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Old 12-24-2018, 05:42 AM
 
Location: The Triad (NC)
27,213 posts, read 59,103,187 times
Reputation: 29960

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Quote:
Originally Posted by mysticaltyger View Post
Even though our CD prognosticators of doom are almost certainly wrong with their specifics and timing...
I think they are directionally correct. The U.S. and most other developed countries have oversized bureaucracies,
aging populations, sluggish economic growth..., massive money printing, and high and increasing debt levels.
And ever rising birth numbers -mostly by the cohort of the least able- requiring ever rising levels of assistance.

Quote:
These are not good signs.
No they aren't.
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Old 12-24-2018, 07:44 AM
 
8,485 posts, read 3,623,280 times
Reputation: 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by C2BP View Post
Sorry Lieqianq but every generation goes through a deflation and depression. It is built into the system, like Winter is built into the system. As long as our leaders, our mainstream economists, our thinkers have no understanding or wisdom they continue to think they can "figure it out" this time and only give us one side of nature, the Day side, the happy side, the fun side. They can't. TWO SIDES. Day AND NIGHT. During Day, the world grows. During Night it rests. During Spring nature grows. During Autumn it rests.

There is no perpetual growth. There is growth and rest. We NEED darkness, cold, contraction as much as we need light, heat and expansion.

Good Luck!
Hey if you quote my reference at least give me some credit! lol
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Old 12-24-2018, 08:00 AM
 
Location: Thailand
5,197 posts, read 2,481,200 times
Reputation: 9565
Quote:
Originally Posted by C2BP View Post
Sorry Lieqianq but every generation goes through a deflation and depression.
False.

The last time there was a year with measurable deflation was 1954, at -0.7%
The last time there was significant deflation (>3%) was 1932.

I'm not sure how you want to define "generation" but given the common generation nomenclature (boomers, millens, gen-x, etc.) are given 20 year ranges I'm not sure you support an argument that every generation goes through deflation. Someone who dies this year at median lifespan will have lived a life of having never seen a year with deflation of at least 3%, and never two years back to back.
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Old 12-24-2018, 02:42 PM
 
28,271 posts, read 45,690,145 times
Reputation: 14611
Quote:
Originally Posted by C2BP View Post
Our economy stopped expending in 2001. Greenspan understood that 2001 was the end of the Business Cycle. That is why he raised rates in 2005 and 2006. He knew he was supposed to begin raising rates, to limit more debt. He also knew that if he kept doing that he would be blamed. This is the guy who was a hero in 1999, cover of time magazine, the committee to save the world. So he retired. Turned it over to Bernanke, who had no clue and was still trying to fIX the 1930's.

Bernanke is a Mad Men. Instead of limiting debt he encouraged it, chose to delay deflation. So now we have a HUGE FED balance sheet (and HUGE CB balance sheets in Japan and the EU) that will and must be unwound. Rates will go up, currencies will strengthen. And we will get that necessary DEFLATION the Bernanke Put only delayed. The good side? Prices will collapse; housing will become affordable; homelessness will be largely solved. Medicine will become affordable. Education (higher) will become affordable. Food and cars will see prices cater.
Savings will grow. The Speculator class will be driven off with the wind.

It won't all be bad.

Debt will face the Big Crunch.

Good Luck!!!
I can't argue that Bernanke cut rates but I don't know that he had much option trying to keep the country intact after the banks/mortgage companies and investment houses went nuts over Credit Default Swaps

But if you look at the chart in this article from NYTimes in 2015 when Yellen was appointed to the Fed
You can see that Greenspan fostered higher interest rates but also lower ones

He facilitated Bush's war on two fronts that was kept off the books by not allowing that inflationary act to actually take the effect it should have on the economy...
If people had been paying for those wars through higher debt IN the BUDGET the course of the wars could have been very different...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...eve-2018-12-24
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Old 12-24-2018, 05:04 PM
 
Location: Thailand
5,197 posts, read 2,481,200 times
Reputation: 9565
C2BP also tends to categorize Fed chairman in very black & white terms, they are either "good guys" or "bad guys" without much gray area. To maintain this classification he purposely ignores lots of information, for example that Fed had made (and publicized) plans to raise interest rates and lowering balance sheets years ago, and had started the process while previous villain was still at the helm.
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Old 12-24-2018, 05:36 PM
 
28,271 posts, read 45,690,145 times
Reputation: 14611
Please don't criticize one poster as talking about Fed Chairmen as either bad or good w/o individualizing the criticism and then describe President Obama as "the previous villain"...
Unless you mean Trump is also a villain...

What makes your comment any different thanC2PB's except the target?
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Old 12-24-2018, 06:28 PM
 
Location: Thailand
5,197 posts, read 2,481,200 times
Reputation: 9565
Wow that went so far over your head it almost knocked out a GPS satellite.

Previous villain = Yellen, villain reference is because C2BP constantly berates Yellen as someone afraid to raise rates when in fact she was the one who started this chain of rate increases and balance sheet reductions.
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Old 12-24-2018, 08:45 PM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert, AZ
3,012 posts, read 1,249,557 times
Reputation: 6207
Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
False.

The last time there was a year with measurable deflation was 1954, at -0.7%
The last time there was significant deflation (>3%) was 1932.

I'm not sure how you want to define "generation" but given the common generation nomenclature (boomers, millens, gen-x, etc.) are given 20 year ranges I'm not sure you support an argument that every generation goes through deflation. Someone who dies this year at median lifespan will have lived a life of having never seen a year with deflation of at least 3%, and never two years back to back.

Please don't confuse us with facts.
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Old 12-29-2018, 12:29 AM
 
812 posts, read 449,640 times
Reputation: 1206
Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
Wow that went so far over your head it almost knocked out a GPS satellite.

Previous villain = Yellen, villain reference is because C2BP constantly berates Yellen as someone afraid to raise rates when in fact she was the one who started this chain of rate increases and balance sheet reductions.
Wrong, I constantly berate Bernanke and his failed experiment of stealing tax revenues from future generations to spend today, to avoid deflation. Yellen was a joke.

Remember, you don't handle depressions. You survive them. We've got the lowest fed funds rate in the last 100 years. People tell us if it goes up anymore the markets will crash and defaults will jump. That means we have WAY TOO MUCH DEBT.

Sorry, but there is NO RECOVERY until we get rid of the debt. Debt is essentially stealing money from the future. It looks harmless. We have professionals in banking and finance and politicians who tell us it is harmless.

Good Luck!
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Old 12-29-2018, 08:36 AM
 
8,485 posts, read 3,623,280 times
Reputation: 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by C2BP View Post
I constantly berate Bernanke and his failed experiment of stealing tax revenues from future generations to spend today, to avoid deflation.
Tell me how Bernanke does this.
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