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Old 10-15-2018, 07:00 PM
 
Location: Outside US
454 posts, read 197,983 times
Reputation: 537

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Quote:
Originally Posted by handy99 View Post
I think we are in bad times already - many investors are even or down for the year. Real Estate hasn't gone much of anywhere. Interest rates are rising and inflation is taking hold.

Health care costs are up - and headed up big time (and benefits down!).
Yes, this is a fact.

And to add to this:

Quote:
US budget deficit expands to $779 billion in fiscal 2018 as spending surges

The federal budget deficit rose 17 percent in fiscal 2018, according to the Trump administration.
Spending jumped, and revenue only increased slightly following the GOP tax cuts.

The Trump administration has pushed for dramatic budget cuts at several agencies and supported massive increases in military spending.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/15/us-b...ng-surges.html
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Old 10-15-2018, 07:03 PM
 
Location: Prepperland
13,117 posts, read 9,205,456 times
Reputation: 8988
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lovehound View Post
I'm giving the current administration until the 2020 election to take steps to balance the budget.
There will never be a balanced budget as long as the only way to authorize more federal reserve notes (pursuant to title 12 USC Sec. 411) is by deficit spending (red ink).
And you cannot challenge the validity of the (bogus) public debt (20+ trillion) pursuant to clause 4, 14th amendment, USCON.
The odds of anything changing while under the perpetual 'temporary' state of emergency (declared in 1933, and codified into law) is remote.
A collapse is more likely to occur before logic and reason is restored to government... or the electorate.
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Old 10-15-2018, 07:21 PM
 
18,260 posts, read 11,663,507 times
Reputation: 11872
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lovehound View Post
There is another issue I wish we could address. I think Congress should have term limits, perhaps 12 years maximum.

We have term limits here in NYC, and thus far it isn't the great success everyone claims.


What you generally get is a rearranging of deck chairs on the Titanic. That is those facing being term limited out of one office look around for another.


This and don't forget the prospect of *NOT* having to face voters (for whatever reasons) means a politician is free to act even if it is against overall wishes of current constituency.

If Americans overall would get off their behinds and actually vote, term limits wouldn't be necessary for Congress. But between gerrymandering and often pathetic low turnout the same egits are re-elected over and over again.
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Old 10-15-2018, 07:34 PM
 
4,729 posts, read 2,259,491 times
Reputation: 8769
Quote:
Originally Posted by handy99 View Post
I think we have passed the time where GDP is an accurate measure. But that won't matter to most politicians and partisans. Real measurement would be things like:

Longer life spans
Reduction in Suicides
Reductions in Debt and Deficit
Higher wages (no, not .1% against inflation - really higher wages).
Increases in most market indexes based on reality (higher sales and profits).
etc. etc.
Why would life spans be a measure of a recession, it's an indicator of technology and culture more than anything and economic troubles don't threaten lifespans in developed countries like they do in poorer countries. Measuring by lifespan there was no dotcom crash, no great recession, in fact one could just say there have never been recessions or bad economic times because for the most part it's been going up since as long as we've attempted to measure it.

Debt is shaky as a measurement as well, consumer debt tends to actually go down during economic crisis.
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Old 10-15-2018, 07:38 PM
 
4,729 posts, read 2,259,491 times
Reputation: 8769
Quote:
Originally Posted by jetgraphics View Post
D. Go read the law for yourself. Oh, right, even Congress doesn't bother to read laws it enacts.
That's the problem with SovCit types, they can read it but they don't understand it. The only context they get is from other SovCit "experts" who are equally clueless writing blogs and making youtube videos telling them how the law should be interpreted, which of course is counter to how our court system does.

I'm no fan of congress but an awful lot of them are lawyers and I suspect they've spent a lot more time studying and practicing law than you give them credit for, especially compared to folks who have a law degree from The University of Youtube.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jetgraphics View Post
T
A collapse is more likely to occur before logic and reason is restored to government... or the electorate.
Yes, you've been typing this over and over in this forum going back almost a decade. It's easy to be an expert when you get to use the words "imminent" and "impending" to indicate an open-ended time frame that only ends when you're the broken clock that is finally correct:

Quote:
Originally Posted by jetgraphics View Post
There is a mathematical reason why a collapse is inevitable.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jetgraphics View Post
Yup. Collapse is imminent.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jetgraphics View Post
I agree. Economic downward spiraling to collapse is imminent.
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Old 10-16-2018, 08:12 AM
 
Location: El Pueblo de Nuestra Señora la Reina de los Ángeles del Río Porciúncula
13,550 posts, read 14,051,705 times
Reputation: 9663
Quote:
Originally Posted by jetgraphics View Post
If government was reduced to "securing endowed rights" and nothing more, the government would not need a monstrous budget. But as long as millions "consent to be governed," there's little hope of that. Oh, right, you didn't learn that in government approved educational camps.
You have neglected many items such as defending the US and US citizens from foreign powers all the way to maintaining the Interstate highway system, and many items between.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TonyNC View Post
I’m 100% w/you on this Hound! I’d also add age limits. I suggest 75 - good bye Grassley, Hatch, McConnell, Pelosi, Bernie....
And don't let the door slam <<<< in their collective arse!


People, the increase in the national debt also allowed the reduction on taxes both corporate and personal, which resulted in the current boom economy.

You don't get something for nothing. I'd rather have an increment in the national debt than a continued weak economy. The improved economy will help pay for the national debt when more important issues are dealt with.
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Old 10-16-2018, 08:51 AM
 
27,461 posts, read 44,959,956 times
Reputation: 14041
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lovehound View Post
You have neglected many items such as defending the US and US citizens from foreign powers all the way to maintaining the Interstate highway system, and many items between.

And don't let the door slam <<<< in their collective arse!


People, the increase in the national debt also allowed the reduction on taxes both corporate and personal, which resulted in the current boom economy.

You don't get something for nothing. I'd rather have an increment in the national debt than a continued weak economy. The improved economy will help pay for the national debt when more important issues are dealt with.
I think you have that in reverse mode
The reduction on taxes--both corporate and personal (which more dramatically benefited higher income strata) caused a likely temporary "boom" economy and certainly predicated the increase in the national debt which has no place to go but up
The economy though is not likely to continue with a growth rate that is necessary to offset the debt drag on the economy...
THAT is why economists are almost across the board predicting a slowing of the economy in late 2019-2020...
The upside from any hurricane/natural disasters is just pulling a false assessment of the economy's underlying strength into current timespan according to many and won't be replicated under "normal" circumstances...

Of course given the indication of climate change and increased probability of mega natural disasters--either forest fires or hurricanes or tornados or rain/flooding---maybe they will be a replicating part of yearly GDP but they will also impact the insurance industry (negatively of course), government spending for disaster aid, local and state budgets which see increases for damage assistance which are all negatives for most individuals...

Having to rebuild a home with more expensive code requirements not factored into your insurance coverage is going to be a direct effect of Michael's damage in FL...
And the fund that has been covering hurricane damage in FL is going to need additional income which means higher rates for homeowners...and bigger part of the state's budget since that is what is insuring most FL homeowners with the coverage...
FL has had two really bad hurricanes in last two years
The FL elections for governor and senate are also going to be impacted by how damage from the hurricane is handled--
Rick Scott can do himself a lot of damage because he is obviously in charge of the state's response
Before Michael the polling was very tight between Scott and incumbent Nelson who don't see eye-to-eye about issues having to do with the environment/climate change/water issues not to mention others

In the Govenor's race De Santis doesn't really have a direct responsibility for hurricane relief while Gillum is more involved in the Panhandle/Tallahassee's recovery--which can be a positive or negative as results turn out
But just the effect of dealing with the hurricane's damage could skew voter turnout and make voting more problematic for either side...
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Old 10-16-2018, 09:55 AM
 
Location: El Pueblo de Nuestra Señora la Reina de los Ángeles del Río Porciúncula
13,550 posts, read 14,051,705 times
Reputation: 9663
Quote:
Originally Posted by loves2read View Post
I think you have that in reverse mode
The reduction on taxes--both corporate and personal (which more dramatically benefited higher income strata) caused a likely temporary "boom" economy and certainly predicated the increase in the national debt which has no place to go but up
The economy though is not likely to continue with a growth rate that is necessary to offset the debt drag on the economy...
We are not in fundamental disagreement. I think that new national debt is going to bite us in our arses if something is not done expeditiously.

I agree that if the national debt problem and also balancing the federal budget are not addressed by 2020 things look very bad for the economy, for the market, and for the current administration.

I think I will be much more willing to bail in the 2020 time frame if the current course does not change.

Right now we are obsessed with the mid-term election. Then we will be happy happy about holiday spending. I don't know about January 2019 and beyond.
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:06 AM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
349 posts, read 51,163 times
Reputation: 209
Quote:
Originally Posted by loves2read View Post
I think you have that in reverse mode
The reduction on taxes--both corporate and personal (which more dramatically benefited higher income strata) caused a likely temporary "boom" economy and certainly predicated the increase in the national debt which has no place to go but up
The economy though is not likely to continue with a growth rate that is necessary to offset the debt drag on the economy...
THAT is why economists are almost across the board predicting a slowing of the economy in late 2019-2020...
The upside from any hurricane/natural disasters is just pulling a false assessment of the economy's underlying strength into current timespan according to many and won't be replicated under "normal" circumstances...
...
Reading Lover has it exactly right! This just in:

U.S. Deficit Swells in Fiscal 2018 as Tax Cuts Take Bite

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-gov...le_email_share

Tax cuts led to decreased tax revenue - who’da thunk it!? Tax cuts were a sugar high which’ll go away. Deficits increasing
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:13 AM
 
Location: El Pueblo de Nuestra Señora la Reina de los Ángeles del Río Porciúncula
13,550 posts, read 14,051,705 times
Reputation: 9663
U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time

Anything above about $20T is on DT's watch. <—— (note gross approximation, I'm ballparking it)
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