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Old 12-31-2018, 02:35 PM
 
3,866 posts, read 2,887,723 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
My concern with all this is that somebody has to clean the toilets and pick the lettuce (or harvest romaine which is apparently a combination of those two jobs). The US-born poor don't want to do the jobs. At some point, a labor shortage for low end repetitive task jobs is going to spike wages.
Robots are the answer to that issue. There are already units that vacuum floors and mow lawns as well as entirely automated ordering kiosks and burger flipping machines for fast food. Give it a few more years and most menial labor jobs will be handled by robots ... and in 100 years or so, AI should make the human race completely unnecessary!
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Old 01-05-2019, 04:58 PM
 
Location: Trieste
896 posts, read 776,447 times
Reputation: 665
Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
Assuming all other factors equal, you need an ever-expanding workforce to pay for entitlements for the then retiring/retired generation.
no, that would be true if retirees became immortal...
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Old 01-07-2019, 08:10 AM
 
Location: Ontario, NY
2,643 posts, read 5,990,024 times
Reputation: 2613
Quote:
Originally Posted by SportyandMisty View Post
It is bad news. Every econometric model of growth of GDP has an increase in population as the most important variable.
It's this line of thinking is what is going to drive the human race to extinction. Having an ever increasing population is going to lead to resource exhaustion sooner than later. There needs to be a balance where resource replenishment is greater than or equal to population levels.
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Old 01-07-2019, 11:08 AM
 
Location: Phoenix, AZ
1,690 posts, read 1,944,540 times
Reputation: 2532
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
It took 20+ years (1996) but the Bill Clinton-era welfare reform with the 5 year lifetime cap on cash assistance (the "Temporary" in TANF); and the policy change where if you are on government assistance and pop out another kid, you get no extra cash; are working as designed. The birth rate among the generationally poor dropped like a stone at the Great Recession and hasn't increased. Combine that with much lower immigration rates and you dramatically slow population growth.


My concern with all this is that somebody has to clean the toilets and pick the lettuce (or harvest romaine which is apparently a combination of those two jobs). The US-born poor don't want to do the jobs. At some point, a labor shortage for low end repetitive task jobs is going to spike wages.
Yes, not to mention that the ever increasing costs of raising children combined with the large Millennial generation coming into economy that was the worst since the Great Depression has scared off a lot of would be parents from reproducing. This is a great thing for the planet but not so much for an economy down the road that depends on more people to consume.

Oh, and I genuinely LOL'd at the bolded part. Well done.
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Old 01-07-2019, 11:13 AM
 
Location: Chandler, AZ
1,885 posts, read 919,950 times
Reputation: 4356
Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
Assuming all other factors equal, you need an ever-expanding workforce to pay for entitlements for the then retiring/retired generation.
But since you cannot endlessly expand, you're looking at a Ponzi scheme. Someone always winds up losing out in a Ponzi scheme, and they always bleat about how unfair it is and that "someone else" should make them whole.

The only way to win in that situation is to recognize reality and plan accordingly. If your plan is to bellow about how "I did my part, I paid in, NOW I WANT WHAT'S MINE!"... unfortunately, the people you're trying to "get yours" from, who are faced with massive taxation already, will vote no.
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Old 01-07-2019, 11:17 AM
 
Location: Chandler, AZ
1,885 posts, read 919,950 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Italian (x)lurker View Post
no, that would be true if retirees became immortal...
They (as a group) effectively are.

When birth rates are declining and life spans are increasing, you get an absolutely exploding number of retirees being supported by a smaller and smaller workforce. When Socialist inSecurity started, there were 16 workers supporting each retiree. We're under 3 now, headed for 2. That is unsustainable. So is the endless deficit spending we've been using to artificially prop up the situation. That will end. There will be enormous numbers of people who don't get what they believe is supposed to be coming their way. There will be a great deal of unhappiness and bellyaching and red faces pounding fists on table. What there will not be is enough money to make everyone happy again.

Reality is staring us in the face. Some choose to ignore it because they don't like it. Some choose to accept it and plan accordingly. The group you fall into is up to you.
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Old 01-07-2019, 08:21 PM
 
12,088 posts, read 14,644,907 times
Reputation: 7829
Maybe we do need to let more immigrants in. Not h-1b types, of course, but lower skill workers who are less of a threat.
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Old 01-08-2019, 02:37 AM
 
Location: The Triad (NC)
27,225 posts, read 59,120,586 times
Reputation: 29968
Quote:
Originally Posted by ShampooBanana View Post
...has scared off a lot of would be parents from reproducing.
This is a great thing for the planet but ...
The only problem with the reductions we're seeing is that most of the self control you describe
is coming from the cohort MOST able to be responsible parents. The cohort of the LEAST able...
continue to be the problem they have always been.
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Old 01-08-2019, 05:51 AM
 
1,843 posts, read 634,657 times
Reputation: 1897
Quote:
Originally Posted by pvande55 View Post
Maybe we do need to let more immigrants in. Not h-1b types, of course, but lower skill workers who are less of a threat.
No if anything we should ONLY be taking in highly skilled self sustainable people. Truthfully, unlike other 1st world countries we actually don’t NEED anyone we are still hovering around replacement birthrates. We should be limiting immigration until the tens of millions of immigrants we’ve taken in properly assimilate and we see sustained large wage increases.
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Old 01-08-2019, 06:14 AM
 
1,843 posts, read 634,657 times
Reputation: 1897
Quote:
Originally Posted by SportyandMisty View Post
It is bad news. Every econometric model of growth of GDP has an increase in population as the most important variable.
Bull**** productivity is way more important. But don’t worry about population they’ll just import millions of people from high fertility countries like Somalia and Sudan. And after we import millions of these sub 75 IQ individuals our education system and mainstream media will teach them that all of their problems are caused by white males and capitalism. What could go wrong?
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