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Old 01-15-2019, 07:20 AM
 
1,092 posts, read 462,075 times
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Federal payments to the TSP will not be going into the stock market.

800,000 workers no contributing $300 or more bi weekly. That is 24,000,000 not going into the stock market.
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Old 01-15-2019, 12:26 PM
 
9,640 posts, read 4,116,863 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EmilyFoxSeaton View Post
Federal payments to the TSP will not be going into the stock market.

800,000 workers no contributing $300 or more bi weekly. That is 24,000,000 not going into the stock market.
The workers not being paid is already $10 billion that isn't in the economy. Spending down savings covers that fact.
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Old 01-21-2019, 03:34 PM
 
55 posts, read 15,953 times
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People that are not being paid are not contributing to federal and state taxes. Also social security and medicare.
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Old 01-22-2019, 09:50 AM
 
Location: Boston
5,830 posts, read 1,719,880 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BJfromVA View Post
People that are not being paid are not contributing to federal and state taxes. Also social security and medicare.
they will be the moment they receive that first paycheck ... for every dollar, in fact if they don't change their dependents with HR, the govt will tax that large check as if you collect it every pay period.
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Old 01-22-2019, 10:46 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
5,277 posts, read 3,529,333 times
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Nothing good.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYONGDA188S

Federt government spending as a % of gdp is 20.4%. Around 25% of the government is shut down, but it's "non-essential" stuff so it is probably not a 1:1 loss from gdp. Still, it's significant.

Let's just conservatively estimate that a 25% shutdown equals 10% less overall contribution to gdp from the government. Just that alone means GDP would drop 2% in 2019. That does not count the snowball effect that will happen the longer it goes on.

We can probably afford to go through February with the shutdown. That'll be painful for the 600k workers and annoying for the people who do direct business with the shutdown agencies, but probably no long lasting effects.

Aviation will probably be where most normal people will feel it first.

March will be when the scat starts to hit the fan. Food stamps won't get paid, and we have large businesses like Wal-Mart that make a lot of money off that. The markets would tank at that point.
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Old 01-24-2019, 09:44 AM
 
326 posts, read 56,413 times
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The less-than-17% shutdown is a complete non-event. The Federal Government just doesn't matter in the daily lives of most people.
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Old 01-26-2019, 07:51 PM
 
10,772 posts, read 5,277,724 times
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Social Security office was open, I called them yesterday. I had to wait an hour and a half though.
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Old 01-26-2019, 08:05 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
5,064 posts, read 1,664,193 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RationalExpectations View Post
The less-than-17% shutdown is a complete non-event. The Federal Government just doesn't matter in the daily lives of most people.
We understand it's a non-event for you, your investments and your daily gazing out at the working masses.

Six hundred thousand "don't matters" had no income for a month, and many had to make irreversible steps such as cashing out CDs, taking money from expensive sources or selling personal goods to put food on the table. Yes, they'll get their pay eventually... but when you're broke after 20 days and have no idea when your pay will show up, you don't go "oh, well" and light another cigar.

Southwest Airlines had to make an expensive postponement of their Hawaii service. Irreplaceable losses.

National parks took irreparable damage because there were no rangers to keep your cousins from making new trails in their ORVs and cutting down rare trees for fun and firewood.

Yup, non-event because it didn't inconvenience you personally. Got it.
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Old 01-26-2019, 09:22 PM
 
Location: Boston
5,830 posts, read 1,719,880 times
Reputation: 4301
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
We understand it's a non-event for you, your investments and your daily gazing out at the working masses.

Six hundred thousand "don't matters" had no income for a month, and many had to make irreversible steps such as cashing out CDs, taking money from expensive sources or selling personal goods to put food on the table. Yes, they'll get their pay eventually... but when you're broke after 20 days and have no idea when your pay will show up, you don't go "oh, well" and light another cigar.

Southwest Airlines had to make an expensive postponement of their Hawaii service. Irreplaceable losses.

National parks took irreparable damage because there were no rangers to keep your cousins from making new trails in their ORVs and cutting down rare trees for fun and firewood.

Yup, non-event because it didn't inconvenience you personally. Got it.
if this is the best you got, you got nothing. it's over, and forgotten, like every other shutdown.
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Old 01-26-2019, 10:18 PM
 
18,029 posts, read 12,731,262 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skeddy View Post
if this is the best you got, you got nothing. it's over, and forgotten, like every other shutdown.
Maybe for those not impacted but I assure you out of 600-800k people and their families who werenít getting paid, itís not forgotten.
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