemployment in 2020 than the current once-in-a-generation lowest in decades unemployment numbers?

Crazy dude. Boldness off the charts.

Guggenheim Investments agrees with the forecast by the OP. Fidelity says that we are in the fourth and final stage of the bull market. The yield curve is almost flat. The leading economic indicators are still showing robust growth. This can quickly change if interest rates are raised to contain inflation.



I agree with the OP.
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Old 10-14-2018, 08:53 AM
 
Location: Outside US
451 posts, read 197,362 times
Reputation: 537
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonyafd View Post
Guggenheim Investments agrees with the forecast by the OP. Fidelity says that we are in the fourth and final stage of the bull market. The yield curve is almost flat. The leading economic indicators are still showing robust growth. This can quickly change if interest rates are raised to contain inflation.

I agree with the OP.
Thanks for the feedback, Tony.

And I appreciate those that disagree, also.
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Old 10-14-2018, 10:23 AM
 
27,456 posts, read 44,959,956 times
Reputation: 14041
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
This is the weird part of city data when I’m actually unsure if I read someone making a sarcastic joke (which is how I read it) or if you’re actually a serious person.


To the OP, of course a recession is coming. We’re closing in on the longest period without one. The fed is raising rates. It’s inevitable. Giving the year 2020 is a huge time period, and I’m sure polls of economists all think there will be one by then.
Yes---
The OP is not the first or the best-known financial or economic "talking head" to promote that theory
I read it in 2017 in big compilation of coming market conditions/analysis articles from companies like Black Rock, Fidelity and much smaller, more independent writers of investment newsletters and ETFs or funds...
Not that ALL of them advocated that drastic of a downturn-and of course when they were written the market had not gotten to the downturn in 18, tariffs were not in place--but other factors like rising interest rates were factored in...

The other post--apocryphal projections have been going on since man put pen to paper--
Sometimes they get it right
1984 seems to be quoted fairly frequently now

Check out the forum on CD about preparedness--
People have felt that way in America in growing numbers probably since the Cuban Missile Crisis when I was a grade schooler...
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Old 10-14-2018, 10:50 AM
 
Location: El Pueblo de Nuestra Señora la Reina de los Ángeles del Río Porciúncula
13,549 posts, read 14,044,894 times
Reputation: 9663
As far as predicting the future, nobody could have predicted the election of DT, yet there can be no doubt of the huge effect of the 2016election on our economy.

So chart that!

I bet DT himself was mind-blown upon discovering he had won. You can be sure the RNC was {you know what}ing bricks.


This is why anything I say regarding the future of the stock market is hedged by my statement "presuming no change in administration."
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Old 10-14-2018, 11:10 AM
 
Location: Proxima Centauri
3,754 posts, read 1,592,841 times
Reputation: 4147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
Wages are not stagnant nor are they declining.

The Social Security Administration recently published the 2017 Wage Index. It represents a 3.8% growth in average wages over 2016. Wages haven been increasing. When Monetary Inflation exists, wages always rise. When Demand-pull Inflation exists, wages are not supposed to rise, because the single sole purpose of Demand-pull Inflation is to force consumers to stop consuming goods and services to prevent the depletion, over-use or over-consumption of resources, goods and services. So if Demand-pull Inflation stops you from consuming a good or service, that's a good thing, not a bad thing. If you don't like it, then find a substitute or invest your money and time to increase Supply to match Demand.

The fact that housing is high in a handful of the more than 1,500 housing markets is totally irrelevant. Housing prices are a function of Supply & Demand. In those handful of markets where housing prices are high, it is simply impossible to build single- or multi-family units fast enough so that the rate of increase of Supply offsets the rate of increase of Demand. Only when the rate of Demand decreases, and that will take a decade or more, will housing prices stabilize or start to decline.

Obviously, you're not educated enough to understand the difference between Monetary Inflation and Demand-pull Inflation.

The healthcare system has zero impact on the economy. Stock markets cannot cause a recession or end one. Again, you don't have the education to understand that the stock market has set and broken record highs during recessions, nor do you understand that the stock market has collapsed while the economy chugged along at 2.5% to 12.% GDP growth each quarter during the stock market collapse.

You can dismiss anyone as ill-informed who even thinks there's a relationship between stocks and recessions.



Did it ever occur to you that cycles exist only because they are imposed by internal or external sources?

Business expansion doesn't naturally end of its own accord. There's always an internal or external factor that brings business expansion to a halt. Early on, several recessions were caused by structural unemployment due to the rapid implementation of technology and a change in manufacturing methods. Neither situation will happen again. While many lament automation, its implementation will be so slow as to be imperceptible, and not cause structural unemployment. And there won't be any change in manufacturing methods, because there's nothing to change to.

Capital reallocation has caused a number of recessions. When Capital is reallocated, industries are abandoned or reduced, or there is an actual physical relocation of Capital from one region or area to another region or area.

The Federal Reserve has caused three recessions through its policies, namely interest rate hikes, and there's a 99% chance it will cause the next recession. Higher interest rates make continued business operations more costly, and increases the cost of expansion.

The number of working Americans jumped from 155,539,000 in August to 156,191,000 in September, an increase of 652,000 workers, so it's not like tariffs are causing job losses.



The stock market is irrelevant.

Your math is wrong. Solve for X.
48,642.15 / 100 = 50,321.89 / X


Tell me if you don't get 3.45%. I also mentioned Yield curve. This is the economics forum not politics and controversies.
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Old 10-14-2018, 11:37 AM
 
Location: El Pueblo de Nuestra Señora la Reina de los Ángeles del Río Porciúncula
13,549 posts, read 14,044,894 times
Reputation: 9663
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonyafd View Post
This is the economics forum not politics and controversies.
Our financial markets are inexorably intertwined with politics, and more so today than I have ever seen before.

I sure wish we compare statistics we have today with those that may have happened had the other party won the presidential election, but I'm no Harry Turtledove.
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Old 10-14-2018, 11:40 AM
 
Location: Proxima Centauri
3,754 posts, read 1,592,841 times
Reputation: 4147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
Wages are not stagnant nor are they declining.
When Demand-pull Inflation exists, wages are not supposed to rise, because the single sole purpose of Demand-pull Inflation is to and services to prevent the depletion, over-use or over-consumption of resources, goods and services.

Prevent depletion? Demand-pull Inflation is never induced. It is a result of hyperactivity in the marketplace.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
So if Demand-pull Inflation stops you from consuming a good or service, that's a good thing, not a bad thing. If you don't like it, then find a substitute or invest your money and time to increase Supply to match Demand.

When supply and demand are at equilibrium that is not necessarily a good thing. Maximization of profit must come into play here. You must provide only as much supply that is necessary to maximize profit. To manufacture more than is necessary to maximize profit involves excess unit cost which decreases overall profit.
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