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Old 10-11-2018, 12:11 AM
 
Location: Outside US
449 posts, read 196,525 times
Reputation: 531

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I'm calling it now.

Worth noting (and I may get bashed) but it may not be a textbook definition of 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth but we'll see higher unemployment, under-employment, more defaults on the typical debts, higher interest rates, and using savings to live.

Housing very high in many places, bad health care system, financial markets very high for a long time, a job market with stagnant and declining wages.

Source: basic economic articles.

If you agree or disagree, please discuss.
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Old 10-11-2018, 01:19 AM
 
Location: Prepperland
13,115 posts, read 9,199,435 times
Reputation: 8983
- - - AND THEN THE RIOTS BEGAN - - -
After a protracted period of agitation propaganda and feigned impotence of government, urban enclaves will be at the verge of civil unrest. Aggressive attacks on people, their liberty and their property have gone unanswered. Criminal enterprises are fighting for more control. Government’s response is to posture, raise taxes, go deeper into debt, and spend more to “deal with the problems.” As usual, Congress borrows more than it pays in interest, doing what Bernie Madoff went to prison for doing in the private sector.

Then “It” happens. Suddenly, the government bond market collapses. No one expects to see their money ever again, and dumps their bonds for a loss. Without new investors pouring in dollar bills, the red ink Congress relies on for authorizing new dollar bills (pursuant to 12 USC Sec 411) grabs them by the wallet. Federal and state spending precipitously rolls back, as the treasuries are wrung dry. The unmet demand for new money tokens to satisfy usury triggers widespread panic as debtors’ loans are called due on demand. Stock market values drop. The velocity of money drops. Hoarding of money begins, despite not being lawful money.

Partisan infighting complicates the matter, as funds dwindle and no one has a clear idea of priorities. The first to get cut are the recipients of public charity, the entitled masses. Pensioners are next. Then the civil service employees suffer a reduction in force. Remaining employees are urged to take a ‘hair cut’ (a drop in salary) or else ‘early retirement - without a pension!’.

As funds, food, and supplies run out, there is a scramble by the unscrupulous to exploit the situation. Widespread looting and rioting break out. There is a rush to repatriate military personnel and material stationed around the world - before the bribe money runs completely dry. Upon arrival, the military are placed at critical government enclaves to bolster security. But after weeks of unpaid service, desertions are mounting.

In short order, loosely affiliated self interest groups, who share a common language, religion, philosophy, or hatred, are roaming about, taking what they want, killing any who oppose them.

<< Insert Speculation Here >>
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Old 10-11-2018, 02:33 AM
 
2,240 posts, read 1,385,700 times
Reputation: 4894
Quote:
Originally Posted by jetgraphics View Post
- - - AND THEN THE RIOTS BEGAN - - -
After a protracted period of agitation propaganda and feigned impotence of government, urban enclaves will be at the verge of civil unrest. Aggressive attacks on people, their liberty and their property have gone unanswered. Criminal enterprises are fighting for more control. Government’s response is to posture, raise taxes, go deeper into debt, and spend more to “deal with the problems.” As usual, Congress borrows more than it pays in interest, doing what Bernie Madoff went to prison for doing in the private sector.

Then “It” happens. Suddenly, the government bond market collapses. No one expects to see their money ever again, and dumps their bonds for a loss. Without new investors pouring in dollar bills, the red ink Congress relies on for authorizing new dollar bills (pursuant to 12 USC Sec 411) grabs them by the wallet. Federal and state spending precipitously rolls back, as the treasuries are wrung dry. The unmet demand for new money tokens to satisfy usury triggers widespread panic as debtors’ loans are called due on demand. Stock market values drop. The velocity of money drops. Hoarding of money begins, despite not being lawful money.

Partisan infighting complicates the matter, as funds dwindle and no one has a clear idea of priorities. The first to get cut are the recipients of public charity, the entitled masses. Pensioners are next. Then the civil service employees suffer a reduction in force. Remaining employees are urged to take a ‘hair cut’ (a drop in salary) or else ‘early retirement - without a pension!’.

As funds, food, and supplies run out, there is a scramble by the unscrupulous to exploit the situation. Widespread looting and rioting break out. There is a rush to repatriate military personnel and material stationed around the world - before the bribe money runs completely dry. Upon arrival, the military are placed at critical government enclaves to bolster security. But after weeks of unpaid service, desertions are mounting.

In short order, loosely affiliated self interest groups, who share a common language, religion, philosophy, or hatred, are roaming about, taking what they want, killing any who oppose them.

<< Insert Speculation Here >>
This is the weird part of city data when I’m actually unsure if I read someone making a sarcastic joke (which is how I read it) or if you’re actually a serious person.


To the OP, of course a recession is coming. We’re closing in on the longest period without one. The fed is raising rates. It’s inevitable. Giving the year 2020 is a huge time period, and I’m sure polls of economists all think there will be one by then.
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Old 10-11-2018, 05:46 AM
 
Location: Philadelphia/South Jersey area
2,278 posts, read 1,033,859 times
Reputation: 7538
lol, calling what? a recession? not really a hard call because it usually follows some time after a long bull market. Sort of saying stocks will lose money. if there is only two choices it's not a hard call. Or are you calling the exact time period?

lol mega millions is 470 million bucks, how come no one ever calls the winning numbers.
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Old 10-11-2018, 06:24 AM
 
2,240 posts, read 1,385,700 times
Reputation: 4894
Quote:
Originally Posted by eliza61nyc View Post

lol mega millions is 470 million bucks, how come no one ever calls the winning numbers.
I can’t tell you the winning numbers, but I can tell you before oct 2020 someone will win the mega millions!!
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Old 10-11-2018, 07:05 AM
 
4,707 posts, read 2,251,841 times
Reputation: 8692
Quote:
Originally Posted by Returning2USA View Post
Worth noting (and I may get bashed) but it may not be a textbook definition of 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth but we'll see higher unemployment, under-employment, more defaults on the typical debts, higher interest rates, and using savings to live.

Housing very high in many places, bad health care system, financial markets very high for a long time, a job market with stagnant and declining wages.
You're really gonna stick your neck out there and say we'll have higher unemployment in 2020 than the current once-in-a-generation lowest in decades unemployment numbers?

Crazy dude. Boldness off the charts.
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Old 10-11-2018, 07:32 AM
 
7,279 posts, read 8,112,371 times
Reputation: 5366
Quote:
Originally Posted by Returning2USA View Post
I'm calling it now.

Worth noting (and I may get bashed) but it may not be a textbook definition of 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth but we'll see higher unemployment, under-employment, more defaults on the typical debts, higher interest rates, and using savings to live.

Housing very high in many places, bad health care system, financial markets very high for a long time, a job market with stagnant and declining wages.

Source: basic economic articles.

If you agree or disagree, please discuss.
*If I were pegging a time I'd say late Q4 2019. As this rally has been rolling along for so long I'm a little worried that some otherwise mild shock may catalyze recession sooner.

*FWIIW - The Business Cycle Dating Committee at the NBER defines recession like this........."a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." Nearly all last at least 2 quarters but some in the past have not. A couple have seen declines in two of three quarters. Point being the two consecutive quarters thing isn't technically correct in the US.

*Our healthcare system while not perfect probably won't have any impact on the next recession - further the healthcare system in Venezuela is bad, healthcare here is fantastic some people for whatever reasons opt out. The job market broadly is about as good as it has ever been. Broadly as well wages are improving (that's part of the reason we are seeing inflationary pressures). There are always people using savings to live.
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Old 10-11-2018, 08:57 AM
 
Location: Upstate
5,489 posts, read 6,211,928 times
Reputation: 3813
Mid to late 2020 would fit in with the presidential election cycle.
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Old 10-11-2018, 10:26 AM
 
5,470 posts, read 8,160,530 times
Reputation: 7279
Quote:
Originally Posted by eliza61nyc View Post
lol, calling what? a recession? not really a hard call because it usually follows some time after a long bull market. Sort of saying stocks will lose money. if there is only two choices it's not a hard call. Or are you calling the exact time period?

lol mega millions is 470 million bucks, how come no one ever calls the winning numbers.
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 0
(you never asked for the sequence, just the numbers!)
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Old 10-11-2018, 10:51 AM
 
2,730 posts, read 1,211,360 times
Reputation: 2089
Quote:
Originally Posted by jetgraphics View Post
- - - AND THEN THE RIOTS BEGAN - - -
After a protracted period of agitation propaganda and feigned impotence of government, urban enclaves will be at the verge of civil unrest. Aggressive attacks on people, their liberty and their property have gone unanswered. Criminal enterprises are fighting for more control. Government’s response is to posture, raise taxes, go deeper into debt, and spend more to “deal with the problems.” As usual, Congress borrows more than it pays in interest, doing what Bernie Madoff went to prison for doing in the private sector.

Then “It” happens. Suddenly, the government bond market collapses. No one expects to see their money ever again, and dumps their bonds for a loss. Without new investors pouring in dollar bills, the red ink Congress relies on for authorizing new dollar bills (pursuant to 12 USC Sec 411) grabs them by the wallet. Federal and state spending precipitously rolls back, as the treasuries are wrung dry. The unmet demand for new money tokens to satisfy usury triggers widespread panic as debtors’ loans are called due on demand. Stock market values drop. The velocity of money drops. Hoarding of money begins, despite not being lawful money.

Partisan infighting complicates the matter, as funds dwindle and no one has a clear idea of priorities. The first to get cut are the recipients of public charity, the entitled masses. Pensioners are next. Then the civil service employees suffer a reduction in force. Remaining employees are urged to take a ‘hair cut’ (a drop in salary) or else ‘early retirement - without a pension!’.

As funds, food, and supplies run out, there is a scramble by the unscrupulous to exploit the situation. Widespread looting and rioting break out. There is a rush to repatriate military personnel and material stationed around the world - before the bribe money runs completely dry. Upon arrival, the military are placed at critical government enclaves to bolster security. But after weeks of unpaid service, desertions are mounting.

In short order, loosely affiliated self interest groups, who share a common language, religion, philosophy, or hatred, are roaming about, taking what they want, killing any who oppose them.

<< Insert Speculation Here >>
For traders 2008 was a way to make more money.

BTW its coming sooner than 2020 and one of the indicators to the runup is already underway.
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